The upcoming December 2 special election in Tennessee for an open congressional seat has attracted significant national attention, with both Republican and Democratic parties focusing resources on the contest. The election is viewed as a test of political trends and party strategies ahead of next year's midterm congressional elections.
Election Dynamics
The district, which Donald Trump won by 22 percentage points in the last presidential election, is traditionally considered conservative. However, political analysts suggest the race is closer than historical data might indicate. Democrats are actively pursuing an upset, while some Republican voters reportedly remain unaware of the election. Democratic Party figures, including former Vice-President Kamala Harris, have campaigned in the district, emphasizing the South's political importance.
Republican Party Challenges
The election occurs amidst internal discussions within the Republican Party regarding its direction and Donald Trump's ongoing influence. This has been highlighted by events such as Marjorie Taylor Greene's recent resignation from Congress. In her resignation speech, Greene stated, "No matter which way the political pendulum swings, Republican or Democrat, nothing ever gets better for the common American man or woman."
While the outcome of this single election will not alter control of the House of Representatives, a Republican loss could trigger concerns within the party, particularly at a time when Trump's political standing is under scrutiny and conservatives are observing next year's midterms with apprehension. Political science professor John Geer of Vanderbilt University suggests that Republicans may need to consider future strategies beyond Trump's immediate influence.
Economic Focus in Campaigns
Following local elections earlier this month that indicated a shift toward Democratic candidates focusing on economic issues, Republicans, including Trump, have adjusted their messaging to emphasize "affordability" – addressing concerns about high consumer prices and the rising cost of living. Trump has implemented measures such as cutting tariffs on various grocery items and proposing financial initiatives like 50-year mortgages and $2,000 tariff rebates for low- and middle-income Americans.
However, these economic strategies have faced challenges. During a recent interview, Trump debated with Fox News host Laura Ingraham about the mortgage proposal, with some conservatives expressing concerns that it would primarily benefit large banks. Ingraham also questioned his support for H1-B visas for foreign workers, which Trump defended by stating Americans sometimes lack "certain talents."
On the ground in Tennessee, as in recent elections in Virginia and Pennsylvania, economic issues have been central to voter discussions. A national poll by Vanderbilt University indicated that over 60% of Trump supporters "disagreed" that the cost of living had decreased over the past year. Professor Geer, co-director of the Vanderbilt poll, noted a "very sour" national mood regarding inflation and the economy, stating, "There's genuine unhappiness, partly because Trump made prices an issue. He said he was going to bring them down, and he hasn't."
Candidate Strategies
The Democratic nominee, state legislator Aftyn Behn, has centered her campaign on affordability and local quality of life issues. Her campaign slogans include: "Feed kids, fix roads, fund hospitals." She has criticized her Republican opponent, Matt Van Epps, for his ties to Washington Republicans. Behn stated, "If you're upset about the chaos in Washington, if you're upset about the cost of living, then I'm your candidate."
Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, an Army pilot with service in Iraq and Afghanistan, secured his primary victory with an endorsement from Donald Trump. However, his general election campaign has shown a different approach. While he held a tele-rally with Trump two weeks prior, Van Epps has largely focused his public messaging and advertising on economic concerns rather than cultural issues, aligning with Behn's campaign in this aspect. He commented on local television, "The cost of living is too high; inflation is still too high."
Future Implications for the Republican Party
The election highlights a potential shift in the Republican Party's reliance on Trump's direct electoral appeal when his name is not on the ballot. Republicans experienced significant losses in the 2018 midterms, underperformed expectations in 2022, and faced defeats earlier this month in local elections.
A Democratic victory in Tennessee would be significant. It could prompt Republicans to more thoroughly assess the implications of their current political strategies and potentially exacerbate existing divisions within the party. Even without an upset, internal party discussions are evident in Washington D.C., where Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene have expressed increased criticism of some presidential policies on healthcare, the economy, and foreign affairs.
At a Republican dinner in Crab Orchard, Chelsea Rose, representing Congressman John Rose, acknowledged the importance of the Epstein files issue to constituents, expressing hope that its resolution would allow the party to refocus. Former Representative Van Hilleary, now running for his old seat, emphasized support for Trump while acknowledging that the current measures might cause short-term disruptions.
The persistent high consumer prices, impacts from tariffs, and the looming expiration of health insurance subsidies have created challenges for the Republican coalition, even in conservative Tennessee. Despite this, some loyal Trump voters express nuanced support. Julia Timson, a schoolteacher, remarked, "If he's wrong, he's wrong. But at the same time, I would say, I'm the champion in your corner." Shane Wattenbarger, a construction contractor, described Trump as "a flat-out arrogant prick" but added, "But for this country, that's what it needs."
Trump's ability to attract new, disaffected voters while retaining long-term Republicans remains a factor. While Democrats have previously had high hopes for upsets in conservative territories that did not materialize, the current political landscape in Tennessee suggests potential for change. Professor Geer noted, "One of the things that has been common over elections over the last decade is the people have wanted change every time. And so if you want change right now, you'd vote for someone like Aftyn Behn."