Seasonal holiday employment in the United States is projected to experience a significant decline, reaching its lowest levels since the period following the 2008 recession. This trend indicates caution among US businesses in response to factors such as tariffs and broader consumer sentiment.
Overview of Seasonal Hiring Projections
The National Retail Federation anticipates that retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers for the upcoming holidays. This figure represents a reduction from the 442,000 seasonal hires recorded last year. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm, has also forecasted the weakest holiday season for retail hiring in over 15 years. Their analysis attributes this downturn to tariffs, inflation, and an increased reliance on automation.
Individual Impact
Nicholas Strahl, a 41-year-old part-time retail sales associate in Indianapolis, Indiana, reported difficulty securing additional holiday employment this year. Despite initiating his search in early October and applying to multiple retailers, he has not secured a seasonal position, a departure from previous years. Strahl plans to adjust holiday expenditures and postpone non-essential purchases if he remains unable to find supplemental work.
Labor Market Conditions
Data from Indeed indicates that while postings for seasonal work have remained largely consistent compared to the previous year, the number of individuals seeking these positions has increased. This has resulted in a larger pool of applicants competing for a static or decreasing number of jobs, particularly within the retail sector. Revelio Labs, a workforce intelligence firm, observed a 22% decrease in retail sector job openings in October compared to the same period last year, signaling reduced demand for holiday workers.
The US labor market experienced a government shutdown that concluded on November 13, delaying the release of official economic data. September's job report, released last week, showed employers added 119,000 jobs, exceeding analyst expectations. However, the unemployment rate increased marginally from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Retailer Strategies
Major retailers are demonstrating a reserved approach to seasonal hiring. Target and Walmart have not disclosed specific numbers for additional holiday staff. A Walmart spokesperson indicated that extra hours during the holiday period would primarily be allocated to existing employees, with hiring potentially managed on a store-by-store basis. This contrasts with previous years when firms announced detailed seasonal hiring plans in advance. In contrast, Amazon plans to hire the same number of individuals for its fulfillment and transportation network as in the preceding two years. Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President of Sales at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, noted that the cautious pace of announcements suggests companies are not anticipating a substantial seasonal surge.
Impact on Small Businesses
Smaller retailers are also exercising caution. Michael Brey, president of Hobby Works, a two-store toy chain in Maryland, delayed the company's usual timeline for hiring seasonal workers. Brey cited pressure from tariff costs, economic policy shifts, and concerns regarding reduced spending from government workers following a month-long federal government shutdown, as reasons for scaling back hiring to manage costs.