The United States has increased its military presence in the southern Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, a development that has prompted discussion about potential armed action and elevated tensions between the two nations.
U.S. Policy and Diplomatic Context
The Trump administration has officially designated Venezuela's government, led by President Nicolás Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organization. President Trump has publicly stated a willingness to engage in talks with Maduro while simultaneously hinting at an impending change in Maduro's leadership.
Since his first term, President Trump has advocated for Maduro's removal. The U.S. has cited Venezuela's economic decline and the emigration of an estimated 8 million Venezuelans as contributing factors to its stance. In 2019, Trump recognized opposition lawmaker Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's legitimate president. Maduro has remained in power, leading the Trump administration to consider military options.
Perspectives on Intervention and Public Opinion
Some Venezuelan figures, including opposition leader María Corina Machado, have expressed support for American military intervention. Conversely, experts like Phil Gunson, based in Caracas for the International Crisis Group, have described the notion of a straightforward post-Maduro transition to a stable government as "fantastical."
Polling data cited by one anonymous Venezuelan analyst indicates that a majority of Venezuelans would support U.S. military action to remove Maduro. Former Venezuelan government prosecutor Zair Mundaray, now in exile, articulated this sentiment by stating, "There is no other way." Opposition leader Machado has also issued a "freedom manifesto" outlining a vision for Venezuela's future.
Domestically, a CBS News and YouGov poll reported that 70% of Americans oppose U.S. military action in Venezuela, with 13% considering Venezuela a "major threat." Venezuelan opposition congressman Henrique Capriles has expressed doubt about the extent of U.S. public concern regarding Maduro.
Military Capabilities and Anticipated Resistance
While the U.S. has dispatched its largest naval flotilla to the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis, experts caution that the approximately 15,000 U.S. troops aboard these warships would likely be insufficient for controlling Venezuela, a country larger than Texas with varied terrain. A more substantial invasion force could potentially subdue Venezuela's conventional army, which might experience defections. However, significant resistance is anticipated from unconventional forces.
Jeremy McDermott, co-director of Insight Crime, identified potential opposition from pro-Maduro militias, known as "colectivos," and an estimated 1,000 Colombian guerrillas operating within Venezuela. The Maduro government has also undertaken efforts to arm and train civilians.
Strategic Challenges and Post-Intervention Questions
Speculation exists that the U.S. military buildup aims to provoke a coup within Maduro's government. However, Maduro has surrounded himself with loyalists and Cuban bodyguards. Vladimir Villegas, a Caracas radio host, noted that the U.S. pressure campaign has so far appeared to foster greater cohesion within the Maduro regime and intensify repression of the political opposition.
Capriles has raised concerns about the stability of any post-Maduro leadership, pointing to Maduro's control over all government branches and the widespread presence of his United Socialist Party. Furthermore, a U.S.-backed overthrow would likely entail significant demands for reconstruction aid, with Capriles questioning the U.S.'s willingness to allocate substantial funds for Venezuela's stabilization.
Officially, the U.S. military operation, designated "Operation Southern Spear," is described as an anti-narcotics mission. Venezuelan political analyst Benigno Alarcón has suggested that the success of such a large-scale deployment might be questioned if its primary outcome is limited to sinking drug boats. McDermott characterized the overall standoff as a "game of chicken," implying that Maduro might benefit from a prolonged situation if he can maintain his position, as the U.S. cannot sustain a major naval deployment indefinitely.