Diplomatic efforts involving the United States, Ukraine, and Russia have intensified through a series of high-level meetings and trilateral talks. These discussions aim to establish a framework for ending the nearly four-year conflict, primarily focusing on territorial disputes, security guarantees, and a potential ceasefire.
These diplomatic engagements have occurred concurrently with continued large-scale Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and reported gains on the front lines. Meanwhile, Ukraine has also sought to leverage its drone defense expertise to build new international partnerships.
Initial Diplomatic Engagements and Proposals
US President Donald Trump held an hour-long meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Davos, Switzerland. President Trump described the discussions as "productive and meaningful," noting that "everyone's making concessions."
US envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism about finalizing a deal, indicating that negotiations had narrowed to "one solvable issue," though details were not publicly disclosed.
Following this, Witkoff and Jared Kushner, envoys for President Trump, held overnight talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, which extended past 3 a.m.
During these initial stages, President Trump suggested that both Putin and Zelensky could reach a deal, noting that Putin appeared "ready" while Zelensky was "less ready" a week prior. Zelensky, after earlier talks in Miami, stated that a 20-point US plan to end the war was 90% complete, acknowledging differences between Ukraine's and Russia's positions on the Donbas region. Russia's Kremlin, in turn, reiterated that a long-term settlement required resolving the "territorial issue," referring to Moscow's demand for Kyiv to withdraw troops from eastern regions.
Zelensky later stated that peace proposals were "nearly ready" but the future status of Russian-occupied eastern Ukrainian land remained unresolved. President Trump identified "boundaries" as a primary sticking point. Separately, President Putin proposed using $1 billion from frozen Russian assets in the U.S. to contribute to Trump's Board of Peace, aimed at rebuilding Gaza, a suggestion Trump approved.
President Zelensky traveled to Davos despite having postponed his trip due to Russian strikes on Kyiv's power infrastructure, which caused outages in the capital during winter. During his address at the World Economic Forum, Zelensky criticized European allies for their perceived slow and fragmented response to the invasion. He cited inaction on defense spending, Russia's "shadow fleet," and reluctance to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's financing.
He suggested Europe appeared "lost" awaiting US leadership.
Kyiv also voiced concerns that a disagreement between President Trump and European NATO allies concerning Greenland may have shifted focus from the conflict in Ukraine.
Trilateral Peace Negotiations
Officials from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States subsequently agreed to hold trilateral talks on security issues in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking the first such meetings since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The discussions in Abu Dhabi occurred over two days, with further rounds anticipated.
Key Aspects of Discussions:
- Delegations: The Russian delegation was led by Adm. Igor Kostyukov, chief of military intelligence. Ukraine's team included Rustem Umerov, head of the National Security and Defence Council, Kyrylo Budanov, David Arakhamia, and Andrii Hnatov. The American side included Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Josh Gruenbaum, Gen. Daniel Driscoll, and Gen. Alexus Grynkewich.
- Territorial Issues: The status of Ukraine's Donbas region emerged as a primary focus. Russia demanded Ukraine withdraw troops from the entire Donetsk region, a condition Kyiv rejected. The Kremlin also referenced an "Anchorage formula," purportedly agreed upon by President Trump and President Putin, suggesting Russia control all of Donbas and maintain current front lines. Ukraine consistently refused to relinquish territory not militarily captured by Russia.
- Security Guarantees: President Zelensky announced that a US security guarantee document for Ukraine was "100% ready" following the two days of talks. He stated it awaited a signing date and would proceed to ratification by the U.S. Congress and Ukrainian parliament. Witkoff reportedly indicated that Russia had agreed to allow the US and Europe to offer "robust" security guarantees to Ukraine. Ukraine also seeks a minimum 20-year security guarantee from the US, with discussions noting a US offer of 15-year assurances.
- Economic Proposals: Russia proposed using $5 billion of its frozen assets in the US to fund the recovery of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, a proposal Ukraine dismissed, insisting frozen assets should be used for Ukraine's recovery. Russia also presented a $12 trillion economic proposal, referred to as the "Dmitriev package," to the US as part of negotiations.
- Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: Control and management of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, currently under Russian occupation, remained an unresolved topic. The White House had proposed that Ukraine and Russia jointly share the energy generated by the plant.
- Ceasefire Monitoring: Negotiators discussed the technical monitoring of a ceasefire, with the US reaffirming its role in this process. The US also proposed a ceasefire that would ban strikes on energy infrastructure.
While participants described the Abu Dhabi talks as constructive, no major breakthroughs were reported on contentious issues. Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed caution, noting it was "too early" to draw conclusions and emphasizing Ukraine's clear position and framework for dialogue. He stressed Russia's need to be prepared for compromises.
Subsequent rounds of trilateral talks were scheduled for Geneva and possibly Miami. President Zelensky indicated that Russia changed its chief negotiator for the Geneva talks, interpreting it as a potential tactic to delay decisions. In Geneva, talks were described as "very tense," lasting six hours, and focusing on "security issues and humanitarian matters" from the Ukrainian side, and "territories and everything else related to the demands we have put forward" from the Russian side.
Prisoner Exchanges
A significant outcome of the US-brokered talks was the agreement on prisoner exchanges. Two rounds of exchanges occurred, facilitated by the United States and the United Arab Emirates.
- In the first exchange, 314 prisoners of war were swapped on Thursday at the Ukrainian border, the first such event in five months. Russia returned 157 servicemen and three Russian nationals, while Ukraine returned 150 servicemen and seven civilians. Ukrainian officials noted that 18 of the returned service members had been "illegally sentenced by Russia," with some being critically underweight.
- A second exchange saw each side release 200 prisoners of war, representing an initial phase of an agreement to swap a total of 500 individuals from each nation.
Ceasefire Claims and Renewed Attacks
US President Donald Trump stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to a one-week cessation of attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian areas, claiming he personally requested this halt. The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later confirmed Trump's personal request, stating Russia agreed to pause strikes on energy infrastructure until Sunday to create favorable negotiation conditions, but clarified any ceasefire would only hold until Sunday, contradicting Trump's week-long claim.
Despite these claims, Russia resumed significant aerial attacks. Hours after initial ceasefire discussions, Russia launched its largest aerial attack of the year. Subsequent large-scale drone and missile attacks targeted Ukrainian cities, particularly energy infrastructure, causing widespread damage and casualties.
- Attacks on Kyiv resulted in fatalities, injuries, and heating/water outages amid freezing temperatures.
- Kharkiv also sustained attacks, damaging a maternity hospital and a dormitory.
- Zelensky reported Russia launched over 370 drones and 21 missiles overnight, primarily targeting the energy sector.
- Russia later launched over 70 missiles and 450 drones across Ukraine, concluding a brief energy ceasefire.
- On another occasion, Russia launched over 400 drones and approximately 40 missiles, forcing Ukrainian nuclear power plants to reduce output and exacerbating power deficits across the country.
- Russian drone strikes also killed 12 miners in the Dnipropetrovsk region and caused other civilian casualties.
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russia's actions violated discussions and questioned the reliability of Russian commitments given the perceived deception regarding the truce. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha asserted that President Putin waited for temperatures to drop and stockpiled munitions to continue attacks.
Ukraine also intensified its long-range drone and missile attacks on Russian territory, targeting oil refineries, chemical plants, ammunition depots, and military logistics hubs. Ukrainian forces struck a plant in Russia's Tver region that produces components for missile fuel and later hit an industrial facility in Russia's Udmurt Republic identified as a key state-owned missile factory, resulting in 11 injuries. Ukraine reportedly launched more cross-border attack drones than Russia in March 2026 for the first time since the war began.
Escalation of Conflict and Casualties
The conflict continued along the approximately 1,000-1,250-kilometer front line in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian forces reportedly made incremental gains in rural areas and intensified efforts on frontline defenses. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia's spring-summer offensive was underway, with Russian troops attempting to breach defensive lines in multiple strategic areas.
Casualty figures were provided by both sides. President Zelensky stated that approximately 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the invasion, and that he aimed to increase Russian casualties or seriously injured personnel to 50,000 per month. The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies reported nearly 1.2 million Russian casualties, a report dismissed by Moscow as unreliable. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported almost 15,000 Ukrainian civilians killed and over 40,000 wounded since the war's beginning. Human Rights Watch noted a 31% increase in Ukrainian civilian casualties in the past year.
Ukraine's Drone Diplomacy and Middle East Context
Ukraine has developed advanced, combat-tested drone interceptor systems and has sought to leverage this expertise internationally. President Zelensky announced that Ukraine finalized 10-year security agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with a similar agreement anticipated with the UAE. These agreements include joint defense industry projects, co-production facilities, and technological partnerships.
Ukraine is assisting five countries—the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan—in countering drone attacks, particularly from Iran, and in return, seeks high-end air-defense missiles for its defense against Russia. Ukraine has dispatched military experts to the Middle East for this purpose.
The Middle East conflict, which began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation, has led to a partial shift in global attention from the Russia-Ukraine war. This has resulted in the postponement of new rounds of US-brokered talks on Ukraine. President Zelensky noted that the necessary signals for a trilateral meeting were not present due to the situation involving Iran.
American Patriot air-defense missiles have been redeployed from Europe to the Middle East, leading Zelensky to caution that Kyiv anticipates shortages of Patriot systems. He also criticized a temporary US waiver on Russian oil sanctions, stating it was "not the right decision" and could provide Russia with $10 billion for its war efforts.
President Trump, however, rejected Ukraine's offer of assistance with drone defenses, stating the US does not require their help and possesses superior drone knowledge and technology.
This rejection occurred despite earlier reports that Kyiv had agreed to a US request for assistance in protecting American military bases in Jordan.
International Perspectives and Future Outlook
The US has proposed a June deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach an agreement, indicating it would apply pressure on both sides if not met. The US aims to conclude the conflict by early summer and has proposed hosting the next round of trilateral talks in Miami.
European leaders at the Munich Security Conference emphasized the importance of self-reliance and mutual defense for Europe's security, with some stating an urgent need for Europe to take a primary role in its own defense. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte affirmed that a strong US presence in Europe would continue, while Europe incrementally increases its contributions. NATO launched the Arctic Sentry mission due to increased Russian and Chinese activity in the High North.
Concerns were raised by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen about continued US interest in acquiring Greenland, calling the associated pressure "totally unacceptable" and stating it "damages" the NATO alliance.
President Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's objective for European Union membership by 2027, describing it as an "economic security guarantee." However, the EU has faced challenges in its support for Ukraine, including objections from Hungary to sanctions and the blocking of a 90 billion euro loan package. Russia has stated it will not engage in discussions with EU officials regarding an end to the war, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov describing EU leadership as "incompetent."
Ukrainian President Zelensky also stated that elections in Ukraine could only occur two months after a ceasefire to ensure voter security, in response to calls for early presidential elections. Estonia's intelligence service assessed that Russia is currently unable to launch an attack on NATO in the next one to two years, but plans a significant increase of its forces along NATO's eastern flank.
They also indicated that President Putin has no current intention to halt the invasion, believing he can achieve a military victory and "outsmart" the United States in discussions.