The upcoming Dutch general election on Wednesday presents a tight contest, with the anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders experiencing a decline in support, according to final opinion polls. Despite potentially winning the most votes, Wilders faces significant challenges in forming a new government due to rival parties' refusal to collaborate with him. Dutch voters are addressing multiple national crises, including a housing shortage, overcrowded asylum centers, and rising costs of living, marked by high rents and healthcare expenses.
Election Overview
Voting at over 10,000 polling stations across the country begins at 07:30 local time (06:30 GMT) on Wednesday and concludes at 21:00 (20:00 GMT). Analysis suggests that the party securing second place in the vote could be more influential in forming the next government than the first-place finisher. Should Wilders' party come first, the subsequent Dutch government is anticipated to emerge from the center-left or center-right. The race remains open, with over a third of Dutch voters reportedly undecided on the eve of the election. Up to 15 parties are projected to win seats in the 150-seat parliament, with opinion polls indicating four main contenders: Wilders' PVV, GreenLeft-Labour under Frans Timmermans, liberal D66 led by Rob Jetten, and the centre-right Christian Democrats with Henri Bontenbal.
Key National Issues
Housing Crisis
Almost half of Dutch voters identify the housing crisis as their top priority. The country, with a population of 18 million, faces a shortage of nearly 400,000 homes. This issue has been a central topic in pre-election TV debates. While Wilders attributes the crisis to migration, other perspectives point to an increase in single-person households and planning bottlenecks. Most parties have pledged to address the issue. Frans Timmermans has committed to delivering at least 100,000 new homes annually if his party takes office, while Rob Jetten of the liberals proposes building on 1% of agricultural land.
Economic Concerns
Unemployment reached 4% last month, the highest rate in the Netherlands for four years, although it remains low in European terms. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits increased by 8.8% over the past year.
Geert Wilders' Political Position
Geert Wilders' PVV was the leading party in the November 2023 general election. Recent opinion polls suggest a decrease in his party's support ahead of the current vote. Wilders was involved in the previous government, which he contributed to bringing down in June last year following a disagreement over immigration policy. During that period, his coalition partners refused to appoint him prime minister, leading to a technocrat cabinet headed by former spy chief Dick Schoof, which ultimately failed. Dilan Yesilgöz, leader of the conservative-liberal VVD and a former coalition partner, has stated that Wilders' party operates without members. Her own VVD party is currently polling in fifth place. Wilders issued an apology to Frans Timmermans after two Freedom Party MPs shared AI-generated images depicting the left-wing leader in handcuffs.