Sudan has been engaged in a civil war for two and a half years, leading to widespread destruction and displacement. Multiple peace initiatives have not resulted in a resolution.
US Engagement
US President Donald Trump initially indicated that the conflict was not a primary focus for his administration. However, a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ten days prior prompted a change. Following the briefing, President Trump stated an intention to address the situation in Sudan and subsequently posted on social media about "tremendous atrocities" in the country, pledging to collaborate with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to end the violence. The United States had previously been involved in diplomatic efforts concerning Sudan.
Recent Developments in the Conflict
In late October, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured el-Fasher, the Sudanese army's last stronghold in the Darfur region, after a 500-day siege. Reports indicate significant casualties, destruction, and acts of violence, including killings, rapes, and looting, during the RSF's advance. Estimates suggest that over 5,000 individuals perished in the events following the capture of el-Fasher.
Positions of Warring Parties
Following the capture of el-Fasher, RSF head Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemedti," announced a readiness for a ceasefire. In contrast, Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) chief Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the UN-recognized government, rejected the ceasefire proposal, vowing to continue military operations. Elements within Burhan's camp have described the RSF as a "terrorist rabble" requiring complete defeat.
Regional Involvement and Peace Initiatives
Regional states have provided support to different factions in the conflict. Egypt and Turkey have increased arms supplies to the Sudanese army. Saudi Arabia also leans towards supporting the army. The UAE has been reported by investigative journalists and intelligence agencies to be arming the RSF, a claim consistently denied by the UAE.
For six months, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior advisor for Africa Massad Boulos have been developing a peace plan. This initiative established the "Quad" — comprising the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — and outlined three key objectives:
- A comprehensive ceasefire
- Unimpeded access for humanitarian aid
- Negotiations for the establishment of a civilian-led government
The Quad affirmed this plan in September and reconvened in Washington the previous month, though it did not bridge the divide between the Sudanese belligerents, particularly after the RSF's offensive on el-Fasher.
Challenges to International Mediation
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's appeal to President Trump potentially amplifies the Quad plan's influence, particularly if it prompts direct US engagement with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain a regional rivalry for influence, extending to countries such as Yemen and Syria, and possess differing policy stances, notably regarding the Muslim Brotherhood.
The UAE considers the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization. Given that General Burhan's coalition includes Islamists, who held significant power during the 1989-2019 rule of former President Omar al-Bashir, the UAE has opposed this alignment. Burhan's interpretation of the Saudi Crown Prince's intervention may prioritize Saudi mediation while potentially sidelining the UAE, which could further escalate the conflict.
Effective intervention would require substantial US pressure on the UAE to cease alleged support for the RSF. However, considering broader US strategic interests with the UAE, such as the Abraham Accords and significant investment partnerships, the US administration has not publicly reprimanded the UAE regarding Sudan and is not anticipated to impose economic sanctions. Current US efforts rely on quiet diplomacy to encourage the UAE to leverage its influence for peace.
Humanitarian Needs and Future Prospects
The humanitarian situation in Sudan is critical, with a reported $3 billion urgently required for aid amidst reduced global aid budgets. Any potential truce would be fragile without a significant increase in humanitarian assistance. The Sudanese population remains deeply divided, and public trust in the military leadership is low. Civilians who initiated protests against former President al-Bashir seven years ago continue to advocate for democracy and justice. Concerns exist among many Sudanese that an Arab-led peace process could lead to Sudan becoming an Arab dependency.