M23 Rebels Capture and Withdraw from DR Congo's Uvira Amidst Peace Accord Doubts

The M23 rebel group recently captured the strategic city of Uvira in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo), an action that occurred shortly after a US-brokered peace agreement was signed between DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame in Washington on December 4. Following international condemnation and pressure from the United States, the M23 announced its withdrawal from Uvira. The DR Congo government has expressed skepticism regarding the withdrawal, seeking verification amidst ongoing regional accusations of external support for the rebels and significant humanitarian displacement.

Capture and Announced Withdrawal from Uvira

The M23 rebel group declared it had "fully liberated" Uvira, a key city in eastern DR Congo located near the Burundian border. Reports from residents and military sources indicated a retreat by government soldiers, although South Kivu Governor Jean-Jacques Purusi publicly denied these claims, stating the city remained under government control. Local media and a rights official, however, reported rebel presence in central Uvira. The offensive on Uvira followed earlier M23 captures of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, and Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, breaching defense lines of the DR Congo army, allied militias, and Burundian troops.

Subsequently, M23 leader Bertrand Bisimwa announced the group had commenced withdrawal from Uvira, stating it was "under way" and "for the sake of peace," with completion anticipated by Thursday. The M23 attributed this decision to pressure from the United States and described it as a "trust-building measure" for the Qatar-brokered peace process. Bisimwa urged mediators and international partners to ensure the city's protection from "reprisals, violence, and remilitarisation."

The DR Congo government, through spokesman Patrick Muyaya, viewed the reported withdrawal as a "diversion" and stressed the necessity of confirming the situation on the ground.

Muyaya questioned the specifics of the withdrawal, including the rebels' destination and what might be left behind. On-ground observations by Uvira residents and a local civil society member indicated a lack of clarity regarding the M23's complete departure, with rebel trucks reportedly still active and police officers affiliated with the group remaining present. Despite the announced withdrawal, the M23 continues to control substantial parts of eastern DR Congo, including Goma and Bukavu.

Regional and International Reactions

The United States and European powers alleged Rwandan backing for the M23 offensive, with UN experts having previously noted Rwanda's significant influence or "de facto control" over the rebel force's operations. US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, stated that Rwanda was moving the Great Lakes region towards war. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the capture of Uvira violated the recent peace agreement and stated the US would "take action to ensure promises made to the President are kept."

A joint statement from the US, EU, and eight European governments called for an immediate halt to "offensive operations" by M23 and the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), and for Rwandan troops to withdraw from eastern DR Congo.

Rwanda has denied these allegations, countering that the DR Congo and Burundian armies had violated a ceasefire by bombing Rwandan border villages and massing troops in South Kivu. Rwanda's foreign ministry asserted that DR Congo was "never ready to commit to peace," suggesting President Tshisekedi's participation in the Washington accord was coerced. The DR Congo government similarly accused President Kagame of intentionally abandoning the Washington Accord and undermining US peace efforts.

Burundi, historically aligned with DR Congo, expressed concerns that an M23 consolidation in South Kivu could bolster the Burundian rebel group Red Tabara, which operates from South Kivu and has previously attacked Burundi. Both Burundi and Rwanda accuse each other of supporting rebel factions.

Strategic Significance of Uvira and Motivations

Uvira holds strategic importance as the DR Congo government's primary military hub in South Kivu and as a crucial supply route and entry point for Burundian troops into eastern DR Congo. It is located approximately 27 km (17 miles) from Burundi's capital, Bujumbura.

Analysts have suggested several motivations for the M23's offensive:

• Leverage in Negotiations: Professor Jason Stearns indicated that the M23's objective was to gain leverage in ongoing negotiations.
• Mistrust: Stearns also noted a perception within the Rwandan government regarding a lack of trustworthiness from President Tshisekedi.
• Burundian Troop Withdrawal: Bram Verelst of the Institute for Security Studies suggested the assault might aim to compel Burundi to withdraw its troops, with initial reports indicating some Burundian troops appeared to be withdrawing.
• Bargaining Chip: Yale Ford, an Africa Analyst, predicted the M23 would establish an administration in Uvira and utilize its military gains as a bargaining tool in future peace discussions.

The M23 stated its objectives were peace, population protection, state rebuilding in DR Congo, and regional stability, asserting no territorial ambitions beyond national borders.

Humanitarian Impact and Displacement

The recent offensive led to significant displacement and a worsening humanitarian situation. The United Nations reported approximately 200,000 people displaced in eastern DR Congo since early December, with at least 74 fatalities, primarily civilians, and 83 injuries requiring hospitalization. Aid agencies reported approximately 50,000 people sought refuge in Burundi in the past week, with Burundian administrative sources documenting over 30,000 arrivals in one week, and over 8,000 daily arrivals in recent days. The UN refugee agency, UNCHR, highlighted the vulnerability of children, women, and pregnant women among the displaced, some reporting periods without food.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is providing emergency assistance, treating an average of 200 people daily in Ndava, north-west Burundi, and warned of the potential spread of epidemic diseases, including cholera, measles, and an anticipated increase in malaria cases. The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) is expanding aid efforts to support over 210,000 vulnerable individuals and is providing hot meals to 71,000 new Congolese arrivals in transit centers in Burundi. WFP reported severe impacts on essential services in South Kivu, including looting of health centers, unavailability of medicines, and school closures, and has appealed for urgent funding. Separately, Rwanda reported over 1,000 civilians displaced into its territory due to alleged bombing of Rwandan border villages by DR Congo and Burundian armies.

Military Dynamics

Professor Stearns estimated the M23's fighting force to be over 10,000, suggesting a potential "influx" of Rwandan troops for the Uvira offensive. He attributed M23's successes to the discipline of the Rwandan army. Both sides have utilized drone technology, with Rwandan forces reportedly employing it more effectively. South African troops, previously deployed to support the DR Congo army, had withdrawn after the M23 seized Goma earlier in the year.

Challenges to Peace Processes

The US-brokered peace agreement between DR Congo and Rwanda, which then-US President Donald Trump described as "historic," appears to be on a "troubled path," according to Professor Stearns. Its success was contingent on the DR Congo army disarming the FDLR militia, which Rwanda considers a threat due to its involvement in the 1994 genocide. Stearns expressed skepticism about the DR Congo army's current capacity to undertake such an operation. Economic cooperation, envisioned to attract US investment in areas like hydro-electric power, mining, and infrastructure, is deemed unlikely while fighting persists.

The M23 was not a signatory to the Washington deal but participates in a separate peace process facilitated by Qatar, which maintains strong diplomatic ties with Rwanda and is an ally of the United States. This parallel peace process in Doha is also reportedly on hold following the M23 offensive. President Tshisekedi reportedly faces significant public pressure due to unfulfilled promises to end conflict in the east and potential pressure from parts of the army. He is reportedly relying on US diplomatic pressure to influence Rwanda to withdraw support for the M23, as the Congolese army faces challenges in mounting a response.

Historical Context and Economic Interests

Eastern DR Congo has experienced prolonged conflict for over three decades, dating back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Multiple peace agreements initiated since the 1990s have not held. The region is characterized by numerous armed groups competing with central authorities for power and control over resources.

The Trump administration expressed hopes that its peace initiative would facilitate increased US corporate investments in the resource-rich region.

The US State Department reported in 2023 that DR Congo possesses an estimated $25 trillion (£21.2 trillion) in mineral reserves, including cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, and tantalum, which are essential for manufacturing electronic components in various technologies.