Pakistan and Afghanistan: Escalating Military Actions Amid Calls for De-escalation
Pakistan and Afghanistan have engaged in escalating military actions, including airstrikes and cross-border attacks, following a series of militant incidents and allegations of support for armed groups. The exchanges have resulted in reported casualties on both sides, including civilians, and a declaration from Pakistan of an "open war" with the Afghan Taliban government. International bodies and several nations have called for de-escalation and a return to diplomatic dialogue.
Initial Pakistani Airstrikes and Afghan Response
On February 21, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan's Nangarhar and Paktika provinces. Pakistani authorities stated these operations targeted "camps and hideouts" of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates, as well as an Islamic State group affiliate. Pakistan claimed approximately 70-80 militants were killed and asserted it possessed "conclusive evidence" that recent attacks on its soil were orchestrated by Afghanistan-based leadership.
These strikes followed a series of attacks in Pakistan, including:
- A suicide bombing on February 6 at a Shia mosque in Islamabad, which killed between 31 and 36 worshippers and wounded 170. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for this attack.
- An attack involving an explosives-laden vehicle days later in Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, resulting in the deaths of 11 soldiers and one child. Pakistani authorities identified the attacker as an Afghan national.
- A suicide bombing on February 21 in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which killed two soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel.
Afghanistan's Ministry of Defence reported that the Pakistani strikes on February 21 hit a religious school and residential homes, causing fatalities and injuries, including women and children. Afghan sources indicated at least 17-18 people were killed in Nangarhar alone, with overall casualties reported as "dozens" killed or wounded. The UN mission in Afghanistan later reported at least 13 civilian deaths from these strikes. Afghanistan condemned the strikes as a violation of its airspace and sovereignty and summoned Pakistan's ambassador to Kabul to protest the actions. India also condemned the Pakistani airstrikes, expressing support for Afghanistan's sovereignty.
Escalation to "Open War"
On February 27, Afghanistan launched cross-border attacks on Pakistani military positions, which it described as a response to the earlier Pakistani airstrikes. Afghanistan's Ministry of Defence claimed 55 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 19 Pakistani army posts and two bases were destroyed, while reporting 8 Afghan soldiers killed and 11 wounded. Pakistan described this as "unprovoked firing" and denied claims of captured posts.
Hours later, on February 27, Pakistan carried out extensive airstrikes in Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, and in Kandahar and Paktia provinces. Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif declared an "open war" with Afghanistan, stating that Pakistan's "patience has run out." Pakistani officials stated these strikes targeted "military installations," "terrorist support infrastructure," and "core headquarters of Afghan Taliban forces," claiming between 133 and 274 Afghan Taliban fighters were killed and over 200 to 400 were wounded. Pakistan also reported operations against Afghan Taliban forces in several districts within its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed the Pakistani airstrikes but initially reported no casualties from these specific strikes in Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia. However, other Afghan officials later reported seven civilians wounded, including a woman in serious condition, near the Torkham border crossing after a mortar shell reportedly hit a refugee camp. Afghanistan also claimed that a Pakistani airstrike on a drug rehabilitation center this month resulted in approximately 400 fatalities, a claim Pakistan rejected, stating it targeted "military installations and terrorist support infrastructure."
Continued Clashes and Civilian Casualties
Cross-border fighting, including gunfire and shelling, continued in the Torkham border area through March 1-2. Afghanistan reported thwarting an attempted Pakistani airstrike on Bagram Air Base on March 2, stating Afghan forces used anti-aircraft and missile defense systems. Satellite imagery analysis later indicated damage to a hangar and two warehouses at Bagram. Afghan officials also reported that Pakistani drone attacks hit civilian homes in Nangarhar province on March 1, killing a woman and a child, and that mortar fire killed another civilian in Paktia province.
On March 2, heavy fighting and airstrikes were reported in Khost province, where local sources indicated at least 20 civilians, many of them children, were killed. In Kunar province, strikes and clashes reportedly caused 13 civilian casualties. The UN reported at least 146 civilian casualties, including 42 deaths, in Afghanistan between February 26 and March 2. The Taliban reported 110 civilian casualties, including 65 women and children, and 8,400 internally displaced persons during the same period. Pakistan reported downing several small drones during this period. Pakistani security officials claimed their forces controlled an Afghan post and a 32-square-kilometer area in the southern Zhob sector, a claim dismissed by Afghanistan.
Later, a mortar fired from Afghanistan impacted a home in Bajaur, Pakistan, resulting in the deaths of at least four family members and injuries to two others. Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari stated Afghanistan's government had "crossed a red line" by launching drone attacks on civilian areas.
Underlying Tensions and Allegations
The recent escalation is rooted in long-standing tensions, primarily driven by Pakistan's allegations that Afghanistan's Taliban government harbors the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and allows the group to use Afghan soil to launch attacks within Pakistan. Pakistan states it has urged Kabul to take verifiable steps to prevent armed groups from using Afghan territory, alleging a lack of substantial action. The TTP, which emerged in 2007, maintains ideological ties with the Afghan Taliban but is a distinct group. Both the TTP and the Afghan Taliban government deny these accusations, with Kabul asserting that militancy is Pakistan's internal problem and that its territory is not used against other countries.
The 1,600-mile Durand Line, the shared frontier established in 1893, is recognized by Pakistan as its western border but is not accepted by Afghanistan as a legitimate boundary. Relations between the two countries have been strained since the Taliban's return to power in 2021, with deadly border clashes reported in October of the previous year. A fragile ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Turkiye had largely held but failed to produce a formal peace agreement in subsequent talks. Pakistan recently announced it ended this ceasefire.
Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif also alleged that the Taliban had transformed Afghanistan into a "colony of India" and was engaged in the "export of terrorism," expressing concerns over India's increasing engagement with Afghanistan. Afghanistan's Taliban authorities have accused Pakistan of harboring fighters linked to the Islamic State, a charge denied by Islamabad.
Pakistan has historically hosted millions of Afghan refugees. In October 2023, Pakistan initiated a program to expel undocumented migrants, leading to millions returning to Afghanistan.
International Calls for De-escalation
The intensified conflict has prompted widespread international concern and calls for de-escalation:
- United Nations: Secretary-General António Guterres urged both nations to protect civilians, uphold international law, and resolve differences through diplomacy. The UN human rights chief also called for "urgent political dialogue."
- China: Expressed deep concern, urged dialogue, and offered to mediate.
- Russia: Urged both Afghanistan and Pakistan to cease cross-border strikes, return to dialogue, and offered mediation if requested.
- Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and the European Union: All urged restraint, dialogue, and diplomatic resolution. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan engaged in separate phone calls with counterparts from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
- Former US Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad: Warned of further civilian casualties and suggested a monitored diplomatic agreement.
Humanitarian and Regional Context
The military escalation coincides with severe flooding in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, which has resulted in at least 45 deaths and 74 injuries over five days. Afghanistan, facing economic challenges and reduced international aid since 2021, is particularly vulnerable to such events. The broader regional geopolitical landscape, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, is also noted by analysts as potentially diverting international attention from the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict.