Myanmar's Military Holds Phased Elections Amid Civil Conflict

Myanmar's military administration has commenced a series of phased general elections, with the first stage held on December 28. These elections are scheduled to conclude by late January 2025. The military administration states the elections aim to restore national stability and alleviate diplomatic isolation. However, critics and the opposition characterize them as illegitimate and a means to perpetuate military rule amidst an ongoing civil conflict that escalated after the 2021 military coup.

"The military administration states the elections aim to restore national stability and alleviate diplomatic isolation, while critics and the opposition characterize them as illegitimate and a means to perpetuate military rule."

Phased Elections Underway

The multi-stage election process began on December 28, with subsequent rounds scheduled for January 11 and January 25. Results are anticipated by the end of January. The military administration, which seized power in February 2021, presents these elections as a return to democracy and stability. However, Military leader Min Aung Hlaing has acknowledged that elections will not be conducted in approximately half of the country, comprising contested or rebel-held areas. Following the first phase on December 28, a junta spokesperson announced a voter turnout exceeding 50 percent.

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is backed by the military, held campaign rallies, including one in Aungmyaythazan, Mandalay. This party is widely expected to secure a significant victory.

A Divided Stance on Participation

Advocacy for Participation
Ko Ko Gyi, a pro-democracy activist and candidate for the People's Party, has advocated for public participation in the elections. He describes it as a "pragmatic" approach to effect change through the ballot box.

Ko Ko Gyi suggested that an elected parliament would allow representatives a platform to address national issues. He was a leader in the 1988 student uprising and spent over 17 years imprisoned for his activism.

Criticism and Boycott Calls
Conversely, Western governments and various civil rights organizations have described the elections as not genuinely democratic, asserting they are designed to perpetuate military influence through allied political parties. Calls for a boycott have been widespread.

Naw Susanna Hla Hla Soe, an elected member of parliament from the National League for Democracy (NLD) and a minister in the National Unity Government (NUG), a government-in-exile, characterized the elections as a "trap" leading to "another era of dictatorship." Rebel groups have also characterized the elections as illegitimate. Sui Khar, Vice Chairman of the Chin National Front, questioned the practicability of elections given the military's limited control in Chin State.

Some individuals have expressed apprehension about the elections. One citizen cited an obligation to vote due to concerns about potential military conscription for family members, while another described the election as a "sham" intended to "cover up brutality." Some families have stated they are boycotting the elections, distrusting the results.

Elections Amidst Escalating Conflict

The elections are set against the backdrop of an intensified civil conflict that followed the 2021 military coup. Independent conflict monitors estimate approximately 80,000 to 90,000 conflict-related fatalities since the coup, with other reports citing at least 16,600 civilian deaths and over 22,500 political prisoners. Approximately 3.6 million people are internally displaced, and aid agencies report over 11 million people face food insecurity.

The military has conducted air and drone strikes and ground offensives as it seeks to control territory contested by ethnic armies and militia groups. A 30 percent increase in aerial strikes has been reported compared to the previous year. Military operations have led to civilian displacement, with thousands fleeing their homes in areas such as Chin State, some seeking refuge in India's Mizoram state.

Documented military actions include:

• A hospital in Rakhine State was reportedly struck, resulting in approximately 30 fatalities and over 70 injuries.
• The World Health Organization (WHO) has recorded 67 attacks on health facilities in Myanmar this year.
• The Chin Human Rights Organisation reported at least three schools and six churches in Chin State were targeted by air strikes since mid-September, leading to 12 deaths, including six children. A school bombing in Vanha village on October 13 was independently verified, resulting in the deaths of two students.

People's Defence Forces (PDFs) control numerous villages and conduct ambushes against army convoys in contested regions.

Human Rights Under the Junta

The military administration continues to detain political figures. Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the NLD, remains imprisoned, believed to be held in a military prison in Nay Pyi Taw. Her son, Kim Aris, has expressed concern for her well-being, though a junta spokesman stated she is in good health. She has not met with her lawyers for at least two years and has received cumulative jail sentences totaling 27 years on charges widely considered fabricated. The NLD, which won a majority of seats in the 2020 general election, has been dissolved by the military administration and is banned from participating in the current elections.

Approximately 22,600 political prisoners are reportedly held in Myanmar. In August, UN investigators reported patterns of "atrocities" involving summary executions and systematic torture of detainees.

The military administration has implemented new laws criminalizing "interference" in the electoral process, reportedly leading to the detention of hundreds of individuals for actions such as advocating an election boycott or posting critical content on social media. Penalties include potential prison terms. In one instance, three individuals in Yangon received sentences ranging from 42 to 49 years for distributing stickers depicting a bullet and a ballot box.

In February 2024, the military reactivated a conscription law, mandating military service for men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27 for up to two years, with specialists serving up to three years. Approximately 16 conscription rounds have been conducted, reportedly calling up about 5,000 individuals per round, with estimates suggesting up to 80,000 young Burmese have entered the military.

Global and Regional Reactions

United Nations Secretary General António Guterres, speaking at an ASEAN summit in October, questioned the feasibility of free and fair elections in Myanmar given the current conflict and the military's human rights record. Most Western governments have declined to send observers, characterizing the elections as illegitimate.

China, along with Russia and to a lesser extent India, has expressed support for the elections. Analysts indicate that China views Myanmar's military as a stabilizing force necessary to protect significant infrastructure projects, such as gas and oil pipelines, and broader geopolitical ambitions for a "China-Myanmar economic corridor." China has reportedly pressured ethnic armed organizations in the north to cede territory and to cease arming other rebel factions.

The military administration has also engaged with two US-based PR companies, reportedly signing contracts worth millions of dollars in August, aimed at influencing international perception and easing US sanctions.

Public Mood and Opposition Strategy

Public expression regarding the election is restricted, with citizens in some areas expressing apprehension. While some young individuals involved in the armed resistance reportedly show signs of fatigue and seek livelihood opportunities in neighboring countries, others remain committed to ending military involvement in politics. Rebel commanders express frustration over the opposition's coordination.

Conversely, some analysts observe a growing sentiment among parts of the populace for any measure that might offer relief from the protracted conflict, economic hardship, and displacement. Some citizens perceive the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) as lacking a clear plan, leading some to consider that a military-backed regime might offer a path to stabilization.

A History of Military Influence

Myanmar's history includes a prior period of military rule and a subsequent political opening. In 2010, after nearly 50 years in power, the military held an election that excluded Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD, securing a victory for its proxy party, the USDP. Most international observers dismissed this election as illegitimate. However, Aung San Suu Kyi was released in late 2010, became an MP within 18 months, and her party won the first free election since 1960 in 2015, making her the de facto leader. The NLD secured over 80 percent of parliamentary seats in the 2020 elections, while the USDP secured only 5 percent.

The 2021 coup, initiated by Armed Forces Commander Min Aung Hlaing on February 1, 2021 (the scheduled inauguration day for Aung San Suu Kyi's new government), followed concerns within the military about potential constitutional changes that could diminish their privileged position and impacted Min Aung Hlaing's aspirations for the presidency. The current situation differs from 2010, with no apparent reformers within the military ranks and widespread armed resistance against the junta.