Abductions in Papiri Village
Parents of over 300 students abducted from St Mary's Catholic School in Papiri village, Niger state, on November 21 have expressed reluctance to engage with authorities or journalists due to concerns over potential reprisals from the kidnappers. One parent, identified as Aliyu, reported fears of retaliation, stating that kidnappers might target individuals who speak publicly about them. His son is among the abducted students, some as young as five years old. Approximately 250 students are reported missing, a figure disputed by state officials. Aliyu expressed concern, noting past instances where captives in forest hideouts died due to illness or unpaid ransoms, and called for assistance.
Criminal gangs, locally termed "bandits," engage in kidnapping for ransom, a practice that has contributed to a recent wave of mass abductions in north and central Nigeria. Aliyu described his village as remote and close to bandit hideouts, stating the danger of directly confronting them.
Broader Context of Abductions and Security Responses
A few days prior to the Papiri incident, 25 girls were abducted from a school in Maga, Kebbi state, located 200km further north. One student escaped before security forces rescued the remaining girls from what authorities described as a "farm settlement." Bandit groups operate from cattle camps located in forested areas and are primarily composed of ethnic Fulani individuals, who are traditionally nomadic herders.
Details regarding ransom payment for the Maga girls have not been released. Ransom payment is illegal in Nigeria; however, non-payment has led to the deaths of hostages in previous incidents. Relatives often resort to crowdfunding, and in some mass school abductions, authorities have been suspected of negotiating releases.
No group has claimed responsibility for these two recent school kidnappings. The government informed the BBC that it attributes responsibility to jihadists, rather than bandits. Yusuf, a legal guardian to some Maga girls (identity protected), expressed the belief that these kidnappings require community informants, asserting that such actions necessitate local assistance and knowledge of the terrain.
Community-Led Peace Initiatives
Some communities, facing sustained bandit activity over the past decade and perceiving insufficient support from security forces, have initiated alternative approaches. David Nwaugwe, a security analyst for SBM Intelligence, stated that communities in the north-west affected by mass kidnappings have established "peace deals" with bandits, sometimes involving access to mineral mines. North-western states possess untapped mineral deposits, including gold, which presents an economic interest for bandit groups. Nwaugwe noted that these deals have shown effectiveness in certain areas, observing a decline in attack rates.
Katsina state, located in Nigeria's far north, has experienced persistent insecurity, including banditry and mass kidnappings. Over the past year, conditions have reportedly begun to change, partially attributed to peace deals negotiated between bandit and community leaders. Representatives from both sides have convened to negotiate terms and conditions, leading to agreements. Bandit leaders have participated in negotiations, though their armed presence at these talks has drawn criticism.
Jibia implemented a peace negotiation process, reaching an agreement in March. Ibrahim Sabiu, a community leader and lawyer representing Jibia, stated that over a decade of insecurity had rendered life unsustainable. Sabiu reported in September that homes and livelihoods were destroyed, schools and hospitals closed, and hundreds were killed or kidnapped for ransom. Key stipulations of the peace deal included the reopening of schools, a guarantee against community attacks, and a prohibition on bandits entering the community armed. Bandits in Jibia requested access to clean drinking water, safe passage for their cattle to grazing pastures, and permission for their women to engage in local market activities. The release of kidnapped individuals was a priority for both parties. The number of releases in Jibia is unconfirmed, but 37 villagers were freed in Kurfi, Katsina state, by late September, one month after an agreement.
Sabiu stated that the community accepted the peace offer due to the perceived lack of an end to the violence, adding that security agencies, despite involvement, had not resolved the crisis. Audu Abdullahi Ofisa, a bandit leader involved in the Jibia talks, supported the peace initiative. Banditry has traditionally been financially rewarding through ransom collection; however, in Kurfi, bandit leaders initiated peace talks. Their nomadic lifestyle complicates access to clean drinking water and food markets, contributing to increased living costs. Nasiru Bosho, a bandit leader in the Kurfi negotiations, stated a desire to end violence, noting that parties had previously coexisted and agreed to cease harassment and kidnapping. An additional perspective suggests that communities have been depleted of resources and can no longer generate ransom payments.
Shifting Dynamics and Future Prospects
While peace agreements in northern areas like Kurfi and Jibia have resulted in localized security improvements, analysts indicate that insecurity may have been displaced. Nwaugwe stated that southern regions are more economically prosperous, suggesting that groups moving south may find more targets, with parents in those areas potentially more capable of raising ransom funds. Many rural communities in the north-west have been vacated, with residents who possess resources relocating to urban centers.
A connection between recent attacks and former US President Donald Trump's past statements regarding military intervention in Nigeria has been questioned. Trump had criticized the Nigerian government concerning the protection of Christians from Islamist insurgent attacks. A jihadist insurgency began in Nigeria's north-east in 2009, with the 2014 abduction of over 200 girls by Boko Haram militants from Chibok being a significant mass abduction event.
The government and security analysts have emphasized that both Muslim and Christian populations have been targets in mass kidnappings. The BBC was informed that the schoolgirls recently abducted from Maga were Muslim. Christian Ani, from the Institute for Security Studies, described Nigeria's security situation as complicated, noting difficulty in distinguishing between violent extremist groups and bandits due to their operational overlap and fluid nature. Ani expressed skepticism regarding a direct link between Trump's comments and a resurgence in high-profile mass kidnappings of schoolchildren, suggesting that while ideological motives might exist, profit is a stronger motivator. Nwaugwe concurred, stating that a causal link between Trump's comments and the recent increase in attacks cannot be established. He posited that groups are currently targeting schools as accessible sources of ransom, advising against premature broader conclusions.
Nwaugwe proposed a two-pronged approach to halt the violence, involving armed confrontation combined with amnesty negotiations. He described this as a "stick and carrot" method, suggesting the application of military force alongside efforts to encourage surrender, stating that military power alone would be insufficient without complementary measures. For parents in Papiri, the concept of peaceful coexistence with these groups remains distant as they await their children's return.