Queensland's housing market, particularly in Brisbane and regional areas, recorded significant price and rent increases through 2026 and into early 2027. Brisbane's median home value surpassed $1 million, while regional areas also experienced notable growth. The rental market tightened, with vacancy rates approaching record lows in some segments.
In response to housing supply challenges, the Queensland government launched a Land Activation Program to release state-owned land for private housing development. This initiative has prompted varied responses from stakeholders regarding its potential impact on affordability and the absence of social housing mandates.
Housing Market Trends
Property data indicates increasing housing market expenses across Queensland in 2026, contrasting with a moderation in price growth in Sydney and Melbourne, which experienced a 0.1 percent decline in December 2026.
Brisbane Market Overview
- Price Growth: Brisbane's property values increased by 1.6 percent in December 2026, equating to an average increase of approximately $16,000 per property across houses and units. Annually, Brisbane's growth rate reached 14.5 percent, representing an approximate increase of $131,000 over the year.
- Median Values: The median home value in Brisbane was reported at $1,036,323 in December 2026 and $1,054,555 in January 2027.
- Affordability: Brisbane has transitioned to being considered among less affordable markets.
- Unit Sector: The unit sector is experiencing growth, attributed to increased buyer interest in lower-priced apartments, investment in south-east Queensland, an ongoing undersupply of housing, and limited new construction.
- Growth Areas: Within Greater Brisbane, the ten highest increases (ranging from 16.1 percent to 19.5 percent) were recorded in areas including Springwood-Kingston, Sunnybank, Nathan, Rocklea-Acacia Ridge, Forest Lake-Oxley, Inner Ipswich, Chermside, Capalaba, Mt Gravatt, and Strathpine.
Regional Queensland Growth
- Regional areas west of the state capital exhibited notable growth.
- Homes in the Granite Belt reached an average value of $592,873, marking a 20.4 percent increase over 12 months.
- Toowoomba, the Granite Belt, and the eastern Darling Downs region observed housing value increases between 18 and 20 percent over the same period.
- Other regions with strong growth include Charters Towers (up 16 percent), areas south of Cairns, Central Highlands (including Emerald), and Maryborough.
- These regional increases are linked to factors such as affordability, economic diversity, and access to local amenities.
Rental Market Overview
Brisbane recorded substantial rent increases in late 2026, leading to one of the tightest rental markets among Australian capital cities.
Rent Increases
- Quarterly Growth: In the December 2026 quarter, Brisbane experienced the highest quarterly rent increase among Australian capital cities, with a 3.1 percent rise. Median house rents reached $670 per week, and unit rents rose to $650 per week.
- Comparison: This increase surpassed those in Hobart (1.7 percent), Sydney (1.3 percent), and Canberra (1.4 percent). Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin experienced no change.
- Annual Growth: Brisbane experienced a 6.2 percent increase in rents over the past 12 months, exceeding the national average of 5.2 percent.
- Rent Levels: Despite recent growth, Brisbane's median asking price for rental houses remains below Sydney ($800 per week), Perth, Canberra, and Darwin (all $700 per week).
Vacancy Rates
- Reports indicate Brisbane's overall rental vacancy rate reached 0.9 percent in December 2026, while another source reported an overall rate of 2.1 percent, with the apartment market at 1.4 percent and houses at 2.4 percent.
- A healthy vacancy rate is generally considered to be between 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent.
Tenant Challenges and Market Factors
Tenants Queensland CEO Penny Carr noted that rent increases are a frequent issue, with consecutive increases observed for both new and existing tenancies, often exceeding the Consumer Price Index. The tight rental market may influence renters to forgo reporting necessary repairs or to accept rent payment platforms with associated fees. Renters are also frequently offered new lease agreements with higher increases before current leases expire.
Contributing Factors:
- Population Growth: Brisbane is identified as one of Australia's fastest-growing regions, experiencing substantial interstate migration, particularly from Sydney and Melbourne, driven by lifestyle and job opportunities, alongside an increase in international arrivals. This population growth is exacerbating existing supply constraints.
- Housing Supply: Housing supply in Queensland has not kept pace with its growing population, leading to increased demand and ongoing undersupply.
Government Land Activation Program
The Queensland government launched a new Land Activation Program (LAP) to address housing supply challenges by releasing underutilised state-owned land for private housing development.
Program Details
- Objective: The LAP is part of the Crisafulli government’s strategy to deliver one million new homes by 2044, including 53,000 social and affordable homes.
- Implementation: The program allows private developers to identify suitable government land and collaborate with the state for housing projects. Economic Development Queensland (EDQ) leads the program, leveraging the Economic Development Act 2012 to fast-track home delivery.
- Flexibility: The program is exempt from the Queensland Government Land Transaction Policy, permitting land transfers at residual value. Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie stated the focus is on accelerating supply, removing barriers, cutting red tape, and expediting approvals.
- "Use It or House It" Policy: This policy mandates that surplus state-owned land no longer required for government use be released and developed for housing, with conditions imposed on developers to ensure timely delivery.
First Site Release – Banyo
- The first site released under the LAP is a six-hectare former Energex site in Banyo, northern Brisbane.
- The site, located 13km from Brisbane’s CBD and accessible to public amenities, has the potential to deliver up to 400 new homes.
- The land transfer from Energy Queensland to EDQ at residual value has been completed.
- Concerns about historical contamination (PFAS chemicals, asbestos) at the Banyo site were raised by Deputy Opposition Leader Cameron Dick. Mr. Bleijie stated that all necessary environmental assessments had been completed and the land is safe for development.
Affordable Housing Mandates
- The program does not include a mandate for developments to incorporate social and affordable homes.
- Mr. Bleijie stated that mandates have historically led to fewer homes being built and that partnering with the market is essential for supply, asserting that "availability equals affordability."
Stakeholder Responses
The Land Activation Program has elicited varied reactions from community groups, political figures, and industry bodies.
Support for the Program
- Jess Caire, Queensland director for the Property Council of Australia, supported the initiative as a common-sense measure critical for addressing the current supply crisis. She noted that the private sector delivers 96 percent of homes in Queensland and that government-industry collaboration can accelerate delivery.
Concerns and Criticisms
- Affordability: Shadow housing minister Meaghan Scanlon asserted that the plan prioritizes developers over Queensland residents' housing needs and questioned the absence of public good outcomes without social and affordable housing conditions.
Aimee McVeigh, CEO of the Queensland Council of Social Services (QCOSS), described the lack of social housing mandates as "extremely distressing" given the record-high social housing register. She expressed skepticism regarding affordability without direct government investment in social and affordable housing.
Deputy Opposition Leader Cameron Dick argued that without specific targets for affordable homes, Queenslanders would continue to face an affordability crisis. - Community Impact: Local resident Keith Bitossi expressed opposition to the Banyo development, citing concerns about increased traffic, impact on local infrastructure, and the proposed medium-density units not aligning with the area's predominantly low-density character. Mr. Bleijie stated community consultation would be integrated into EDQ's development approval processes.
- Corruption Risks: Proposed electoral law changes by the LNP, which would permit property developers to make state-level donations, drew warnings from Queensland's corruption watchdog regarding increased corruption risks, particularly leading up to the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Market Outlook and Future Considerations
Forecasts suggest the property market may not maintain the same level of price growth into 2027, with potential interest rate adjustments cited as a moderating factor.
Price Projections
- KPMG forecasts Brisbane house prices to rise by 10.9 percent in 2027 and 8.9 percent in 2028.
- Unit prices are expected to increase by 7.8 percent in 2027 and 4.9 percent in 2028.
- This positions Brisbane as the second-highest performing city for property price growth nationally, following Perth. Nationally, KPMG forecasts house values to increase by 7.7 percent.
General Market Outlook
A significant decline in values is not anticipated due to low market supply and continued population growth, particularly interstate migration. Dr. Brendan Rynne, KPMG's chief economist, noted that while growth was expected to moderate due to affordability constraints, the latter half of the previous year saw accelerated growth in strong markets like Perth and Brisbane, supported by the expanded 5 percent deposit scheme. Buyers are reported to be prepared to pay more despite a housing supply shortage, intensifying competition. The primary downside risk to the national outlook is increasing affordability constraints for first-home buyers.
Rental Market Outlook
The rental market is projected to remain tight over the next 12 months, with rents expected to continue rising.
Impact of 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games
The 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games are anticipated to further influence Brisbane's housing situation:
- Significant government investment in South-East Queensland is expected to generate jobs, potentially attracting more residents and increasing housing demand.
- Major infrastructure projects could divert construction workers from residential building, potentially affecting housing supply and escalating costs.
Government Initiatives
- The federal government's 5 percent deposit scheme allows first-time buyers to purchase property with a reduced deposit without Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated this initiative aims to ease market entry for first-time buyers and complements broader efforts to increase housing supply.
- The Commonwealth's National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million new well-located homes by mid-2029.