A special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District has garnered significant attention from both the Democratic and Republican parties, who are observing the race for strategic insights ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
District Profile and Electoral Trends
The 7th Congressional District in Tennessee is historically conservative. Former President Donald Trump received approximately 60% of the vote in 2024, and former Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July, won by a similar margin. However, Democratic candidates have, on average, exceeded their 2024 performance in special elections this year by 13%, following a period of recent electoral successes for the party.
The current race involves Republican Matt Van Epps, a former state Department of General Services Commissioner, and Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn.
Financial Investment and Polling Data
The election has attracted substantial external financial contributions, totaling over $6.5 million from outside groups, according to Federal Election Commission data. This includes more than $1.6 million from MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC. Two-thirds of the total super PAC expenditures occurred in the final two weeks of the campaign, coinciding with an increase in early voting.
Public polling for the special election, which typically experiences lower voter turnout, has been limited. An Emerson College poll released last week indicated a slight lead for Van Epps over Behn, within the margin of error. Surveys conducted in October by Democratic-aligned firms showed Van Epps with an 8-point advantage, aligning with the average Democratic overperformance in special elections this year. The presence of less reliable information on voter demographics has intensified efforts by both parties to maximize voter participation.
Campaign Focus and Endorsements
Both campaigns have made the cost of living and affordability central to their platforms.
- Matt Van Epps, endorsed by former President Trump, has focused his closing message on economic issues. He stated in an advertisement his intention to "bring down prices, create good paying jobs, and lower health care costs for working families" and criticized "career politicians."
- Aftyn Behn's closing advertisement articulated her goal to "shake up Washington" by "making health care more affordable, bringing down the cost of living, and protect workers and small businesses from job-killing tariffs."
The campaign has featured appearances by several high-profile political figures. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin participated in canvassing events for Behn. Former Vice President Al Gore and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez headlined a virtual rally. For Van Epps, House Speaker Mike Johnson held a get-out-the-vote rally, during which former President Trump delivered a phone message stating that "the whole world is watching Tennessee right now." In a telephone rally for Van Epps, Trump characterized discussions of affordability by Democrats as a "con job" or "just a word."