The United States has increased its pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The Trump administration has doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro's capture, and US warships are operating in the vicinity of Venezuela. Reported attacks on boats alleged to be transporting drugs from Venezuela have resulted in dozens of fatalities. President Trump reportedly delivered an ultimatum to Maduro to leave Venezuela during a phone conversation on November 21.
Nicolás Maduro's Political Ascent
Nicolás Maduro rose to prominence under President Hugo Chávez and Venezuela's United Socialist Party (PSUV). A former bus driver and union leader, Maduro succeeded Chávez, becoming president in 2013. During the combined 26 years of Chávez and Maduro's presidencies, the PSUV gained control of key national institutions, including the National Assembly, significant parts of the judiciary, and the electoral council.
In 2024, the electoral council declared Maduro the winner of the presidential election. However, opposition tallies indicated that their candidate, Edmundo González, had won by a substantial margin. The US, alongside several other nations, did not recognize the election results and acknowledged González as the 'president-elect.' Despite this, Maduro has maintained power, retaining control of the military, police, and legislature. González subsequently sought exile due to concerns about potential arrest.
US Motivations for Focusing on Venezuela
During his second term, President Trump has prioritized immigration control, attributing the arrival of a significant number of Venezuelan migrants in the US to Maduro's policies. Since 2013, an estimated eight million Venezuelans have reportedly left the country due to economic crisis and political repression, which have intensified under Maduro's presidency. While most have relocated to other Latin American countries, hundreds of thousands have migrated to the US.
President Trump has also stated that Maduro is 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums' and 'forcing' inmates to migrate to the US, though no evidence was provided for these specific claims. Additionally, Trump has focused on combating the influx of drugs, including fentanyl and cocaine, into the US. In line with this objective, two Venezuelan groups, Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles, have been designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The US has alleged that Maduro leads the Cartel de los Soles. Maduro has denied leadership of any cartel and has accused the US of using the 'war on drugs' as a pretext to depose him and gain access to Venezuela's oil reserves. Analysts suggest that 'Cartel de los Soles' serves as an umbrella term for corrupt Venezuelan officials facilitating cocaine transit, rather than a hierarchical organization.
US Military Deployment in the Caribbean
The US has deployed approximately 15,000 troops, along with aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and amphibious assault ships, to the Caribbean. This deployment, described as the largest since the 1989 US invasion of Panama, is stated to be aimed at disrupting the flow of fentanyl and cocaine into the US. Since early September, US forces have reportedly conducted over 20 strikes in international waters targeting boats alleged to be carrying drugs, resulting in more than 80 fatalities.
The Trump administration characterizes its actions as involvement in a non-international armed conflict against alleged drug traffickers, accusing them of engaging in irregular warfare against the US. The US has also referred to individuals on board the targeted vessels as 'narco terrorists.' However, legal experts have stated that such a designation 'did not transform them into lawful military targets,' suggesting the strikes may be unlawful. A former chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court reportedly described the US military campaign as a planned, systematic attack against civilians during peacetime. The White House has maintained that President Trump's actions comply with the laws of armed conflict, aimed at protecting the US from cartels involved in drug trafficking.
Venezuela's Role in Global Drug Trafficking
Counternarcotic experts indicate that Venezuela is a relatively minor participant in global drug trafficking, primarily serving as a transit country for drugs produced elsewhere. Colombia, a neighboring nation, is identified as the world's largest producer of cocaine. However, most cocaine trafficked to the US reportedly uses routes other than Venezuela. A 2020 US Drug Enforcement report estimated that nearly three-quarters of cocaine reaching the US is trafficked via the Pacific, with a small percentage transported by fast boats in the Caribbean.
President Trump stated in September to US military leaders that targeted boats were 'stacked up with bags of white powder that's mostly fentanyl and other drugs.' However, fentanyl is primarily produced in Mexico and is reported to reach the US almost exclusively via land routes across its southern border.