Crisis in the Middle East: The US-Israeli-Iran War of 2026

A conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began on February 28, 2026, with a joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran. The ensuing six weeks have been marked by a cycle of airstrikes, retaliatory drone and missile attacks, and diplomatic efforts to halt the fighting.

The war has caused thousands of casualties, disrupted global energy markets, and severely affected shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Conflict Initiation and Initial Strikes

Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran. The operation, named "Epic Fury" by the US and "Roaring Lion" by Israel, involved extensive airstrikes on over 500 military targets in its initial phase. US President Donald Trump confirmed the commencement of "major combat operations," stating the goal was to eliminate "imminent threats" posed by the Iranian regime.

Leadership Casualties

A key objective of the initial strikes was the elimination of Iran's top leadership. The attacks resulted in the deaths of:

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
• The Minister of Defense
• The head of the Armed Forces
• The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

Iran's state media confirmed Khamenei's death. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was subsequently appointed as the new Supreme Leader. Reports later confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was also injured in the attack that killed his father.

Immediate Iranian Retaliation

Hours after the initial strikes, Iran launched a wave of retaliatory missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US military bases, and infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Iran also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, to most commercial shipping. The Lebanon-based militia Hezbollah, an Iranian ally, entered the conflict on March 2 by firing rockets into northern Israel, prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes on Lebanese territory.

Military Campaign and Regional Escalation

US and Israeli Air Campaign

Throughout the conflict, the US and Israeli militaries conducted sustained airstrikes across Iran, targeting what they described as military infrastructure. Targets included IRGC command centers, ballistic missile sites and launchers, air defense systems, naval vessels, drone facilities, and defense industrial bases. By week five, US Central Command reported striking over 12,300 targets.

The campaign evolved to include targeting Iranian internal security forces, such as the Basij and Law Enforcement Command (LEC), aiming to degrade the regime's ability to suppress dissent. US intelligence assessments indicated that despite the extensive campaign, approximately half of Iran's missile launchers and a significant portion of its drone arsenal remained operational, with Iran using underground tunnels and mobile platforms to conceal its assets.

Iranian Retaliatory Strategy

Iran's response focused on striking targets across the region to inflict economic and military costs. Attacks targeted energy infrastructure in Gulf states, including oil refineries, gas processing plants, and water desalination facilities. Key incidents included strikes on:

• Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility
• Saudi Arabia's Aramco refinery in Yanbu
• Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery
• The UAE's Habshan gas facility

Iran also launched daily missile barrages at Israel, with its military claiming the use of ballistic missiles, including those equipped with cluster munitions. While many projectiles were intercepted, some caused civilian casualties and damage in Israeli towns, including Ramat Gan and Beit Shemesh. The IRGC Navy also targeted commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, effectively blockading the waterway.

Major Incidents and Casualties

Military and Civilian Casualties

The conflict resulted in significant casualties across the region:

U.S. Service Member Fatalities

• Six U.S. service members were killed in an Iranian drone strike on a tactical operations center at the Port of Shuaiba, Kuwait, on March 1. Survivors disputed the Pentagon's account, stating their position was not a fortified unit and lacked adequate defenses against aerial threats.
• Six U.S. airmen were killed when a KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq on March 12. The U.S. military stated the crash was not due to hostile or friendly fire.
• An Army Sgt. died from wounds received in an earlier attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

Houthi Involvement

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen entered the conflict in late March, launching ballistic missiles and drones towards Israel. The Houthi involvement raised concerns about a potential expansion of the war and threats to Red Sea shipping lanes, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Diplomatic Efforts and Ceasefire

Mediation and Peace Talks

Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey acted as mediators, attempting to broker a ceasefire and facilitate negotiations. Pakistan hosted indirect talks between US and Iranian officials. US Vice President JD Vance met with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in Islamabad for face-to-face negotiations.

The Ceasefire

A two-week ceasefire was agreed upon in early April. Key terms included:

• A suspension of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran
• In return, a commitment from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

The implementation of the ceasefire was immediately challenged by competing interpretations. Disagreements centered on whether the truce covered Israel's military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the precise conditions for reopening the strait, which had been a central point of contention throughout the war.

Post-Ceasefire Tensions

Following the ceasefire announcement, the US maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports, demanding the reopening of the strait. Iran, in turn, accused the US of violating the truce and threatened to target regional energy infrastructure.

Subsequent rounds of talks in Islamabad failed to produce a permanent agreement. The US presented a 15-point plan, while Iran offered a 10-point counter-proposal. A key sticking point was Iran's nuclear program and the fate of its enriched uranium stockpile. The conflict has resulted in a strategic impasse, with each side perceiving itself as having gained advantages.

Impact on the Strait of Hormuz and Global Economy

Disruption to Global Trade

Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and a significant portion of LNG transits, caused the most severe supply disruption in decades.

The blockage led to a 94% drop in traffic compared to the previous year. This sent global oil prices soaring, with Brent crude rising over 50% from about $70 per barrel before the conflict to over $100.

International Response

The disruption prompted a multi-national effort to find alternative routes and secure the waterway. Britain, France, and other nations led diplomatic initiatives to form a coalition to guarantee freedom of navigation after the conflict. These efforts largely excluded the US, which was viewed as having initiated the war.

The UK hosted a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to discuss reopening the strait, focusing on post-conflict measures like mine-clearing. Iran proposed a joint protocol with Oman to manage traffic and charge fees for passage, a plan rejected by Western powers and many Gulf states as an illegal "pay-to-pass" scheme.