A Global Crisis: The Six-Week War and Its Aftermath

A six-week military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has caused extensive disruption to global aviation, triggered a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, and led to widespread flight cancellations and travel disruptions.

The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, has also resulted in significant military engagements in Lebanon and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for global oil and fuel supplies.

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was announced on May 1 and took effect in the early hours of May 2. Negotiations for a broader ceasefire between the US and Iran continue.

Conflict Overview and Ceasefire Developments

The conflict originated with US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Iran subsequently launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel and several Gulf states hosting US military installations, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait.

US-Iran Ceasefire

A 14-day ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran was agreed upon in mid-April, with negotiations ongoing. As of May 1, the ceasefire was in its 19th day. US President Donald Trump has stated the deal is "largely negotiated" but also indicated he will not be rushed.

The potential deal is reported to include a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire, during which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program would be deferred.

Lebanon Ceasefire

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was announced by US President Donald Trump and took effect on May 2. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Israeli forces would remain within 10 kilometers of the Lebanese border. Hezbollah said it would adhere to the deal if Israel stops all attacks. The Lebanese government welcomed the truce.

• Background: The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continued despite the broader US-Israel-Iran truce. Israeli military operations over six weeks resulted in approximately 2,200 deaths and over one million displaced people in Lebanon.
• Previous Ceasefire History: A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in late 2024 did not end hostilities, with accusations of breaches on both sides.
• Situation Prior to Ceasefire: Israel destroyed the last bridge connecting southern Lebanon before the ceasefire. The international community, including France and the UK, urged restraint.

Australia's Position

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated that the ceasefire should extend to include Lebanon. She described the ceasefire as "fragile" and emphasized the global economic impact of the conflict.

Post-Ceasefire Violence

On April 30, Iran carried out missile and drone strikes on Israel after Israeli strikes on Beirut in response to continued rocket fire from Hezbollah. The strikes occurred as a US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon showed signs of collapse.

Global Aviation Disruptions

The conflict caused the closure of airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, and several Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. This resulted in the indefinite suspension of flights at Dubai International Airport and other major hubs.

Over 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East were canceled in the immediate aftermath.

• Flight Cancellations: Major airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, and dozens of international carriers suspended or significantly reduced services.
• Passenger Strandings: Hundreds of thousands of travelers were stranded globally. Governments, including Australia, organized repatriation flights for stranded citizens. Australia reported over 10,000 citizens returned home via government-facilitated flights.
• Rerouting: Airlines were forced to use alternative, longer flight paths via the Caucasus corridor (Azerbaijan, Georgia) or a southern route through Saudi Arabia and Egypt, increasing travel times and fuel consumption.
• Recovery and Future Outlook: While some flights resumed on a limited basis using emergency air corridors, full recovery of normal flight schedules is expected to take months. The crisis has altered travel patterns, with demand shifting to routes via Asia and away from Middle East hubs.

Fuel Crisis and Financial Impact on Airlines

The conflict's impact on the Strait of Hormuz is the central driver of a severe aviation fuel crisis.

• Jet Fuel Prices: Jet fuel prices more than doubled since the start of the conflict. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, choked supply.
• Potential Shortages: The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel supplies remaining. Some European countries have less than 20 days of inventory. The IEA described this as the global economy's "largest energy crisis."

Airline Financials

• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects an additional $100 billion in fuel costs for 2026, halving global airline profits to $23 billion.
• Qantas estimated its fuel bill for the second half of the financial year would rise by up to $800 million to between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion. The airline reduced domestic capacity by 5%, increased fares, and redeployed aircraft from US routes to meet demand for European travel. It cut domestic flights, suspended a share buyback, and canceled its Busselton-Sydney service.
• Virgin Australia reduced domestic capacity by 1% and expects $30-40 million in higher fuel costs.
• Jetstar, a Qantas subsidiary, suspended its Busselton-Sydney service and cut 12% of flights on some New Zealand routes.
• Air New Zealand reported reduced profits and reduced its flight schedule.

Airline Responses

Airlines globally responded by increasing fares, fuel surcharges, and checked baggage fees. Many reduced flight capacity. Lufthansa cut 20,000 flights through the fall, KLM cut 160 flights, and Air Canada suspended its New York service. Spirit Airlines permanently ceased operations, citing soaring fuel costs as a factor.

Impact on Australia

Key Dates

Defense and Security

• Australia deployed a Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) E-7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft to the UAE, along with 85 personnel, to assist in regional defense against Iranian missile threats.
• The deployment was framed as a defensive measure. Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed that intelligence gathered by the Australian aircraft could be accessed by the US, which could be used for their operations.
• An Iranian projectile struck near the Al Minhad Air Base, where Australian forces are stationed, causing minor damage to facilities. No Australian personnel were injured.

Government Response and Travel Advisories

• The Australian government issued a "Do Not Travel" warning for multiple Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE, Qatar, Israel, Iran, and Lebanon. The advisory extended to transit and layovers.
• The government activated its 24/7 Crisis Centre. Foreign Minister Penny Wong engaged with regional counterparts. Australia facilitated repatriation for its citizens, with over 10,000 returning home.
• The government considered requests for military aid from Gulf states. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a three-month halving of the fuel excise to reduce prices by approximately 26 cents per litre.
• Foreign Minister Wong criticized President Trump's threats of destruction against Iran, stating that leaders should not threaten the destruction of a civilization.
• Australia called for a comprehensive ceasefire that includes Lebanon.

Strait of Hormuz and Energy Market Impact

The conflict severely impacted global energy markets.

• Closure and Blockade: Iran initially closed the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy subsequently implemented a blockade of the strait. President Trump issued an ultimatum for Iran to reopen the waterway.
• Reopening: The Strait of Hormuz reopened to commercial shipping on May 2, with Iranian authorities making the announcement. Iran also seized two ships the same day.
• Diplomatic Efforts: Dozens of countries, excluding the US, held a virtual meeting to discuss options for securing the Strait. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey have been involved in mediation efforts.
• Impact in Australia: High fuel prices in Australia were projected to reduce road traffic during the Easter long weekend. The Australian government confirmed hundreds of service stations experienced fuel shortages. The government and Qantas were in talks with China to resume jet fuel exports.

Key Casualties and Humanitarian Impact

• Israel: At least 23 fatalities reported from Iranian missile strikes. Nearly 2,000 injuries reported by health authorities.
• Lebanon: At least 2,200 fatalities reported, including civilians, women, and children. Over 4,400 injuries reported by authorities. Over 1 million people displaced.
• Iran: Over 1,000 civilian deaths estimated by a US-based human rights agency. Over 2,000 deaths reported by health authorities, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other military officials from US and Israeli strikes.
• UAE: At least 3 foreign workers died in strikes. Four injuries at Dubai International Airport.
• Bahrain: At least 1 death (an Asian worker) and two injuries.
• Kuwait: At least 7 deaths and 32 injuries, including six US soldiers killed in a drone strike.
• US: Seven US service members reported killed in action. Two US pilots recovered after being shot down over Iran.
• Other: Casualties and injuries also reported in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, and Syria.

Military Actions and Targets

Iran

• Targeted US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
• Launched extensive missile and drone barrages at Israel.
• Struck Dubai International Airport and the Burj Al Arab hotel in the UAE.
• Targeted Kuwait International Airport and other Gulf airports.
• Carried out strikes against neighboring Gulf states.
• Targeted civilian infrastructure including airports and energy facilities.
• Conducted a drone strike on Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE.
• Reported targeting an Amazon cloud facility in Bahrain.

Israel

• Conducted air strikes on southern Beirut, targeting claimed Hezbollah command centers.
• Expanded military operations in southern Lebanon, stating an intention to occupy territory to the Litani River.
• Targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure, missile launchers, and leadership compounds.
• Struck steel manufacturing facilities in Iran.
• Carried out operations in Gaza, including a strike that killed the head of Hamas's armed wing in Gaza City.

US

• Launched strikes on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub.
• Struck Iranian Navy ships, including an incident off the Sri Lankan coast.
• Targeted power plants, bridges, and railways across Iran, as part of threats to "obliterate" Iranian infrastructure.
• Deployed thousands of additional troops to the region, including Marines.

UAE

• Reportedly conducted military strikes on Iranian targets.
• Intercepted over 1,000 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones launched from Iran.

Hezbollah

• Fired rockets and drones at northern Israel.
• Reported firing its largest barrage of missiles at Israel (200 in one instance).

Other Militias

• Iran-linked Iraqi militias claimed responsibility for attacks on US bases in the Kurdish region of Iraq and the US consulate in Erbil.

Military Assets Deployed

Military Bases Affected

• Al Minhad Air Base (UAE): Struck by an Iranian drone. Houses Australian Defence Force personnel.
• Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE): Struck by air strikes, affecting RAAF operations.
• Al-Udeid Base (Qatar): Reported hit by an Iranian missile without casualties.
• RAF Akrotiri (Cyprus): Experienced a drone incident.
• Other: Iran established a secret forward base in western Iraq. US bases in Kurdish region of Iraq targeted by Iran-linked militias. Qamishli International Airport (Syria) experienced a nearby missile impact. Salalah and Duqm ports (Oman) targeted by multiple drone attacks.

Political Developments

Iran

• Mojtaba Khamenei appointed as new Supreme Leader. He is reported wounded but alive.
• The speaker of the Iranian parliament claimed 7 million Iranians volunteered for military service.
• Iran rejected a US-drafted peace proposal, calling it "unrealistic, illogical and excessive."

Israel

• The Knesset approved new legislation establishing death by hanging as the default sentence for Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu stated the ceasefire with Iran "does not include Lebanon."

Other

• The UAE announced it will leave OPEC.
• China labeled the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as "dangerous and irresponsible."
• Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution aimed at protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Pope Leo made remarks appearing to criticize the Trump administration's approach to war.

Diplomatic Developments

Ceasefire Talks

Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other nations have been involved in mediation efforts. Pakistan presented a US-drafted proposal to Iran, which Iran rejected. Iran submitted its own 14-point proposal, which the US also rejected.

US-Iran Negotiations

Indirect negotiations have been underway via Pakistan. President Trump has made positive remarks about a potential end to the war but has also issued threats and deadlines.

Israel-Lebanon Talks

The first direct talks in three decades between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors took place in Washington, D.C., chaired by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The talks focused on disarming Hezbollah. Hezbollah demanded the Lebanese government suspend the negotiations.

Lebanon Ceasefire

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was announced on May 1 and took effect on May 2.

International Summits

Australia participated in a summit on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The United Nations Security Council met to discuss the conflict. A virtual meeting involving dozens of countries, excluding the US, was held to discuss the Strait of Hormuz.

International Reactions

• United Nations: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned of a potential global food crisis due to fertilizer price surges. The UN humanitarian chief stated civilians are bearing the cost across the region.
• European Union: France and the UK are progressively becoming involved in the conflict. France deployed warships and proposed a defensive mission for the Strait of Hormuz.
• Other Nations: The Philippines upgraded travel advisories and enacted a deployment ban for new Filipino workers. Indonesia coordinated efforts for stranded citizens.

Australian Diplomatic Role

• Foreign Minister Penny Wong called for the ceasefire to extend to Lebanon.
• Australia joined a summit on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• The government engaged with the UAE and other regional partners.
• Australia secured agreements with China to resume critical jet fuel exports.
• The government considered requests for military assistance from Gulf states.

Analysis

• The conflict has fundamentally disrupted global aviation, causing unprecedented flight cancellations and rerouting.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in jet fuel prices represent the largest financial shock to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The humanitarian toll has been severe, with thousands of civilian casualties and millions displaced, primarily in Lebanon.
• The deployment of Australian forces to the Gulf represents a significant military commitment, with the role of the E-7A Wedgetail in intelligence sharing being a key point of debate.
• The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced on May 1, represents a potential de-escalation, though its durability remains uncertain given the history of previous breaches and continued hostilities.
• Political dynamics, particularly within Israel, Iran, and the US, remain volatile and will influence the trajectory of the conflict.

Key Context

• The conflict began with alleged US and Israeli actions against Iran, cited as preventing Iran from acquiring a deployable nuclear weapon.
• The Strait of Hormuz closure constitutes one of the largest disruptions to global oil supplies in history, with the IEA describing it as the "largest energy crisis" for the global economy.
• The war in Lebanon, involving Israel and Hezbollah, has been the source of a severe humanitarian crisis, with over one million people displaced.
• Iran's strategy has included targeting Gulf states to pressure the US and disrupt the global economy, including air travel and oil markets.
• Several international airlines sought and were granted emergency approval from the US Federal Aviation Administration to operate flights through Iranian airspace during the conflict.
• Passenger demand fell 0.6% internationally in March but rose over 2% overall due to strong domestic markets (IATA).

Additional Notes

• The Global Sumud Flotilla, with 52 boats including 11 Australians, departed from Turkey to break Israel's maritime blockade of Gaza.
• The Australian government granted asylum to five members of Iran's women's football team who were in Australia for the Asian Football Confederation Women's Asian Cup 2026.
• Iran has begun using exploding drone boats to target vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The conflict has affected water resources, with damage reported at desalination plants in the UAE and Kuwait, and Iran later striking a desalination plant in Bahrain.
• President Trump's fluctuating diplomatic approach includes both discussions of a peace deal and threats of significant military action if Iran does not comply.
• The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, though it may take until year-end for those barrels to reach markets.

Timeline of Key Events

• February 28: US and Israel launch attacks on Iran.
• March 1: Airspace closures across the Middle East; Dubai airport suspended operations.
• March 4: First Australian repatriation flight arrives from UAE.
• March 14: Iran rejects US peace proposal.
• March 31: Qantas announces up to $800 million in additional fuel costs.
• April 1: US President Trump issues deadline for Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz.
• April 8: Ceasefire between US-Israel-Iran announced.
• April 10: US begins blockade of Strait of Hormuz.
• April 14: Qantas reduces domestic capacity by 5%.
• April 15: Virgin Australia reduces domestic capacity by 1%.
• April 17: China agrees to resume jet fuel exports to Australia.
• April 22: IATA warns of $100 billion fuel cost hike.
• April 25: Iran issues 14-point peace proposal.
• April 27: Delta cuts snacks on short flights.
• April 29: Australia's Wedgetail provides intelligence to NATO.
• April 30: Iran fires missiles at Israel after Israeli strikes on Beirut.
• May 1: 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced.
• May 2: Ceasefire takes effect; Strait of Hormuz reopens; Iran seizes two ships.
• May 5: European airlines cut flights.
• May 7: UAE faces fresh missile strikes.
• May 9: US travelers shift to domestic destinations.
• May 10: 9.3 million seats cut globally.
• May 20: US airlines spent $6.5 billion on jet fuel in April.
• May 27: Australia deploys Wedgetail to secret Middle East base.
• May 28: Delta eliminates snacks; airlines raise baggage fees.