A series of military actions and retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, commencing on February 28, have resulted in unprecedented disruptions to global aviation, a significant surge in jet fuel prices, and the stranding of hundreds of thousands of travelers worldwide. The conflict, involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, has led to extensive airspace closures, damage to critical infrastructure including major airports in the Gulf region, and heightened security concerns. Governments and airlines have initiated repatriation efforts and made operational adjustments in response to the volatile situation.
Escalation of Middle East Conflict
Military actions involving the United States and Israel against Iran commenced on February 28. These operations reportedly targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure, missile launchers, government buildings, leadership compounds, and naval and air force capabilities, leading to the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other military officials.
In retaliation, Iran launched widespread missile and drone strikes against Israel and US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Iran also targeted civilian infrastructure and strategic sites across Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Oman. Specific targets included airports, oil refineries, data centers, and desalination plants. Bahrain International Airport and Kuwait International Airport reported material damage or strikes.
The conflict in Lebanon has intensified, with daily exchanges of fire between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. Israeli military actions in southern Lebanon have resulted in over 800 fatalities and more than 800,000 displaced persons.
Israel announced intentions to occupy southern Lebanon, specifically the area from its border to the Litani River, to protect northern Israel from Hezbollah rocket fire. Hezbollah's leadership affirmed its intention to continue combat operations against Israel.
Further military developments include a US submarine reportedly sinking an Iranian Navy ship off the Sri Lankan coast, resulting in over 80 fatalities, and a drone strike reported at an airport in Azerbaijan.
Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's new Supreme Leader, with the Assembly of Experts calling for allegiance. While Iran's president reportedly apologized to Gulf neighbors for some attacks, the Revolutionary Guard subsequently intensified strikes. Iran's actions were justified by the presence of US bases in Gulf states.
Regional Airspace and Airport Disruptions
The conflict led to extensive airspace closures across the Middle East. Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar was closed, with Jordan implementing partial closures. This created a restricted airspace area of 2.8 million square kilometers, funneling air traffic into narrower corridors.
Major aviation hubs experienced significant operational halts. Dubai International (DXB), Dubai World Central (DWC), Hamad International (Doha), and Zayed International (Abu Dhabi) airports suspended most operations.
Specific Airport Incidents
- Dubai International Airport reported four injuries, minor damage to a concourse, and explosions near a terminal, which Dubai authorities confirmed was quickly contained. Debris from an intercepted drone caused a minor fire at the Burj Al Arab hotel and a blaze at Jebel Ali port. Explosions were also reported on Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah, resulting in a fire and injuries.
- Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi reported one fatality and seven injuries following a drone strike.
- An Iranian projectile impacted a road adjacent to the Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE, causing a fire and minor damage to an accommodation block and a medical facility utilized by Australian forces. No Australian personnel were injured. This was the second time the base was targeted.
- Qamishli International Airport in Syria was impacted by a missile.
More than 46,000 flights globally were canceled from February 28 to March 11, with Cirium reporting over 11,000 cancellations in and out of the Middle East, affecting hundreds of thousands of travelers.
Major Gulf carriers like Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways, which typically process approximately 90,000 passengers daily through their hubs, experienced widespread disruptions.
Limited flights began to resume from the UAE on March 3, with Emirates, Etihad, and FlyDubai operating select services, prioritizing existing bookings and repatriation efforts. The UAE government established a "safe air corridor" supporting 48 flights per hour. Qatar announced a partial resumption of flights for passenger evacuations and air cargo operations on March 8. Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) at Sydney Airport indicated that disruptions could persist for six weeks after the conflict subsides to allow airlines to normalize operations.
Impact on Global Aviation
Airlines rerouted flights to avoid conflict zones, primarily utilizing northern corridors via the Caucasus region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or southern routes through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. These longer flight paths increased flight durations, fuel consumption, and operational costs.
Capacity reductions were implemented by several airlines. Jetstar cut over 10 percent of its scheduled flights between Australia and New Zealand and within New Zealand. United Airlines reduced its global capacity by 5 percent, targeting less profitable routes and suspending services to Tel Aviv and Dubai. Air New Zealand cut its flight schedule by 5 percent (approximately 1,100 services) through early May. Qantas, however, increased flights between Australia and Europe, reallocating Boeing 787 aircraft from US routes and deploying larger aircraft.
Airfares increased across the industry in response to higher fuel costs and capacity constraints. Qantas, Virgin Australia, Air New Zealand, Cathay Pacific, Scandinavian Airlines (SAS), Air India, Hong Kong Airlines, and Air France-KLM announced fare adjustments or new fuel surcharges. Industry estimates suggested a 15-20 percent increase in airfares. Airline share prices experienced declines due to the ongoing disruptions.
The widespread grounding of aircraft and displacement of crews further complicated the resumption of normal operations.
Fuel Market Volatility and Supply Concerns
The conflict caused significant volatility in crude oil and jet fuel prices. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated, reaching as high as $US120 per barrel before settling around $US90-100. Iran indicated that oil prices could reach $US200 per barrel.
Jet fuel prices saw substantial increases; the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index rose over 60 percent, from $2.11 per gallon to $3.99 per gallon. Singapore jet fuel prices more than doubled, from $US92 to $220 per barrel before stabilizing around $197.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point for approximately 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, became a focal point of concern. Iran threatened to close the strait and intensified strikes on ships in the vicinity, vowing to maintain an oil export blockade. The United States considered providing military escorts for commercial shipping. In response, Saudi Arabia rerouted oil exports through its 1,200 km East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, though this route involves navigating the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an area with its own security risks.
Regional oil and jet fuel supplies faced disruptions, with reductions in output from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, and some Gulf refineries ceasing operations. China, a major supplier of jet fuel, implemented export restrictions, impacting countries like Australia, which imports over 80 percent of its jet fuel. Australia currently holds over 800 million liters of jet fuel, exceeding its minimum stockholding obligation by 21 percent, representing 29 days' supply. Airlines reported having hedged a portion of their fuel costs, but unhedged refinery margins remained vulnerable to price fluctuations.
Government and International Responses
Governments worldwide issued updated travel advisories and initiated repatriation efforts:
- Australia: Smartraveller issued "Do Not Travel" warnings for Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Palestine, and Yemen, and advised reconsideration of travel to Jordan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. This warning was extended to transit and layovers in affected countries. Australia did not organize repatriation flights but facilitated limited commercial departures and organized bus transit services for Australians from Doha to Riyadh. Six crisis teams were deployed to the Middle East for consular support.
- United States: Advised citizens to leave over a dozen Middle Eastern countries, assisting with military and chartered flights. Approximately 27,000 Americans returned, with most arranging their own travel.
- United Kingdom: Deployed rapid response teams and urged citizens to register their presence.
- Germany, Czech Republic, Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea: Initiated or coordinated evacuation efforts for their citizens.
- UAE: Committed to covering food and accommodation costs for tens of thousands of stranded travelers.
Australia deployed a Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) E-7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft and 85 personnel to the UAE for an initial four-week defensive mission to intercept Iranian missile and drone attacks. Australia also supplied the UAE with AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles. Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed that intelligence gathered by the Wedgetail would be shared with the Combined Air Operations Centre (CAOC) in Qatar, a US-led joint military facility. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasized the deployment was defensive and not offensive action against Iran.
Diplomatic efforts included indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye, though a US-drafted proposal was rejected by Iran.
Backchannel diplomacy, facilitated by Oman and Qatar, led to a temporary three-way agreement between the UAE, Oman, and Iran, opening a specific flight corridor away from Iran and the northern Persian Gulf for limited commercial flights.
Humanitarian and Economic Consequences
The conflict exacerbated humanitarian crises in the region. In Lebanon, over 800,000 people were displaced, and more than 800 fatalities were reported from Israeli bombardments. Israel's closure of crossings into Gaza suspended humanitarian movements, exacerbating an already severe crisis. Iran reportedly experienced over 1,000 civilian deaths, including 165 in a girls' school airstrike.
Economically, the global tourism sector faces daily losses of at least $600 million in international visitor spending. Oxford Economics estimated a short conflict could reduce Middle East visitors by 11 percent this year, resulting in a $34 billion loss. Airline share prices declined globally. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatened food security in Gulf states, which import 90 percent of their food. Damage to desalination plants in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and an Iranian claim of damage to a plant on Qeshm Island, raised concerns about water resources.
Timeline of Key Events
- February 28: Military actions involving the US and Israel against Iran commence.
- March 1: Widespread Middle East airspace closures. Major airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha suspend operations. First reported missile/drone strikes on Gulf states. Al Minhad Air Base targeted.
- March 1-3: Most extensive airspace closures, thousands of travelers stranded. Initial repatriation efforts begin.
- March 2: Australia announces deployment of RAAF E-7A Wedgetail aircraft and 85 personnel to UAE.
- March 3: Limited flights resume from UAE (Dubai-Mumbai, FlyDubai-Warsaw). UAE announces 60 flights via emergency corridors.
- March 4: US State Department advises citizens to leave the Middle East. Dubai International Airport confirms an attack, reporting four injuries.
- March 5: Emirates extends flight cancellations until March 7.
- March 7: Emirates partially resumes significant flight operations.
- March 8: Qatar Airways resumes limited repatriation flights from Doha.
- Ongoing: Iranian projectile impacts Al Minhad Air Base, causing minor damage to Australian facilities. US submarine sinks Iranian ship off Sri Lanka. Mojtaba Khamenei is named Iran's new Supreme Leader.