Guinea-Bissau, a West African nation, has experienced multiple military takeovers since gaining independence in 1974.
On Wednesday, military officers announced they had seized control. This event included elements typical of a military takeover, such as gunfire near the presidential palace, the arrest of President Umaro Sissoco Embal贸, and an address by soldiers on state television.
Some political figures and analysts expressed skepticism regarding the circumstances. Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan are among those who questioned the nature of the takeover, suggesting it may have been orchestrated. The military stated to the BBC that it had taken control but refrained from using the term "coup." They claimed their actions were to prevent a plot by unnamed politicians, reportedly supported by an individual identified as a drug baron, to destabilize the country, known as a drug-trafficking hub.
Events Leading to the Takeover
Three days prior to the military's announcement, a presidential election was held. President Embal贸, 53, sought a second term. His main challenger was Fernando Dias da Costa.
Dias was supported by former Prime Minister Domingos Pereira, who had been disqualified from the election by authorities for allegedly filing his papers late. The election results were scheduled for release on Thursday, the day after the military intervention.
Events of the Takeover Day
Gunfire was reported in the capital, Bissau. President Embal贸 informed the French news site Jeune Afrique that he had been arrested by uniformed personnel at the presidential palace.
Military officers then appeared on state television to announce the removal of the president, citing a plot to destabilize the country. The military suspended the electoral process and halted the publication of poll results.
Embal贸 reportedly told France 24, "I have been deposed." Several individuals, including Domingos Pereira, Interior Minister Botch茅 Cand茅, and army chief Gen Biague Na N'tan, were also detained.
The headquarters of the electoral commission was reportedly attacked, and an official stated that armed individuals destroyed documents and the main computer server containing election results, which subsequently prevented their publication.
Reasons for Skepticism
Opposition groups, civil society organizations, and politicians from other West African nations expressed doubts about the military's account.
Embal贸 was released from custody and traveled to neighboring Senegal on a Senegalese military flight the following day. PAIGC official Fl谩vio Batic茫 Ferreira characterized Embal贸's departure as unusual compared to previous instances of deposed leaders, who typically do not leave the country as swiftly. However, some analysts suggested to the BBC that allowing Embal贸 to depart quickly might have been intended to facilitate a smoother transition.
Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who observed the elections, questioned the event, stating that a head of state would not typically be permitted to communicate with foreign media during a military takeover. He described the event as a "ceremonial coup."
The appointment of Gen Horta N'Tam, reportedly a close ally of Embal贸, as the new military leader also raised questions. President Embal贸 has not publicly addressed the allegations that he orchestrated the takeover.
Factors Contributing to the Situation
Critics have previously accused Embal贸 of fabricating coup attempts to suppress opposition, allegations he has denied. He has stated he survived three attempted takeovers.
In December 2023, following a reported coup plot, Embal贸 dissolved the opposition-dominated parliament, resulting in the absence of a sitting legislature since then.
Some civil society organizations have suggested Embal贸 orchestrated the recent events to prevent the publication of potentially unfavorable election results. Political analyst Ryan Cummings indicated that the president's previous actions, such as postponing elections for a year, contributed to these suspicions.
Cummings also noted the possibility that the armed forces acted independently to prevent a political stalemate, as both Embal贸 and Dias claimed victory in the election. Beverly Ochieng, a West Africa analyst, acknowledged the skepticism and stated that tensions within the political elite, along with the decision to ban Pereira from the presidential race, likely contributed to a military intervention.
Current Leadership and Outcomes
Gen Horta N'Tam, formerly the army's chief of staff, has been sworn in as president, with a stated one-year transition period. Gen N'Tam has appointed a new cabinet composed of 23 ministers and five secretaries of state.
Embal贸 has since departed Senegal for Congo-Brazzaville. Reports indicate his departure followed his dissatisfaction with the Senegalese Prime Minister's characterization of the event as a "sham."
Fernando Dias da Costa, the presidential challenger, stated he evaded arrest during the takeover and has been granted asylum by Nigeria.
Public Reaction
On Saturday, hundreds of protesters demonstrated, demanding the release of Domingos Pereira and the publication of the election results. Three civil society groups have initiated calls for a general strike and a civil disobedience campaign, advocating for the restoration of "electoral truth."
Public responses have varied; some residents have expressed support for the army and hope for an orderly transition. The overall atmosphere in the country has been described as "tense."