Missouri's Mid-Decade Congressional Redistricting: Legal Challenges and Referendum Efforts
Missouri Republicans initiated a mid-decade congressional redistricting process in 2025, following a similar action in Texas. This marks Missouri as the second GOP-led state to redraw congressional boundaries outside of the decennial census cycle. The stated aim of this redistricting was to potentially unseat Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City and to support Republican efforts to maintain control of the U.S. House in 2026. The new map was subsequently approved and sent to Governor Mike Kehoe for enactment.
Legal Challenges to Mid-Decade Redistricting
The redistricting initiative has led to multiple lawsuits challenging its legality. A central argument in these cases revolves around whether Missouri lawmakers are constitutionally permitted to redraw congressional boundaries mid-decade. Opponents assert that a state constitutional amendment dictates congressional redistricting should only occur following a decennial census. The Missouri Supreme Court is anticipated to rule on these cases in 2026.
The "Air Bud Rule" Argument
Defenders of the Missouri redistricting plan have presented an argument colloquially known as the "Air Bud Rule." This argument contends that because the Missouri Constitution does not explicitly prohibit mid-decade redistricting, such actions are permissible.
- GOP Secretary of State Denny Hoskins supported this interpretation, suggesting the new map could be informally named the "Air Bud Clause" if upheld by courts.
- Democratic State Representative Mark Boyko publicly referenced this argument on the House floor.
- Attorney Chuck Hatfield, representing plaintiffs against the map, stated in court, "we don't do Air Bud rules in Missouri for very good reason, but that's essentially what the argument is from the state."
- Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway confirmed that the state's main argument aligns with this principle, noting that the Constitution specifies redistricting "shall happen after the decennial census" but "doesn't say that it shall happen immediately after; that it should happen only once per decade; that it can't be revisited."
Potential for Statewide Referendum
A significant aspect of the newly drawn map is its vulnerability to a statewide referendum. Due to the legislative process, the bill did not go into effect immediately, making it subject to Missouri's referendum procedures.
- If opponents collect a sufficient number of signatures by December 11, the map could be placed on a statewide ballot.
- A successful referendum would prevent the map from taking effect for the 2026 election cycle, potentially nullifying the primary objective of the special redistricting session.
- Reports indicate that many lawmakers were not aware the map could be subjected to a statewide vote. State Representative Bryant Wolfin stated he believed the majority of the caucus was unaware.
- Opponents are actively gathering signatures across the state. This possibility has generated engagement among Missouri Democrats.
Conclusion
The Missouri mid-decade redistricting effort faces ongoing legal scrutiny and the potential for direct voter intervention through a statewide referendum. The outcomes of these challenges will determine the future of the state's congressional districts.