North Carolina and Texas are conducting some of the nation's first statewide primary elections, with outcomes potentially influencing the control of Congress.
Voters in both states will cast ballots on March 3rd.
Texas GOP Senate Primary
The Republican Senate primary in Texas is focusing on candidates' alignment with former President Trump. Senator John Cornyn, elected in 2002, emphasizes his consistent voting record with Trump. His primary opponent, Ken Paxton, Texas' Attorney General, has faced legal challenges, which he asserts are politically motivated. Congressman Wesley Hunt is also polling in the race.
A runoff is possible if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote.
North Carolina GOP Senate Primary
In North Carolina, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley has Trump's endorsement for the U.S. Senate nomination. He is competing in a primary against opponents who claim closer alignment with Trump's agenda.
The winner will face former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in the general election.
Democratic Senate Prospects
Democrats are aiming to flip Republican-held Senate seats in both Texas and North Carolina, despite a long history of Republican statewide victories in Texas.
Voter concerns about the cost of living and immigration enforcement are noted. In Texas, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico are competing for the Democratic nomination. In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper's entry largely cleared the Democratic primary field, setting him up against Whatley.
Voter Dissatisfaction and Incumbent Challenges
Observations from recent special election primaries suggest potential voter dissatisfaction with incumbent party leaders. In North Carolina, Democratic Congresswoman Valerie Foushee faces a primary challenge, and Republican State Senate leader Phil Berger is challenged by Sheriff Sam Page.
Texas Senator John Cornyn's ability to retain his seat is also a key watch point, with a runoff possibility under state law if no candidate reaches 50% of the vote.
The Latino Vote in Texas
The influence of Latino swing voters in Texas is a factor in the primaries.
The economy and immigration were key issues for Latino support for Trump in 2024. Experts like Brandon Rottinghaus note the Latino electorate's role as a swing vote and observed increased Democratic turnout in some Latino-majority counties. Daniel Garza of the LIBRE Initiative suggests that Latinos becoming comfortable voting Republican poses a challenge for Democrats.
Redistricting's Impact
Recent redistricting efforts, some initiated during the Trump administration, have led to fewer competitive congressional contests.
Texas lawmakers were asked to redraw maps to create more Republican-leaning seats. North Carolina's GOP-controlled legislature also redrew its 1st Congressional District to favor Republicans, potentially challenging incumbent Democratic Congressman Don Davis. Some Democratic-led states, such as California, have created maps to favor their own party.
Primary Voting Information
Voter guides for the North Carolina and Texas primaries are available online. Resources can be found from state election boards and local news outlets.