One year has passed since the departure of President Bashar al-Assad from Syria on December 8, 2024, following a swift rebel offensive. Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has assumed the role of interim president, leading a new administration amidst efforts to stabilize the nation and engage with the international community. This period has seen legislative progress in the United States to repeal economic sanctions, public celebrations, and the beginnings of recovery, yet the country continues to grapple with significant humanitarian concerns, sectarian tensions, and the immense task of reconstruction after 14 years of civil conflict.
The Fall of the Former Government and Rise of New Leadership
The departure of Bashar al-Assad, ending the 50-year rule by the Assad dynasty, occurred on December 8, 2024. He, along with his wife Asma, was transported by Russian forces to Moscow, where they currently reside in exile. Assad's exit followed an offensive initiated in late November 2024 by groups from Syria's northwest, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Ahmed al-Sharaa. The offensive, which military officials stated was intended to preempt a projected major offensive by Assad's forces in Idlib province and broaden the conflict's scope, progressed rapidly. Aleppo was captured within three days, followed by the collapse of Syrian army defenses in Hama and Homs, clearing a path to Damascus. Concurrently, insurgent groups in the south advanced toward the capital.
Ahmed al-Sharaa now serves as the interim president of Syria. His background includes fighting for al-Qaeda in Iraq and serving as a commander with the group that evolved into Islamic State. He later disassociated from and engaged in conflict with both IS and al-Qaeda, reportedly developing a pragmatic approach to governing Syria's diverse religious landscape. Upon assuming leadership, al-Sharaa delivered a nationwide address, stating his commitment to fulfilling the country's potential and asserting, "The people granted us their trust after years of oppression and injustice. So let our motto be 'honesty,' and our pledge be construction." He also conveyed a message of national reconciliation and non-aggression toward neighboring countries and Western states.
U.S. Sanctions Relief and Economic Outlook
Concurrently with the anniversary, the U.S. House of Representatives voted on Wednesday to repeal sanctions imposed under the Caesar Act, which was enacted in 2019 following reports of killings and torture attributed to the Assad regime. The Syrian Foreign Ministry characterized this development as a "pivotal moment" that could restore opportunities for the Syrian populace. The U.S. Senate is anticipated to approve the repeal the following week.
The removal of sanctions is projected to facilitate billions of dollars in investment for infrastructure and humanitarian aid, areas previously hindered by international adherence to U.S. financial restrictions. It is also expected to benefit local commerce. A Syrian travel company owner noted that the repeal would allow transactions with international payment systems like Visa and Mastercard. The CEO of 77 Auto, a company importing electric vehicles from China, indicated that lifting sanctions would enable the activation of vehicle software using Syrian registrations, circumventing the current need for registrations in China or the UK. Under the previous regime, the possession or accounting use of the U.S. dollar was prohibited, potentially leading to imprisonment.
Despite these developments, the national economy remains underperforming. While some Gulf countries have pledged investment, limited progress has been observed on the ground. The World Bank estimates the cost of rebuilding war-affected areas at $216 billion. Many Syrians continue to experience widespread poverty, with some expressing optimism for the future despite personal hardships.
Domestic Challenges and Sectarian Dynamics
Domestically, al-Sharaa's authority is not universally established across Syria. Areas in the north-east remain under Kurdish control, while parts of the south, inhabited by Syrian Druze communities, have expressed aspirations for a separate state supported by Israeli allies. The Alawite community on the coast, which formed the basis of the Assad regime's power, also remains cautious, recalling past incidents.
The period has seen instances of sectarian violence. In March, clashes between new government forces and pro-former government fighters in Alawite areas reportedly led to the deaths of approximately 1,400 people, predominantly adult men, but also including women, elderly, disabled individuals, and children. A UN investigation found no evidence of government orders for these attacks but noted concerns about the government's ability to control armed Sunni groups supposedly integrated into its security forces. Some individuals responsible for these events have faced trial. Additionally, a suicide bombing at a church in June, claimed by a militant Sunni Muslim group, contributed to fear among Christians. In July, violence erupted between Druze and Bedouin communities in Sweida province, leading to government intervention and clashes with Druze militias.
Concerns persist regarding future stability, with ongoing tensions between the new government in Damascus and Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, despite a March agreement intended to integrate their forces. Local Druze groups in Sweida province have also established a de facto administration and military.
International Relations and Border Security
Al-Sharaa has engaged in diplomatic efforts, establishing ties with Western and Arab nations that had previously maintained distance from the Syrian government. Within two weeks of his ascent to power, a US delegation visited Syria, leading to the removal of a $10 million bounty previously placed on al-Sharaa. A notable event occurred in November when al-Sharaa visited the White House, making him the first Syrian president to do so since 1946. During his meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, Trump reportedly described him as a "young attractive tough guy" and offered him cologne for his wife. Saudi Arabia and Western governments generally view al-Sharaa as a critical factor for stability in the region, cautioning against a return to civil conflict.
Israel has expressed apprehension regarding Syria's new leadership, despite al-Sharaa's stated aim of avoiding conflict. Israel has occupied a formerly U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria and has conducted regular airstrikes and incursions since Assad's departure, citing national security interests related to preventing weapons from falling into unauthorized hands. Attempts by the US to broker a security agreement between Israel and Syria have stalled, with Syria seeking a return to the 1974 agreement and Israel demanding demilitarization of a large area south of Damascus and retention of seized land.
Israeli ground incursions into Syria intensified in recent months. On November 28, an Israeli raid in the border village of Beit Jinn reportedly led to clashes, with six Israelis wounded and at least 13 local residents killed, along with dozens wounded, according to state media. The Damascus government condemned the incident as a war crime. US President Trump commented on his Truth Social platform, expressing satisfaction with Sharaa's stabilization efforts and urging Israel to maintain dialogue with Syria.
Humanitarian Concerns and Reconstruction Efforts
The civil conflict, which lasted 13 to 14 years, resulted in an estimated half a million fatalities and millions displaced, leaving the country extensively damaged and fragmented. The United Nations reports that hundreds of thousands remain missing, with many believed to be interred in mass graves; one such site near Damascus is estimated to contain approximately 20,000 bodies.
The UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) expressed concerns regarding the pace of justice, reporting that hundreds of individuals have been killed over the past year by various actors, including security forces, groups associated with the former government, local armed groups, and unidentified individuals. Other reported violations include sexual violence, arbitrary detentions, property destruction, forced evictions, and restrictions on freedoms, primarily affecting Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Bedouin communities. The Mines Advisory Group reported that at least 590 individuals, including 167 children, have died from landmine incidents in Syria since Assad's departure, projecting a high casualty rate for 2025.
Reconstruction efforts have primarily been driven by individual property owners financing repairs to their homes and businesses. For example, the Yarmouk Palestinian camp, largely abandoned after 2018, has seen a gradual return of former residents, with structural repairs and some business reopenings. However, large-scale reconstruction initiatives have not commenced, and a government-led reconstruction fund is absent.
Individual Accounts and Societal Impact
Public celebrations, including fireworks and vehicles sounding horns, occurred in Damascus for several days leading up to the anniversary. Worshippers in Damascus chanted "Allahu akbar!" and women performed traditional ululations in the streets. Photographs of individuals killed during the 2011 and 2012 uprising were displayed. One resident expressed gratitude for the perceived freedom since the former regime's removal.
Mohammad Marwan, a father of three, was released from Saydnaya prison near Damascus on December 8, 2024, after being imprisoned since 2018 for evading compulsory military service. He reported experiencing severe treatment, including beatings and electric shocks, upon arrival at Saydnaya. Following his release, he was diagnosed with tuberculosis and experienced anxiety and sleep disturbances; he is currently receiving treatment and therapy. Marwan noted an improved national situation but faces economic difficulties, earning approximately $5 daily, and plans to seek employment in Lebanon.
The U.N. refugee agency reports that over 1 million refugees and nearly 2 million internally displaced Syrians have returned to their homes since Assad's departure. However, the absence of widespread employment opportunities and comprehensive reconstruction may lead some to seek alternatives. Many Syrians express concerns about future stability, lack of essential services like schools and clinics, and ongoing safety issues.