Nepal's Rastriya Swatantra Party Secures Parliamentary Majority, Balendra Shah Sworn In as Prime Minister; Former PM Oli Arrested

Nepal's recent parliamentary election saw the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by Balendra Shah, secure a majority of seats, leading to Shah's swearing-in as Prime Minister.

This election, the first since widespread youth-led anti-corruption protests in September, marked a significant shift in the country's political landscape. Following Shah's assumption of office, former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and his former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak were arrested in connection with deaths that occurred during those protests.

National Election Results and New Leadership

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), a centrist-liberal political organization established in 2022, secured 182 out of 275 seats in the parliamentary election held on March 5. This outcome positions the party for a potential single-party government, challenging the historical dominance of the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist). Early returns showed the RSP leading in directly elected and proportional representation seats, with some reports indicating leads in up to 110 of 165 directly elected races and approximately 51% of proportional representation seats. Voter turnout for the election was approximately 59-60% of nearly 19 million registered voters.

Balendra Shah, a 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician and leader of the RSP, was sworn in as Nepal's new Prime Minister by President Ram Chandra Paudel. Shah, formerly the mayor of Kathmandu after winning the 2022 mayoral race, is the first Madhesi premier from Nepal's southern plains. His campaign centered on health, education for disadvantaged Nepalis, and anti-corruption efforts. Prior to his swearing-in, Shah released a rap song titled 'Jay Mahakaali'. Party officials requested candidates and supporters to forgo victory rallies in deference to lives lost in earlier protests.

Shah competed directly against former four-time Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), in the Jhapa-5 constituency, a region historically considered an Oli stronghold. Shah defeated Oli, securing 68,348 votes against Oli's 18,734. The Nepali Congress obtained 38 seats, while Oli's Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) secured 25 seats. More than 3,400 candidates competed for 165 directly elected seats in the 275-member House of Representatives, with another 110 seats allocated via proportional representation based on party vote share. Initial analyst predictions before final results suggested the election was unlikely to result in an outright majority for any single party.

Background: Youth-Led Protests and Political Shift

The parliamentary election was the first since widespread, youth-led protests occurred approximately six months prior. These demonstrations, which began in September, were initially sparked by a proposed social media ban and escalated into a broader revolt against corruption and poor governance, as well as concerns over economic hardship. The events resulted in 76 fatalities and over 2,300 injuries following clashes between protestors and police. Government offices, police stations, and politicians' homes were reportedly damaged, and some leaders were evacuated by military helicopters.

The protests contributed to the collapse of the previous government led by former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Oli had stated the protests were a "conspiracy to topple his government" and denied accusations of fleeing after his resignation. Following the government's collapse, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was appointed as Nepal's first female interim prime minister, overseeing the transitional period leading up to the election.

Arrest of Former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli

On Saturday, former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak were arrested by police in connection with the deaths that occurred during the September protests. The arrests took place one day after Balendra Shah was sworn in as Prime Minister. Both were apprehended at their residences on the outskirts of Kathmandu and transported to the Kathmandu District Police office. Oli, 74, who has undergone two kidney transplants, was later moved to a hospital from the police office.

The arrests followed a recommendation from a Nepali panel that investigated violence during the protests. This commission had suggested prosecution for negligence, recommending a prison sentence of up to 10 years for Oli, Lekhak, and the police chief at the time. The investigation panel attributed responsibility to Oli for not taking action to prevent hours of firing that resulted in the deaths of at least 19 Gen Z protesters on the first day of demonstrations.

Home Minister Sudan Gurung confirmed the arrests, stating, "No one is above the law... This is not revenge against anyone, it is just the beginning of justice."

Lekhak was specifically accused of issuing orders for authorities to use force against protesters.

Oli's lawyer, Tikaram Bhattarai, described the arrest as unwarranted and illegal, arguing there was no risk of him evading questioning or flight. Following the arrests, hundreds of Oli's supporters gathered near the prime minister's office to protest and demand his release. Demonstrators chanted slogans against the new government, burned tires, and clashed with riot police, resulting in seven arrests. Oli and Lekhak are scheduled to appear before the court on Sunday.

Challenges for the New Administration

The incoming administration faces significant challenges, including addressing public expectations and demands raised during the protests, tackling entrenched corruption, and managing diplomatic ties with neighboring India and China. Nepal, a country of 30 million, grapples with issues such as a lack of jobs, widespread poverty affecting a fifth of its population, and political instability, with 32 governments since 1990, none completing a full five-year term. Approximately 1,500 people reportedly leave Nepal daily for work abroad.