Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq are reportedly preparing for a potential cross-border ground operation into Iran. These preparations follow reports of discussions between the United States and Kurdish forces regarding potential support for an uprising in Iran, though a later report indicated a rejection by President Trump of mobilizing Kurdish forces for a ground offensive. Israel has also reportedly been active in western Iran. These developments have led to increased tensions along the Iran-Iraq border, with Iran launching airstrikes and warnings targeting Kurdish camps in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq has affirmed its neutrality in the situation.
Reported US and Israeli Engagement
Reports indicate that the United States has been in discussions with opposition Kurdish forces concerning the possibility of arming them to support an uprising in Iran. According to CNN, the Trump administration was actively discussing arming Kurdish groups, with objectives cited as leveraging Kurdish forces to extend Iranian military resources, potentially facilitating popular protests, or enabling them to secure and control northern Iran to establish a buffer for Israel.
President Trump reportedly held conversations with Mustafa Hijri, head of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), as well as Masoud Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Bafel Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in Iraq. Bafel Talabani confirmed a call with Trump, stating it offered an opportunity to understand US objectives. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reported to have advocated for US-Kurdish engagement for several months.
A US official reportedly indicated that the United States was prepared to offer air support should Kurdish Peshmerga fighters from northern Iraq cross the border into Iran.
A spokesperson for Israel's military stated that its air force has been significantly active in western Iran to reduce Iranian capabilities and establish operational freedom towards Tehran.
Some reports suggested that these actions by Israel, including short-range drone attacks against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) units, aim to create "access points" for lightly-armed Kurdish fighters to enter Iran.
However, a report on March 7 stated that US President Donald Trump rejected the idea of mobilizing Kurdish forces for a ground offensive, citing concerns about complicating the broader conflict.
Reports also emerged alleging CIA involvement in arming Iranian Kurdish groups, though some sources within Kurdish opposition groups denied these claims.
Kurdish Opposition Mobilization and Objectives
Iranian Kurdish dissident groups, primarily based in northern Iraq, have reportedly been preparing for cross-border military operations. Khalil Nadiri, an official with the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) in northern Iraq, confirmed that some of their forces have moved near the Iranian border in Sulaymaniyah province and are on standby.
A new coalition of five or six rival Iranian Kurdish organizations, led by the KDPI, has formed with the stated aim of challenging the Tehran regime.
A KDPI spokesperson reportedly indicated that the regime is in a "deeply weak situation" and called on Iranian military personnel to abandon their posts.
Sources from Komala, a prominent Iranian Kurdish opposition group, indicated that 15,000 to 20,000 fighters are positioned near the Iraqi-Iran border and could mobilize within days. These sources reported plans to call for an uprising and activate "thousands of sleeper cells within Iran" once they enter. Their current armaments are described as light weapons acquired from the black market in Northern Iraq.
Some fighters are reported to have traveled from Europe and the United States, converging at undisclosed training camps along the Iraqi Kurdistan-Iran border.
Peshmerga fighters, including men and women, have expressed their commitment to fighting for Kurdish freedom and autonomy within Iran. While their objective is to reclaim Kurdish territories within Iran, they reportedly do not intend to advance on Tehran. They also stated that hundreds of IRGC fighters would be offered full immunity if they surrendered.
Baloch militant groups opposed to the Tehran regime have also reportedly moved from mountain bases in Pakistan into Iran, with intensified activity in the southeast.
Strategic Context and Perceived Challenges
Experts suggest that backing armed groups from Iran’s ethnic communities could exacerbate internal divisions and increase the risk of civil conflict if the current regime collapses.
Analysts such as Neil Quilliam of Chatham House commented that such a plan might intensify internal conflict rather than promote peace, characterizing it as an "afterthought" lacking integration into broader strategic planning.
Security experts assess that Kurdish ground forces alone may be insufficient to overthrow the Iranian government, noting that they would likely be outnumbered and outmatched by the IRGC. Suggestions include that these groups could potentially establish a Kurdish-controlled enclave in western Iran under US and Israeli air cover, serving as a staging ground for attacks. However, one analyst described a mission to achieve regime change without substantial American ground support as "suicide."
The United States has historically utilized Kurdish fighters as auxiliaries, including during the 2003 Iraq invasion and in the fight against ISIS. However, concerns exist among analysts and Kurdish groups regarding potential US withdrawal of support, referencing previous shifts in US policy in Syria.
Iranian Response and Regional Stance
Iran has responded to these developments with intense airstrikes and warnings. Iranian drones and ballistic missiles have targeted camps associated with Iranian Kurdish groups, such as the KDPI and Komala, in northern Iraq. One attack targeted the Azadi camp and another targeted Komala's Surdash camp, which housed fighters' families, resulting in damage but no reported casualties.
Iran has reiterated warnings that "all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq" will face "extensive targeting" if any Iranian Kurdish fighters cross the border.
The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has expressed concern regarding these threats and affirmed its neutrality in the ongoing conflict. Qubad Talabani, Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq's Kurdistan region, and Dr. Dilshad Shahab, spokesperson for Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, both stated that no threats against Iran or any other country would be permitted from its borders. Local opposition within Iraqi Kurdistan has also been reported, with some expressing apprehension about potential Iranian retaliation if attacks were launched from their territory.
Historical Context of the Kurdish People
The Kurds constitute a significant ethnic group globally without an independent nation, with an estimated population of 30 to 40 million, primarily residing in areas bordering Armenia, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Their stateless status originated a century ago following the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent demarcation of modern Middle Eastern borders.
Historically, Kurds have faced repression from various authoritarian regimes in the region, leading to displacement and casualties. In Iran, an estimated 8 million Kurds reside, predominantly in western Iran's Kurdistan province. Kurdish regions in Iran have a history of resisting central authority, dating back to the 1979 revolution. They were also central to widespread domestic unrest in 2022, triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian-Kurdish woman. The movement for Kurdish independence has persisted across generations. While most Kurds are Sunni Muslim, there are notable religious minorities.
The Peshmerga, whose name translates to "those who seek death," have gained a reputation as effective fighters through various conflicts, including their role as ground forces in the US-led coalition's campaign against Islamic State in both Syria and Iraq.