Widespread Strikes and Retaliation Mark Escalation in Middle East Conflict

A broad regional conflict has intensified following the launch of "Operations Roaring Lion" and "Epic Fury" by Israel and the United States on February 28. These operations, stated to aim for creating conditions for regime change, have coincided with a significant increase in strikes on Iranian territory, including the reported deaths of key Iranian figures. Iran has responded with retaliatory ballistic missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, targeting Gulf nations, US military bases, and various other sites, while also conducting operations against Kurdish groups in Iraq and being accused of a drone attack on Azerbaijan.

The conflict escalated on February 28, with "Operations Roaring Lion" and "Epic Fury" targeting Iran, leading to significant strikes and high-profile casualties, and triggering widespread Iranian retaliation across the Middle East.

Commencement of Operations and Strikes on Iran

On February 28, Israel and the United States initiated joint military actions under the designations "Operations Roaring Lion" and "Epic Fury." The stated objective of these operations was to create conditions for regime change in Iran.

Reports indicate an Israeli strike on a bunker in Tehran resulted in the deaths of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s defense minister, and several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals. This event was described as the largest aerial attack ever conducted by the Israeli Air Force (IAF). Additionally, US and Israeli forces reportedly conducted strikes that resulted in the death of a commander from the IRGC Basij militia's Shiraz units, identified as Ebrahim Mortazavi-Nasb, last week.

IDF intelligence reports indicate over 6,000 members of the IRGC have been killed and approximately 15,000 wounded since the start of Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury. A senior military official informed Walla that "senior officials are being pursued" and are reportedly deleting posts on X/Twitter. Over 10,000 munitions have reportedly been used against the Iranian regime since the conflict began.

The IDF initially targeted Iran's military industry and has since shifted focus to its defense industries and security infrastructure. While major command centers in Tehran were reportedly addressed early in the conflict, current operations include targeting Basij command centers across all Iranian provinces. The IDF confirmed its air force destroyed a ballistic missile platform preparing to launch from Qom, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated its goal was to "eliminate" Iran's mobile missile launch capabilities.

Strikes by US and Israeli forces have been reported in various Iranian cities and locations, including:

• Tehran, Khormarbad, and Yazd (N12 News footage, IDF confirmation for Tehran infrastructure).
• Bandar Abbas, Bandar Khamir, and Bushehr (Eyewitness reports cited by Iran International).
• Shiraz (Video footage reportedly showing flames at a military base).
• Sanandaj, Saqqez, and Bukan (Explosions reported).
• Iran's Air Force headquarters in Dushan Tappeh, West Azerbaijan Province (Iranian media reports cited by Iran International).

An IDF strike on a state-run radio transmitter in Bandar Abbas reportedly resulted in one fatality and one injury. Explosions have been reported in eastern Tehran, and Iran has activated its air defenses in response to these attacks. Al Jazeera reported massive blasts and shockwaves in eastern Tehran. Reports from Iranian media suggest over 150 Iranian cities have been attacked since Saturday, leading a significant portion of Tehran's population to reportedly evacuate. Strikes are reportedly coordinated between the IDF and the US military.

Iranian Retaliation and Regional Strikes

Following the initiation of Israeli and US operations, Iran launched retaliatory attacks across the Middle East, targeting Gulf nations and US military bases in the region.

Reports of Iranian missile and drone activity include:

• Saudi Arabia: At least three drones were reportedly intercepted, and another drone was shot down near the al-Jawf region.
• Qatar: Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported its air defense systems intercepted a missile attack, with explosions heard over Doha. Qatar also ordered evacuations near the US Embassy in Doha.
• Iraq: A US military base near Baghdad international airport was reportedly targeted.
• Oman: Oman Oil Marketing Company reported damage to one of its storage tanks.
• Eastern Mediterranean: Turkiye’s Ministry of National Defence stated that a ballistic missile fired from Iran towards Turkish airspace was destroyed by NATO air and missile defense systems after passing Syria and Iraq. Iran's armed forces denied firing any missiles towards Turkish territory.
• Israel: Israel's Channel 12 reported its air defense system intercepted two drones over western Galilee.
• Lebanon: The Israel-Hezbollah front has seen renewed activity, including Israeli bombardment and incursions.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkiye is taking necessary precautions in consultation with NATO allies and issuing clear warnings to prevent similar incidents.

Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that two drones, allegedly launched from Iran, targeted its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave on a Thursday at approximately 12 noon (08:00 GMT). One drone reportedly struck the terminal building of the airport in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, while another reportedly fell near a school building in Shakarabad village. Azerbaijan stated that the attack injured two civilians and caused material damage at the airport. Azerbaijan condemned the attacks, demanded an explanation from Iran, and summoned the Iranian Ambassador, Mojtaba Demirchilou, over the incident.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi denied that the country had targeted Azerbaijan, stating that Iran does not target neighboring countries. Gharibabadi asserted that "Iran’s policy is only to strike the military bases of its enemies" that are active in the region and used to attack Iran, specifically mentioning those of the US and Israel. Nakhchivan, which borders Iran and Turkiye, was part of a US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iran has historically opposed the proposed Zangezur corridor, a transit route connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, fearing it could isolate Iran from Armenia and the Caucasus and bring potentially foreign forces closer to its borders. A senior military official noted Iran's firing at Turkey and Azerbaijan as "unclear" but indicates potential issues between the political leadership and ground forces.

Iranian forces have initiated operations targeting Kurdish groups in Iraq's semi-autonomous region. Iran's Press TV and intelligence ministry reported that the military was targeting "anti-Iran separatist forces" and "separatist groups" intending to cross western borders, claiming heavy losses for these groups. The intelligence ministry's statement indicated cooperation with "noble Kurds" to counter what it described as an "Israeli-American" plan to attack Iranian soil.

Reports from local media indicate at least four blasts in Sulaimaniyah province, northern Iraq, near Arabat, Zarkuiz, and Surdash. Local sources indicated attacks targeted the headquarters of the Kurdistan Toilers Association (Komala), an Iranian Kurdish armed group. Reports suggest Iranian Kurdish armed groups had consulted with the US regarding potential attacks on Iranian security forces and the support they might receive.

The Iraqi Kurdistan's regional government denied involvement in arming Kurdish groups or sending them into Iran. Nechirvan Barzani, president of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, stated the region must not become part of any conflict that harms citizens.

Casualties Reported Across the Conflict

Casualties have been reported by various sources across the region since February 28:

• Israel: Reports indicate between 11 and 19 civilians were killed, with injuries ranging from 3,440 to 4,829 individuals in ballistic missile attacks. Two IDF soldiers were also reported killed.
• United States: Eleven US soldiers have been reported killed.
• Iran: At least 1,045 fatalities across Iran have been reported since Saturday by Tasnim news agency. Additionally, one fatality and one injury resulted from an IDF strike on a state-run radio transmitter in Bandar Abbas.
• Azerbaijan: Two civilians were reported injured during the drone incident in Nakhchivan.