A diplomatic dispute has intensified between Japan and China following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks last month regarding Japan's potential involvement in a Taiwan conflict. China has subsequently initiated diplomatic efforts to isolate Japan.
China's Diplomatic and Economic Actions
In recent weeks, China has engaged in diplomatic outreach, attempting to garner support from leaders in the U.S., U.K., and France for its position. Chinese leader Xi Jinping conveyed to President Trump on November 24 that "Taiwan's return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order." President Trump's social media post about the call did not mention Taiwan.
China's campaign includes various tools. The nation has lodged two letters of protest with the United Nations. It has also suspended seafood imports from Japan, advised its citizens against travel to Japan, and canceled cultural events such as movie screenings and concerts.
Context of Japan's Security Legislation
Japan's constitution prohibits offensive warfare. However, 2015 security legislation permits the use of its military for self-defense, either in response to an armed attack on Japan or an attack on an ally (specifically the U.S., with whom Japan has a mutual defense treaty since 1960) that constitutes an existential threat to Japan. The prime minister and Cabinet possess discretion in defining an existential threat, subject to parliamentary approval.
During a parliamentary budget committee hearing on November 7, opposition lawmaker Katsuya Okada questioned Prime Minister Takaichi about circumstances under which a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could threaten Japan's survival. Takaichi responded that such a blockade involving Chinese warships could potentially constitute an existential threat. Okada expressed concern that this interpretation provided broad governmental discretion.
Strategic Ambiguity and Policy Deviation
The U.S., China, and Japan have generally maintained strategic ambiguity regarding potential actions in a Taiwan conflict. Lawmakers, however, sought clarity from Takaichi on this matter.
Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, Beijing, stated that Takaichi's remarks were a significant misstep. Takaichi has since committed to refraining from discussing hypothetical Taiwan scenarios. She defended her parliamentary statements, noting she sought to provide specific examples when asked, rather than merely repeating previous government positions.
Prime Minister Takaichi is not the sole leader to deviate from strategic ambiguity. U.S. President Joe Biden has made similar statements on four occasions, with the White House subsequently reiterating no change in U.S. policy.
Akio Takahara, a political scientist at Tokyo University, offered an explanation for China's pressure campaign targeting Japan rather than the U.S., suggesting it relates to the perceived relative strength of the two nations. Zhou Bo highlighted the military disparity between China and Japan, asserting that an independent Japanese defense of Taiwan would be impossible.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
Takahara noted that Japan-China relations have historically experienced fluctuations and are likely to recover. He also observed that China's current reactions to perceived offenses from Japan appear milder compared to past incidents, such as the 2012 protests following Japan's purchase of the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.
While President Trump has maintained good relations with Takaichi, he has not publicly commented on the Japan-China dispute or expressed support for Takaichi. Reports suggesting Trump advised Takaichi against escalating the feud have been denied by the Japanese government. Some Japanese observers have voiced concerns about potential U.S. deals with China that could affect Taiwan and Japan.
China continues to demand a retraction of Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks. Takaichi has declined to retract but remains open to negotiations. Zhou Bo stated that the Taiwan issue is a matter of critical importance for China, leaving little room for compromise from Beijing's perspective.
Historically, China has allowed disputes with governments, including South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, to persist until new administrations initiated appeasing gestures. Given Takaichi's recent assumption of office, a resolution through a change in Japanese leadership could be prolonged.