"A powerful low-pressure system over the Midwest is drawing warm, humid air northward, creating conditions favorable for rotating supercell thunderstorms."
Major Multi-Day Storm System Targets Central & Eastern U.S.
A major storm system is forecast to impact a large portion of the United States, from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast, over a multi-day period. The Storm Prediction Center has issued risk assessments for severe thunderstorms, including the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, affecting millions of residents in major metropolitan areas.
Meteorological Setup
A powerful low-pressure system developing over the Midwest is drawing warm, humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters indicate that this moisture, combined with strengthening winds in the upper atmosphere, is creating conditions favorable for rotating supercell thunderstorms.
High-altitude winds are projected to exceed 60 mph, which is expected to contribute to fast-moving storms.
Affected Regions & Risk Levels
Sunday: Central Plains & Middle Missouri Valley
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 5 risk for parts of the Central Plains and Middle Missouri Valley. The affected area includes eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, northwest Iowa, and southeast South Dakota.
A separate Level 3 risk covers the Mid-South and Ohio Valley, including cities such as Nashville, Indianapolis, Memphis, Louisville, and Little Rock.
Monday: East Coast & I-95 Corridor
The threat level is upgraded to a Level 4 out of 5 for Monday, impacting Washington, D.C., and surrounding metropolitan areas. Residents from North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic region are advised to remain alert.
Chicago & Dallas Regions
- Chicago is currently under a Level 3 of 5 severe storm threat.
- Dallas and the North Texas region are also expecting severe weather.
Timeline & Threat Progression
Sunday Afternoon
Storm development is anticipated to begin between 2:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. CT. By mid-afternoon, individual supercell storms are anticipated to develop across Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
In the Central Plains, the greatest risk for supercell development with potential for tornadoes and large hail is expected from late afternoon to early evening.
Sunday Evening & Night
Individual supercells are projected to merge into bowing clusters, forming a line of storms. This merger may reduce the tornado threat but elevate the risk of damaging winds. The storm line is forecast to move through Iowa and Missouri and maintain strength into Illinois and Wisconsin overnight.
Monday
The severe weather is projected to continue until late Monday night along the East Coast. The most critical period for severe weather is anticipated from early afternoon through the evening commute.
Primary Hazards
Tornadoes
Sources indicate a risk of strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher). Forecasters have expressed increased concern regarding the potential for long-track tornadoes. Nighttime tornadoes present heightened risks due to reduced visibility and the potential for individuals to be asleep when warnings are issued.
Hail
Very large hail is possible, with reports indicating hail could potentially reach baseball size in some areas.
Damaging Winds
A squall line of thunderstorms is expected with straight-line winds potentially exceeding 70 mph. Destructive wind gusts are anticipated as the storm line pushes eastward.
Flooding
Flooding rainfall is also listed as a hazard associated with this storm system.
Southern Plains Details
In Oklahoma and Texas, the dryline introduces an element of uncertainty regarding storm development. A warm air cap (a layer of warm air aloft) may limit storm development, but if atmospheric conditions allow storms to develop through this cap, significant energy would be available. Individual storms are predicted to develop along the dryline in West Texas and move towards the I-35 corridor.
Public Advisory
Residents in the affected areas are advised to enable weather alerts and have a clear plan for reaching safe shelter immediately upon the issuance of any warnings.