Multiple meteorological agencies have issued forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. The forecasts consistently predict a below-average number of storms, primarily attributing this outlook to the expected development of an El Niño pattern. However, forecasts also note that warmer-than-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures and historical precedent create uncertainty regarding the final season outcome.
Forecast Summary
Storm Count Predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) have released the following numerical forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season:
- Named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher): 8 to 14 (NOAA)
- Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher): 3 to 6 (NOAA)
- Major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, winds of 111 mph or higher): 1 to 3 (NOAA)
CSU's forecast predicts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Historical Context for Comparison
- A typical Atlantic hurricane season averages 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
- The last below-average season forecast by NOAA was 2015, which produced 12 named storms during an El Niño year.
- In 2025, the Atlantic season recorded 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 Category 5 hurricanes (Erin, Humberto, and Melissa). For the first time since 2015, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States.
- In 2024, 11 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic. In 2023, 13 named storms occurred despite an initial CSU forecast of 17.
Key Influencing Factors
El Niño Development
All forecasts identify the development of El Niño as the primary factor suggesting reduced Atlantic activity. El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- NOAA estimates an 82% chance of El Niño onset by July and a 96% chance it will persist through the winter.
- El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic basin. High wind shear can disrupt the formation and organization of tropical storms and hurricanes.
- Conversely, El Niño is associated with reduced wind shear in the Pacific, and NOAA predicts 9 to 14 hurricanes in the Pacific basin this season.
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
Atlantic Ocean temperatures are currently warmer than normal but below the record levels recorded in 2023 and 2024.
The western tropical Atlantic, near the Caribbean, is experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures. Parts of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic are exhibiting slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures. Sea surface temperatures are the primary energy source for tropical systems. Unusually warm oceans can increase the likelihood of rapid intensification.
Competing Factors
NOAA's forecast states that the expected El Niño development suppresses activity, while slightly warmer-than-normal Atlantic temperatures and weaker trade winds tend to support more storms.
- 55% probability of a below-normal season
- 35% probability of a near-normal season
- 10% probability of an above-normal season
- The confidence level for the forecast is 70%
CSU's lead author Phil Klotzbach noted that significant changes remain possible before the season's peak.
Statements from Officials
Ken Graham, National Weather Service director, stated that even a below-average season can produce major hurricanes, citing Hurricane Andrew (1992) as an example.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs stated that the agency is integrating AI-based models, drones, and satellite data to produce more accurate forecasts.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that NOAA is prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings using advanced modeling and tracking technologies.
Seasonal Outlook
No tropical activity is expected through the end of May. If early storms form, they are more likely to develop near the U.S., in the Gulf of Mexico or off the Atlantic coast. NOAA plans to update its Atlantic outlook in early August.