Persian Gulf Water Security at Risk Amid Regional Conflict
Analysts warn that water, specifically desalination infrastructure, in the energy-rich but arid Persian Gulf region is increasingly at risk due to ongoing missile and drone attacks. This vulnerability could pose a greater threat than disruptions to oil production.
Recent Incidents and Accusations
Bahrain recently accused Iran of damaging one of its desalination plants. Earlier, Iran reported a U.S. airstrike damaged an Iranian plant on Qeshm Island, impacting water supply for 30 villages. These incidents highlight the direct threat to water infrastructure.
Regional Dependence on Desalination
Hundreds of desalination plants line the Persian Gulf coast, providing drinking water to millions. Kuwait sources approximately 90% of its drinking water from desalination, Oman about 86%, and Saudi Arabia about 70%.
The technology involves removing salt from seawater, primarily through reverse osmosis, to sustain cities, industries, and some agriculture in the arid region.
Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah, describes these nations as "saltwater kingdoms," highlighting their reliance and vulnerability.
Infrastructure Vulnerability
Fighting has occurred near key desalination facilities. Iranian strikes near Dubai's Jebel Ali port landed within 12 miles of one of the world's largest desalination plants. Damage has also been reported at the Fujairah F1 power and water complex in the UAE and Kuwait's Doha West desalination plant, potentially from nearby port attacks or drone debris.
Many plants are integrated with power stations, meaning attacks on electrical grids could also disrupt water production. Disruptions can cascade across interconnected systems, according to David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Ed Cullinane, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence, stated that these assets are no more protected than municipal areas.
Historical Context and Warnings
Concerns over desalination plant vulnerability are long-standing.
A 2010 CIA analysis warned that attacks on these facilities could trigger national crises, with prolonged outages lasting months.
The report noted that over 90% of the Gulf’s desalinated water comes from just 56 plants, making them extremely vulnerable.
During Iraq's 1990-1991 invasion of Kuwait, Iraqi forces sabotaged power and desalination facilities, leading to a critical shortage of fresh water. Yemen's Houthi rebels have also targeted Saudi desalination facilities in recent years.
Emerging Threats: Climate Change and Cyberattacks
Climate change poses additional risks, with warming oceans increasing the likelihood of cyclones that could damage coastal desalination plants through storm surges and extreme rainfall. Desalination itself contributes to carbon emissions and produces brine that can harm marine ecosystems.
Furthermore, the potential for cyberattacks on water infrastructure is a growing concern, with U.S. officials attributing recent hacks on American water utilities to Iran-aligned groups.
Iran's Own Water Challenges
Iran, unlike many Gulf states, primarily relies on rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers, with limited desalination capacity. The country faces severe drought conditions, with Tehran's reservoirs at only 10% capacity, prompting warnings of potential capital evacuation. Efforts to expand desalination are hampered by infrastructure constraints, energy costs, and international sanctions.