Dam Spill Risks and Desalination Order Cancellation: A Look Behind the 2022 Victorian Election

Before the Victorian state election in 2022, an independent water authority reportedly flagged the risk of dam spills becoming an election issue for the Labor government. This warning occurred prior to the government's decision to cancel a desalination order.

Internal emails, obtained through freedom of information requests, show water officials raised concerns about the "material reputational risk" of dam spills while households continued to pay for desalinated water.

This happened days before then-water minister Harriet Shing announced the cancellation of the remaining 15-gigalitre order, citing independent advice.

Key Events and Communications

• September 15, 2022: Melbourne Water's initial unofficial advice indicated that canceling or deferring the desalination order was "not possible or feasible."
• September 13, 2022: A Melbourne Water presentation for a quarterly storage management meeting proposed managing rising storage levels by releasing water, without mentioning the cancellation of the desalination order.
• Week before decision: Correspondence from South East Water employees assessed the political implications of a dam spill. They warned that high water levels could be perceived by the opposition as a government failure, especially if the community was simultaneously paying for desalinated water.
• September 23, 2022: Minister Shing announced the government would suspend the remainder of the 15-gigalitre order, stating she had accepted independent advice from Melbourne Water. This decision reportedly made household water bills nominally cheaper for the rest of the year.

Expert Commentary

Dr. Erin O’Donnell, a senior lecturer in water policy at the University of Melbourne Law School, described the highlighting of political implications by South East Water as "extremely unfortunate."

"It was outside their remit as independent agencies and could undermine their independence and technical expertise."

O'Donnell acknowledged valid reasons for suspending a desalination order during high water storage levels, such as avoiding unnecessary costs for consumers and mitigating flood risks, while also noting desalination's environmental impacts.

She emphasized the importance of independent water authorities providing "frank, fearless, evidence-based advice" to ministers, who should then assess the political implications themselves.

Further Revelations

• The minister’s office reportedly shared a media brief with Melbourne Water on September 20, 2022, hours before the water authority provided its advice to cancel the order to Shing’s department. This suggests a potentially unusual sequence of communication.
• South East Water board minutes indicate customer savings from the cancellation were rounded up, partly due to "political sensitivity" and uncertainty from La Niña rains.

Despite heavy rains and dam spills in 2022, large sections of regional Victoria have since experienced drought conditions. The water outlook for 2026 suggests a possibility of Melbourne residents returning to water restrictions. The government is considering plans for a second desalination plant or expansion of the existing Wonthaggi site to prepare for future water demand and dry periods.

Official Responses

A government spokeswoman stated that the 2022 desalination order was canceled based on expert advice from Melbourne Water to help prevent avoidable flooding, prioritizing the safety of Victorians.

A Melbourne Water spokeswoman confirmed it provides independent advice annually and determined the desalinated water order was no longer necessary given the unusually high rainfall and storage levels at the time. South East Water strategy and stakeholder general manager Karen Lau noted that Melbourne Water consults with South East Water when advising the government on desalination orders.