Economists regularly publish research on various topics. This report summarizes recent economic papers covering the impact of artificial intelligence on labor, the relationship between online music streaming and traffic fatalities, the effect of minimum wage increases on automation, and the benefits of immigration on elderly mortality.
Pro-Worker Artificial Intelligence
An essay by economists David Autor, Daron Acemoglu, and Simon Johnson explores the concept of "pro-worker artificial intelligence." They propose a future where AI collaborates with humans to enhance existing jobs, create new ones, and improve worker well-being. The authors analyze how technology can affect employment, noting that new tools can eliminate jobs, de-skill tasks (e.g., GPS for taxi drivers), or augment human performance (e.g., legal databases for lawyers). They highlight that new technologies have also historically led to the creation of new occupations.
Autor, Acemoglu, and Johnson envision a future where AI collaborates with humans to enhance existing jobs, create new ones, and improve worker well-being.
The economists express concern that current trends prioritize automation over human-AI collaboration. They identify two primary obstacles:
- Misaligned Incentives: Firms perceive greater economic returns from automating expertise rather than developing technologies that create new tasks or increase the value of human skills.
- Pro-automation Ideology: The tech industry's focus on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may divert efforts from building AI that benefits workers.
To foster pro-worker AI, the authors suggest several policy changes:
- Adjusting tax codes to remove incentives that favor capital (machines, software) over labor.
- Leveraging government involvement in healthcare and education to guide AI adoption that empowers workers and increases productivity.
- Providing government grants to incentivize the development and deployment of pro-worker AI.
- Implementing intellectual property laws to protect human expertise from being mimicked by machines.
- Liberalizing occupational licensure laws, which could allow non-credentialed workers (e.g., nurses with AI assistance) to perform a broader range of tasks.
Streaming and Traffic Fatalities
A working paper by economists Vishal R. Patel, Christopher M. Worsham, Michael Liu, and Anupam B. Jena investigates the link between smartphone use for music streaming and traffic fatalities. Researchers examined data on traffic fatalities and Spotify streaming for the release dates of the ten most streamed albums between 2017 and 2022.
The study found that music streaming increased by nearly 40% on these popular album release days. Concurrently, U.S. traffic fatalities increased by approximately 15% on the same days, suggesting a correlation between increased smartphone use for streaming and higher accident rates.
On popular album release days, music streaming increased by nearly 40%, while U.S. traffic fatalities rose by approximately 15%.
Minimum Wage and Automation
Economists Erik Brynjolfsson, J. Frank Li, Javier Miranda, Robert Seamans, and Andrew J. Wang explored the relationship between minimum wage increases and the adoption of robots in the American manufacturing industry from 1992 to 2021.
Their findings indicate that a 10% increase in the minimum wage correlates with an approximately 8% increase in robot adoption relative to the mean. This research aligns with previous studies in both the U.S. and other countries, which also suggest that minimum wage hikes may lead to greater automation.
A 10% increase in the minimum wage correlates with an approximately 8% increase in robot adoption in American manufacturing.
Immigration and Elderly Mortality
A working paper by David C. Grabowski, Jonathan Gruber, and Brian E. McGarry examines the effect of immigration on older adult mortality in the United States. The authors highlight that immigrants are a significant part of the healthcare workforce, filling shortages in many communities. Approximately one in five frontline nursing home workers, nearly one in three home care workers, and 18% of all healthcare workers are immigrants.
The study estimates that 1,000 new immigrants contribute to 142 new foreign healthcare workers, without displacing native healthcare workers. This influx of healthcare professionals is associated with a statistically significant decline in elderly mortality.
1,000 new immigrants are estimated to result in 9.8 fewer deaths among the elderly annually in the average Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).