The Queensland Redistribution Commission (QRC) has published proposed new state electoral boundaries, marking the first such review since 2017. The comprehensive plan includes the creation of two new electorates, the abolition of two existing seats, and moderate to significant boundary changes for 48 other electorates across the state. These adjustments are expected to take effect for the 2028 state election.
Key Proposals
The QRC's proposals aim to address population growth and electoral quota imbalances across Queensland, ensuring fairer representation.
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New Electorates: Two new electorates are proposed for South East Queensland to manage rapid population expansion:
- Caboolture: This new seat will be established in the Moreton Bay region, formed from parts of the existing Glass House, Morayfield, and Pumicestone electorates.
- Springfield: Created to accommodate substantial population growth and alleviate pressure in the Logan and Ipswich areas, replacing parts of Bundamba and Jordan.
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Abolished Electorates: Two existing seats are proposed for abolition:
- Hill: A north Queensland seat previously held by Katter's Australian Party (KAP). Its territory would be distributed among Flinders (24.5%), Hinchinbrook (approximately half), and Mulgrave. KAP member Shane Knuth, who currently holds the seat, has indicated his intention to contest the proposal.
- Stretton: A Brisbane-based metropolitan seat currently held by Labor. Approximately two-thirds of its voters would be moved to Eight Mile Plains (formerly Toohey) and the remainder to Algester.
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Boundary Alterations: In addition to the new and abolished seats, the boundaries of 48 other electorates are subject to moderate to significant changes.
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Electorate Renaming: Nearly 20 electorates are proposed for renaming to better reflect their geographical locations and enhance voter recognition. Examples include McConnel reverting to Brisbane Central, Oodgeroo reverting to Cleveland, Maiwar reverting to Indooroopilly, and Cooper reverting to Ashgrove. This approach differs from the previous electoral review, which renamed 11 electorates in honor of notable deceased Australians.
Rationale for Changes
The commission stated that these proposed changes were "not made lightly," driven by a meticulous review of each seat.
The QRC's review examined every electorate to determine if its resident population was currently outside its electoral quota or projected to be so within the next seven years. The creation of new electorates in South East Queensland is specifically driven by rapid population growth in the region, while other changes address existing or anticipated electoral quota imbalances across the state.
Notional Political Impacts
The proposed boundary changes are anticipated to result in various notional shifts for political parties:
- Katter's Australian Party (KAP): The party faces the significant impact of the abolition of the Hill electorate, with its territory distributed among surrounding seats.
- Labor Party: The abolition of Stretton will see its voters redistributed. The Currumbin seat, currently held by Labor with a 0.6% margin, is notionally projected to become an LNP seat with a 5.4% margin. Beenleigh, replacing Macalister, would shift from a Labor margin of 1.9% to a notional LNP margin of 0.4%. Thuringowa and Mackay are projected to gain conservative semi-rural territory. Conversely, the loss of its southern end to Caboolture makes Labor notionally more competitive in Glass House, reducing the LNP margin from 10.2% to 5.7%.
- Greens: Inner-city seats where the Greens are competitive, such as Maiwar, Cooper, and South Brisbane, show minimal changes to their primary vote share, all within half a percentage point.
Official Statements and Timeline
KAP leader Robbie Katter commented on the Liberal National Party (LNP)'s submission, which advocated for the abolition of the Hill electorate, highlighting potential political motives. LNP state director Ben Riley observed that Labor appeared to benefit from the creation of new seats in areas considered their strongholds. Opposition leader Steven Miles indicated that Labor would meticulously analyze the draft boundaries and express any concerns they might have.
Objections to the proposed boundary changes can be submitted over the next month. The redistribution is expected to be finalized in June, with the new boundaries and districts taking effect for the 2028 state election.