American Confidence in Elections Declines Amidst Legislative Divides

A recent national poll indicates a decrease in American confidence regarding the fairness and accuracy of elections, with approximately two-thirds of respondents expressing confidence in their state or local governments to manage elections. The survey highlights divisions on proposed voting legislation and persistent concerns about voter fraud, misleading information, and voter suppression. Broad bipartisan agreement exists on the threat of AI-generated misinformation.

Election Confidence and Perceived Threats

Approximately two-thirds of Americans express confidence in their state or local governments to manage elections fairly and accurately. This figure represents a 10-percentage-point decrease from the month before the 2024 presidential election, marking the lowest confidence level recorded since the poll began in 2020. Confidence levels varied by political affiliation:

• Confidence among Democrats decreased by 16 percentage points.
• Confidence among independents decreased by 11 percentage points.
• Republicans' confidence saw a 3-percentage-point increase, which falls within the poll's margin of error.

Public Anxieties on Election Security

Public anxieties regarding election security are diverse, often shaped by political narratives:

• Voter fraud: One-third of Americans identify this as the single biggest threat, a view held by 57% of Republicans.
• Misleading information: 26% cite this as the biggest threat, a concern for approximately one-third of independents.
• Voter suppression: 24% indicate this as their primary concern, a view held by 41% of Democrats.

Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, suggested that these anxieties are largely shaped by political narratives.

Voter Access Versus Eligibility

Nearly 6 in 10 respondents prioritize ensuring everyone who wants to vote can do so, while 41% prioritize ensuring no ineligible person votes. This division has remained relatively stable since 2021.

A significant concern is that 58% of Americans worry about eligible voters potentially being turned away at polls—a 16-percentage-point increase since January 2020. This concern is notably higher among Democrats (nearly three-quarters) and younger voters (three-quarters of those under 30).

Proposed Voting Legislation: The SAVE America Act

The SAVE America Act, which passed the House of Representatives along party lines, is a stated legislative priority for former President Trump. A key component of the bill proposes requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.

Proof of Citizenship Requirement

Proponents claim this measure would prevent voter fraud. However, noncitizen voting in federal elections is illegal, and documented cases of noncitizen voter fraud are rare.

• Rick Hasen, director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA School of Law, noted only 30 possible cases documented nationwide in 2016.
• David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, stated that federal investigations have found minimal evidence of widespread fraud.

Experts warn that implementing a proof-of-citizenship requirement could pose significant challenges:

• A similar law in Kansas prevented 30,000 eligible citizens from registering to vote before being paused by a federal court.
• Tammy Patrick, CEO of The Election Center, detailed difficulties experienced in Arizona with a similar requirement, which took years to refine logistics.

Populations potentially most affected by new documentation requirements include older Americans, women with name changes, Indigenous people, individuals with disabilities, and young voters. Critics of the Act argue it could disenfranchise millions of eligible Americans lacking easy access to such documents.

Former President Trump has also expanded the proposed scope of the SAVE America Act to include a ban on mail-in ballots for most voters.

National Guard Deployment Proposal

Former President Trump has also proposed deploying National Guard troops to monitor polling places. A recent poll indicates that 46% of Americans support this idea, while 54% oppose it.

• Support is largely partisan, with approximately 75% of Republicans supporting the idea and roughly 75% of Democrats opposing it.

Federal law prohibits troops or armed personnel at voting locations, intended to ensure a safe and secure environment free from intimidation. However, state governors can legally deploy the National Guard to support elections, often for tasks such as cybersecurity.

Michael Morley, an election law expert and professor at Florida State University, suggested that current events might influence public opinion on such deployments. Former President Trump previously indicated a desire to deploy Guard members to seize election equipment in 2020, and some state and local voting officials have expressed concerns about such deployments after previous National Guard activations in American cities.

Broader Election Integrity Concerns

President Trump has repeatedly stated that Democrats plan to cheat in upcoming elections, a claim for which he has not provided evidence. He asserted during a State of the Union address that Democrats' policies are so ineffective that cheating is their only path to victory.

Paul Gronke, an election administration expert at Reed College, noted that political candidates have normalized casting doubt on election results, citing former President Trump as an example.

Views from Swing Districts

An NPR survey across two swing congressional districts in Pennsylvania found varied views among Republican voters:

• Most Republicans interviewed disagreed with Trump's claims, indicating that Democrats could win elections fairly and dismissing widespread voter fraud. Richard Cline, a preacher from Harrisburg, stated, "It's too hard to really pull something off that would be considered fraud."
• However, some Republicans expressed belief in election irregularities, with one poll worker reporting suspicions of non-citizens voting without proof.
• The survey also showed that most Republicans do not rely solely on Trump for information regarding election fairness, consulting local and state election officials, local TV news, and family members.
• Younger Republicans, in particular, consider 2020 fraud claims not a primary discussion topic.

Democrats interviewed by NPR suggested Trump's accusations serve as a justification for potential intervention in elections if Republicans face losses. Thomas Fink, vice president of the Camp Hill Borough Council, characterized the claims as "a lie and a pretext for election interference."

The White House responded by stating the president seeks full confidence in election administration, advocating for photo identification requirements for voting and accurate voter rolls free of non-citizens.

Bipartisan Agreement on AI Misinformation

There is significant bipartisan agreement on the threat of AI-generated misinformation. Eighty-five percent of Americans believe AI-generated political content will likely spread misinformation about the November elections, including 86% of Democrats, 81% of Republicans, and 88% of independents.

Tammy Patrick urged voters to focus on local election administration, describing elections as transparent and run by professionals and volunteers using tested and audited equipment. Concerns were also raised about the potential erosion of "loser's consent," a foundational principle of democratic transitions.

Poll Methodology

The PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll was conducted from March 2-4, 2026, surveying 1,591 U.S. adults by phone, text, and online. The poll has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points for all adults and 3.0 percentage points for 1,392 registered voters.