The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts that a potentially strong El Niño weather pattern is likely to emerge this summer and persist through the end of the year. Forecasters estimate a 62% chance of El Niño developing between June and August.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing vast volumes of warm ocean water to shift from the Eastern Pacific toward the Americas.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, noted that this event could be significant in 2026 and potentially into 2027.
Global Temperature Impacts
An active El Niño typically drives up average global temperatures. The warmest years on record generally coincide with El Niño periods due to the Eastern Pacific becoming warmer than usual. Swain explained that El Niño releases heat from deeper ocean layers.
The years 2023 and 2024 experienced a prolonged El Niño pattern that contributed to record-breaking global temperatures. 2023 set a record for the hottest year, which was subsequently surpassed by temperatures in 2024.
Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, indicated that a strong El Niño would likely boost temperatures in 2026 and could position 2027 to be the warmest year on record after 2024.
El Niño and Human-Caused Warming
El Niño is a natural cyclic fluctuation, but human-caused global warming from the combustion of fossil fuels is the primary driver of the planet's overall warming trend. Even without El Niño, the previous year was among the top three hottest years on record.
Regional Weather Pattern Effects
El Niño affects regional weather patterns globally:
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The Southern United States often receives increased rainfall and experiences cooler temperatures, which can aid in drought mitigation and reduce wildfire activity. However, a new analysis by the National Integrated Drought Information System suggests that one year of wetter weather may not fully replenish reservoirs in the severely drought-stricken Southwest.
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In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño typically reduces the likelihood of hurricane formation, leading to less severe hurricane seasons. This protection is limited, as a single major storm can cause catastrophic damage, and rising Atlantic temperatures due to climate change provide more energy for storms that do form.
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El Niño does not temper storms that form in the Pacific.
Swain emphasized that El Niño's regional patterns are its most dangerous effects, potentially leading to more heat waves, tangibly warmer temperatures, increased energy for storms, heavier downpours, more intensive droughts, and more extreme wildfires.