Forecast: Strong "Super" El Niño Likely by Mid-2026, Poised to Shatter Global Temperature Records
Multiple meteorological agencies, including NOAA and the WMO, have forecast the development of an El Niño event beginning in mid-2026, with a high probability of persistence through the winter and potential for strong to very strong intensity.
The emerging El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is predicted to develop in the coming months. Forecasts indicate a significant likelihood that it will become a strong or "super" El Niño event, ranking among the largest in the historical record since 1950. Scientists project that this event could contribute to record-breaking global temperatures and influence regional weather patterns worldwide, including altered rainfall, drought, and hurricane activity.
Forecast Timeline and Strength
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center:
- There is a 62-82% chance of El Niño conditions developing by July 2026.
- A 96% chance of the event persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
- Forecasters estimate a 63-67% probability that the event will become "strong" (sea surface temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above average).
- A 33-37% chance of it reaching "super" El Niño status (temperatures exceeding 2.0°C above average).
The WMO estimates a "near or above 90 percent" likelihood of El Niño developing by November 2026. The event is expected to intensify over subsequent months, peaking in the late fall or early winter.
Mechanism and Background
El Niño is a natural climate cycle involving the weakening of Pacific trade winds, which allows warm water to shift from the Western Pacific toward the Americas. This process releases heat stored in deeper ocean layers into the atmosphere. The phenomenon is measured by the increase in sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the equatorial Pacific.
Previous "super" El Niño events occurred in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. Scientists note that the current event is developing against a background climate that is already warmer than average due to long-term warming trends.
Global Temperature Projections
"A strong El Niño increases the probability of record-breaking global average temperatures."
Multiple scientists have stated this dynamic clearly. Some researchers project that 2026 or 2027 could become the warmest year on record, surpassing 2024. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth indicated that a strong El Niño could position 2027 to be the warmest year on record.
Scientists distinguish between the natural El Niño cycle and the long-term warming trend caused by human activity. Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania noted that El Niño temporarily boosts global temperatures but oscillates with its counterpart, La Niña, and that the main driver of long-term warming is fossil fuel use.
Regional Weather Impacts
Atlantic Ocean: El Niño typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin due to stronger upper-level winds.
Pacific Ocean: Hurricane activity is expected to increase in the central and eastern Pacific, potentially threatening Hawaii and the U.S. Southwest.
United States:
- The southern U.S. is likely to experience increased rainfall and cooler temperatures.
- The northern U.S., western Canada, and Alaska are expected to see warmer-than-average winter conditions.
- The Pacific Northwest tends to be drier during El Niño.
Asia: Reduced summer monsoon rainfall is forecast for India and Southeast Asia, raising concerns about crop yields and food prices. Australia and Indonesia are considered prone to drought, heatwaves, and increased wildfire risk.
South America: Western South America (including Peru) may experience heavy rainfall and flooding. Parts of the Amazon could face exacerbated drought conditions.
Africa: The Horn of Africa is expected to transition from drought to heavy rainfall. Southeast Africa may face drought during the December-February period.
Caribbean: Drier conditions are likely.
Compounding Factors
The UN World Food Program reported that 318 million people are at risk of acute hunger. Analysts have noted that a strong El Niño could compound existing food security challenges. Additionally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted supplies of oil, gas, and urea (used for fertilizer), which could further affect food production.
Statements from Officials and Scientists
Michelle L'Heureux, a scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, stated that a stronger El Niño is more likely if atmospheric changes synchronize with ocean temperature rises. She cautioned that stronger events do not ensure strong impacts but make certain outcomes more likely.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that El Niño conditions "will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world" and called for climate action.
Dr. James Hansen and colleagues stated that ocean temperature data indicates an El Niño in 2026-27 is likely.
Gabriel Vecchi of Princeton University noted that large El Niños tend to last longer.
Uncertainty
Forecasters note substantial uncertainty regarding the peak strength of the event. A weaker outcome remains possible. Officials emphasize that individual El Niños do not precisely follow historical patterns and that surprises are expected.