The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist organization in Yemen, has announced a two-year transitional period aimed at achieving independence for southern Yemen. This declaration follows recent military advancements and clashes involving forces supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the region. The developments highlight deepening divisions between key regional actors who were once allied in Yemen's civil conflict, occurring amidst an ongoing humanitarian crisis.
Background to the Conflict
Yemen's civil war began in 2014 when the Iran-backed Houthi movement gained control of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. In 2015, a coalition of Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, intervened militarily to restore the internationally recognized government. While a ceasefire has largely de-escalated conflict with the Houthis in recent years, the anti-Houthi alliance has experienced internal divisions.
The internationally recognized government is represented by the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in 2022. The Southern Transitional Council (STC), formed in 2017 with UAE support, is a formal component of the PLC but advocates for the re-establishment of an independent southern Yemeni state. Yemen was historically divided into North and South from 1967 to 1990.
Recent Escalation and Military Engagements
In early December, the STC initiated a military offensive in eastern Yemen, rapidly gaining control of territories from government forces. These advances included the oil-rich Hadramawt province, which borders Saudi Arabia, and the neighboring Mahra province. The STC stated its objective was to restore stability in the south. Rashad al-Alimi, head of the PLC, denounced these actions as a "rebellion," asserting that the separatist push threatened Yemen's fragmentation.
Tensions escalated further with air strikes conducted by the Saudi-led coalition. On December 3, strikes targeted the southern port of Mukalla. The coalition accused the UAE of supplying military equipment to separatists via two ships. The UAE foreign ministry denied these allegations, stating that the shipment contained no weapons and that the vehicles were intended for Emirati forces. Following these strikes, Yemen's Presidential Council announced the cancellation of a joint defense treaty with the UAE and ordered all Emirati forces to depart within 24 hours. The Saudi foreign ministry supported this demand, accusing the UAE of influencing the STC's eastern offensive, which had approached Saudi Arabia's borders, and emphasized Saudi national security concerns.
An STC official reported that seven individuals died in a December 6 air strike on an STC military camp in Hadramawt. Another STC military official reported 20 fatalities from coalition air raids targeting two military bases, an airport, and other locations on a Friday around the same period.
International and Diplomatic Responses
The UAE confirmed the complete departure of its remaining personnel from Yemen following these events, having largely withdrawn its troops in 2019. The UAE foreign ministry reiterated its commitment to dialogue, de-escalation, and internationally supported processes for peace.
In response to the evolving situation, PLC head Rashad al-Alimi requested that Saudi Arabia host a forum for all factions in southern Yemen to de-escalate tensions. The Saudi foreign ministry welcomed this request, urging factions, including the STC, to "formulate a comprehensive vision for fair solutions to the southern cause."
The United States, European Union, and United Nations have issued calls for calm, expressing concern that the recent developments could exacerbate existing divisions in Yemen.
Southern Independence Plan and Territorial Control
The STC President, Aidaros Alzubidi, outlined a two-year transitional phase for independence, involving dialogue with northern Yemen (controlled by Houthis) and culminating in a referendum on independence. Mr. Alzubidi stated that the group would declare independence "immediately" if dialogue efforts are not initiated or if southern Yemen faces further military aggression. The proposed independent entity would be named "South Arabia."
Following its territorial gains, the STC agreed to the deployment of Saudi-backed National Shield government forces into Hadramawt and al-Mahra provinces. The STC announced an operation to integrate these forces, stating an intention to undertake responsibilities previously assigned to STC armed forces and to safeguard recent advancements against the Houthis. However, the Saudi government had previously urged the STC to withdraw from these territories, particularly those adjacent to its southern border, citing national security considerations. A source close to the Saudi government indicated that the redeployment was considered insufficient and that Riyadh's security concerns would necessitate a complete STC withdrawal.
The STC currently controls significant portions of pre-1990 South Yemen, including the strategic port city of Aden, Yemen's primary commercial hub, and the island of Socotra. This effectively constitutes about half of Yemen's total territory. The Houthis maintain control over approximately one-third of Yemeni territory, primarily encompassing the populous northern and western regions, including Sanaa, while the Saudi-backed Yemeni government controls less than 15%.
Divergent Interests of Regional Powers
The recent confrontations highlight a divergence in policy between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who were once unified against the Houthis.
- Saudi Arabia continues to support a unified Yemeni government and has expressed national security concerns regarding the STC's territorial advances near its borders. Hadhramaut province contains Yemen's largest oil fields, and Al-Mahra has been identified as a potential route for new oil pipelines, which could facilitate Saudi oil exports by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi officials have stated that the UAE's involvement in Yemen and support for non-state actors is undermining its national security.
- The UAE has supported the STC, a strategy perceived by observers as securing access to key seaports and challenging an Islamist political party within the Yemeni government. The UAE views southern Yemen as strategically important due to its position on key maritime trade routes and its proximity to the Horn of Africa, as well as its counter-extremism efforts. Analysts note that even with a physical withdrawal, the UAE's influence on STC forces might persist, as its presence has largely relied on special forces and proxy networks since 2019.
Analysts generally view these escalations as reflecting fundamental disagreements between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi regarding Yemen's future political structure and regional influence.
Humanitarian Situation
The humanitarian situation in Yemen remains critical. Over 19 million people require assistance, and the conflict has severely impacted the economy, contributing to one of the world's most severe hunger crises. A 2021 UN estimate attributed 377,000 deaths to the conflict and its effects on hunger and healthcare, including 259,000 children under the age of five.