Kazakhstan Holds Referendum on New Constitution Amidst Power Consolidation Concerns

Voters in Kazakhstan participated in a referendum on a new constitution on Sunday. The proposed changes are expected to strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s authority within the Central Asian nation.

Key Proposed Constitutional Changes

The new constitutional proposal outlines significant shifts in governance:

• It includes merging the Kazakhstani parliament’s two chambers into a single body.
• It would also grant the president the power to appoint key government officials, including restoring the post of vice president, subject to parliamentary approval.

Mario Bikarski, a senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, suggests that the transition to a single-chamber parliament might not necessarily strengthen democracy, especially given the proposed expansion of presidential powers. Bikarski noted public demand for greater political accountability, which these reforms might not address.

If the changes are approved, a new body called the People’s Council would be established alongside parliament. Its members would be entirely appointed by the president, and it would have the authority to initiate legislation and referendums.

Potential for Extended Presidential Power

This is the second constitutional amendment initiative by Tokayev in four years. Analysts suggest these changes could potentially allow him to retain power beyond his current term. Tokayev, 72, is presently limited to a single seven-year term expiring in 2029.

Analysts like Temur Umarov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center believe Tokayev could use the referendum to reset presidential term limits, providing a pathway for re-election. Similar actions have been observed in other former Soviet republics, where leaders have used constitutional revisions to alter term limits.

Shift Towards Traditionalism

The proposed constitution also specifies that marriage will be defined as a union between a man and a woman. Analysts interpret this provision as a follow-up to a law banning the “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations, reflecting a trend towards “traditionalism” in the country's political direction.

President Tokayev's Justification

President Tokayev has characterized these constitutional changes as a response to the need for swift decision-making in a volatile global environment. He stated that the step is crucial due to the unstable geopolitical situation and increasing threats to national security.

Opposition's Limited Influence

Kazakhstan's opposition is not represented in government structures and has reportedly had limited opportunity to influence public sentiment since the referendum's announcement. Umarov highlighted that while there are opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists, they are primarily trying to express discontent through protests.

Economic Challenges and Risk of Unrest

The referendum takes place during a period of economic difficulty for Kazakhstan, with inflation reaching 11.7% in February and public discontent over tax increases.

Analysts, including Bikarski, suggest that economic issues could trigger renewed unrest, similar to the nationwide protests in 2022 over fuel price hikes, which resulted in fatalities. Tokayev is seen as consolidating power to prevent a recurrence of such events, with Kazakhstan identified as a high-risk country for civil unrest.