Venezuelan opposition leader MarĂa Corina Machado is scheduled to accept the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo. This event occurs amidst an ongoing political situation in Venezuela, where Machado has stated that elections are unlikely to result in the removal of President Nicolás Maduro's government. She has expressed support for President Trump's diplomatic and military actions in the Caribbean.
David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University, noted that the perception of the Nobel Peace Prize typically aligns with working through peaceful means, a perspective he suggests may not fully align with Machado's current strategies.
Machado, a 58-year-old right-wing politician, has been a prominent opponent of Venezuela's government for two decades. Unlike many opposition figures who have left the country, she has remained in Venezuela as a vocal critic of the Maduro administration.
Polls suggested Machado would win the July 2024 presidential election; however, her candidacy was banned by the government. Following this, she led a campaign encouraging Venezuelans to vote for substitute candidate Edmundo González, a retired diplomat. Opposition-collected voter tally sheets indicated that González secured a significant victory over Maduro.
Daniel Navarro, a Venezuelan exile involved in organizing pro-Machado events, affirmed that the opposition engaged within democratic rules and achieved an electoral win, aiming for a peaceful transfer of power.
Despite the reported election results, President Maduro remained in office and initiated a crackdown on the opposition. This led to González's departure to Spain. Machado has continued to provide interviews, rally supporters, and condemn the Maduro regime's human rights record, press censorship, and detention of political prisoners from within Venezuela.
Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October for "her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy," becoming the first Venezuelan recipient. She acknowledged the prize as a recognition of all Venezuelans' efforts for freedom and democracy.
Smilde characterized Machado's selection as "a very controversial pick," citing instances where she has reportedly acted against negotiations for a peaceful resolution. He also noted her calls for voters to boycott elections, which he argues allowed pro-regime politicians to secure governmental positions. In May, she criticized other opposition politicians as "traitors" for participating in gubernatorial and legislative elections.
Machado supports U.S. military operations targeting alleged drug smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, which have reportedly resulted in casualties among Venezuelans. She has also advocated for American military intervention to remove Maduro. When asked about potential U.S. troop involvement to restore democracy, she stated, "You cannot have peace without freedom, and you cannot have freedom without strength."
According to Vladimir Villegas, a radio host in Caracas, Machado's advocacy for U.S. military intervention may inadvertently strengthen the Maduro regime by enabling it to foster nationalist sentiment against foreign interference. Opposition lawmaker Henrique Capriles, who favors negotiations, described the Venezuelan political landscape as an "all-or-nothing fight" between Maduro and Machado.
Smilde cautioned that Machado's reliance on U.S. intervention could backfire if military action does not materialize, referencing the previous opposition leader Juan GuaidĂł, whose popularity declined after similar unfulfilled promises of regime change.
Conversely, many Venezuelans support Machado's hardline approach, believing that the Maduro government manipulates elections, uses military force against democratic opposition, and employs negotiations to gain time. Ana Karina GarcĂa, a Venezuelan activist in Colombia, expressed that an external intervention might be the only remaining option to regain liberty in Venezuela.
Machado's continued presence in Venezuela is uncertain. While the Nobel Institute confirmed her participation in the ceremony, a scheduled press conference was postponed, and details of her arrival were not provided by her team. Her family and several South American presidents are in Oslo, but Machado's precise location remains undisclosed. If she leaves Venezuela, her return may be prevented by the regime.