Global Democracy Declines to Cold War Levels, V-Dem Report Warns
New research indicates that the health of global democracy has regressed to levels observed during the Cold War era, specifically to 1978 for the average global citizen. The 10th edition of the V-Dem report reveals that democracy levels in Western Europe and North America are at their lowest in over 50 years, primarily due to the United States becoming more autocratic. The report classifies the U.S. as an “electoral democracy” rather than a liberal democracy.
Measuring Democracy
The V-Dem report, compiled by researchers at the University of Gothenburg’s V-Dem Institute in Sweden, provides a comprehensive framework for understanding democratic health.
V-Dem defines democracy using five core principles: electoral, liberal, deliberative, participatory, and egalitarian.
These principles are measured across more than 600 attributes annually by approximately 4,200 scholars and experts, covering 202 countries and territories from 1789 onward. This meticulous data collection forms the world’s largest dataset on democracies, containing over 32 million data points.
The report categorizes countries into four distinct types of governance:
- Liberal democracies
- Electoral democracies
- Electoral autocracies
- Closed autocracies
Global Findings
The latest findings paint a stark picture of the current global democratic landscape.
Only 7% of the global population resides in liberal democracies. These nations are characterized by free and fair multiparty elections, freedom of expression and association, judicial and legislative constraints on the executive, and strong protections for civil liberties and equality before the law. Australia is identified as one of these nations.
Conversely, 74% of the world’s population, or six billion people, live under autocracies, where power is concentrated in a single person. This includes countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, India, and China. The remaining 19% live in systems with multiparty elections but compromised checks and balances and limited protections for civil liberties.
Democratic backsliding, also termed autocratization, affects several of Australia’s key allies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and various European Union member states.
Australia's Position
Australia maintains its 12th position globally in the liberal democracy index, a ranking unchanged from previous years. However, the report indicates a gradual decline in Australia's democratic health, a trend consistent with broader global patterns.
When assessed for egalitarianism, Australia ranks 26th, reflecting a growing disparity between economic strata within the nation. Trust in major political parties has declined, and the primary vote for the two main parties has decreased, creating opportunities for new political forces to emerge.
The Third Wave of Autocratization
The past 25 years mark the third wave of autocratization in modern history. Unlike previous waves characterized by overt military coups, this current wave is described as stealthy, operating behind a legal facade to gradually erode democratic institutions.
Researchers highlight the substantial benefits associated with democratisation:
- Higher sustained GDP per capita growth
- Improved social protection
- Better health outcomes
- Lower infant mortality
- Increased access to safe water and electricity
- Greater gender equality
Additionally, democracies tend to avoid wars with each other and exhibit lower risks of conflict and instability compared to autocracies.
However, democracy does not generally lead to lower levels of economic inequality. This can harm citizens’ health, undermine social cohesion, and contribute to perceptions of societal breakdown, potentially fostering a desire for strong leadership.
Many recent strongman leaders were initially elected through open and fair elections before they began to dismantle the very democratic institutions that facilitated their rise to power.
Active management and diligent care for democratic values are crucial for their preservation. As global democratic health declines, Australia faces the significant challenge of not only maintaining but also actively improving its liberal democracy.