Discussions are underway within the Republican Party regarding the future leadership and direction of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. During a cabinet meeting two weeks prior, President Donald Trump indicated that he would not seek the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, suggesting the next candidate might be among his current advisors. These statements, alongside observed internal divisions, point to ongoing competition to define and succeed the movement. Recent local elections have shown shifts in voter support, and a comprehensive survey by the conservative Manhattan Institute has detailed demographic changes within the Republican base, highlighting potential challenges for the coalition's unity.
Internal Dynamics and 2028 Succession Outlook
US President Donald Trump recently stated that the 2028 Republican presidential nominee would likely emerge from individuals present at a cabinet meeting, noting that it would not be him. This statement, made despite "four more years" chants at a rally, signals a developing succession landscape within the MAGA movement.
In local elections held last month, the Republican Party experienced a decrease in support among minority and working-class voters. Reports have also indicated policy disagreements among members of Trump's team. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has publicly criticized the president, alleging a disconnect from some American voters. Media outlets, including The Washington Post, have also published reports questioning potential disengagement from the MAGA base.
Media reports had speculated about the impact of Trump's age on his pace, which Trump publicly characterized as "seditious." A YouGov survey earlier this month indicated Trump's net approval rating at -14, compared to +6 when he reassumed office in January. Reported concerns regarding the economy and the expansion of presidential power also accompanied this shift.
Prospective Successors
Several individuals within Trump's administration and orbit are considered potential candidates for future Republican leadership:
- Vice-President JD Vance: Positioned directly across from the president during the cabinet meeting, Vance is widely viewed as a leading contender. He is reportedly favored by Trump's sons and some tech sector figures and is associated with efforts to establish an ideological foundation for Trumpism.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Located to the president's immediate right, the former Florida senator has aligned his positions with Trump's "America First" foreign policy, particularly regarding immigration and Russia. He is recognized as an influential traditional Republican figure within the current party.
- Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr: Seated two places from Rubio, Kennedy, who transitioned from Democrat to Independent and then to the Republican Party, advocates for a "Make America Healthy Again" agenda and is known for his vaccine skepticism.
- Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem: Positioned at the corner of the table, the former South Dakota governor is noted for advocating for immigration enforcement, including proposals for broader travel bans.
These individuals represent diverse segments within the Trump-aligned coalition. Maintaining unity among their respective supporters could present a substantial challenge for any successor.
Evolution of the Republican Coalition
The next leader of the Republican Party may not necessarily emerge from Trump's immediate inner circle, mirroring Trump's own rise as a political outsider. Former Republican Congressman Rodney Davis of Illinois noted that the party's composition differs significantly from the Ronald Reagan era, stating that the next Republican leader will need to differentiate themselves from Trump while remaining aligned with his base.
Laura K. Field, author of Furious Minds: The Making of the Maga New Right, describes Reagan's coalition as a fusion of free-market economics, cultural conservatism, anti-communism, and international foreign affairs. In contrast, Trump's party, as described by adviser Michael Anton in 2016, emphasizes secure borders, economic nationalism, and an America-First foreign policy.
Internal Divisions and Voter Demographics
A recent survey by the conservative Manhattan Institute analyzed Republican voters, identifying two primary groups within Trump's coalition:
- "Core Republicans" (65%): Individuals who have consistently supported party nominees since at least 2016.
- "New Entrant Republicans" (29%): Generally younger and more diverse, these voters often hold views that diverge from traditional conservative orthodoxy. They tend to have more left-leaning economic perspectives, are often more liberal on immigration and social issues, and may exhibit differing views on international relations, including potentially pro-China or critical views of Israel.
The survey indicated that "new entrant Republicans" showed lower support for some potential Trump successors compared to "core Republicans," with Rubio receiving 50% positive views among new entrants versus 70% among core Republicans, and Vance receiving 50% positive versus 80%. Additionally, over half of new entrants believe political violence is "sometimes justified," a significantly higher percentage than the 20% among core Republicans. They were also found to be more tolerant of certain controversial speech and prone to conspiratorial thinking.
Jesse Arm, Vice-President of External Affairs at the Manhattan Institute, stated that the party's future agenda would primarily be set by "normie Republicans," emphasizing that the core of the party remains traditional Republicans.
These internal divides have manifested in several ways:
- Trump-Greene Dispute: This disagreement began with Representative Greene's advocacy for the release of Jeffrey Epstein files and broadened into critiques of Trump's Middle East policy and perceived failures on cost-of-living and healthcare issues for low-income American voters.
- Economic Policy Differences: Billionaire Elon Musk, an early Trump supporter, publicly criticized some of the administration's tariffs and government spending policies.
- Controversy over Nick Fuentes: A debate within conservative ranks regarding the inclusion of far-right commentator Nick Fuentes, a Holocaust denier, has caused friction, affecting organizations like the Heritage Foundation and dividing prominent right-wing commentators. The president has largely avoided taking a public stance on this issue.
Legislative and Electoral Challenges
In Congress, signs of friction with the president's agenda are apparent. The House of Representatives passed a measure mandating the release of the Epstein files despite White House lobbying. Furthermore, Senate Republicans have not abandoned the filibuster, which has allowed Democrats to impede some of Trump's legislative agenda.
Recent election results have shown Democratic gains in state and local races. Democrats secured governorships in Virginia and New Jersey last month. In dozens of special elections for state and local seats over the past year, Democrats have, on average, improved their margins by approximately 13% compared to similar races in the previous November's national elections. These considerations will be relevant for Republicans ahead of the 2026 mid-term congressional elections, raising concerns for some that, without Trump at the top of the ticket, their coalition may face challenges in achieving consistent electoral victories.
The Enduring Nature of Trumpism
Despite electoral challenges, the changes enacted by the MAGA movement within the Republican Party are viewed as fundamental and lasting. Trumpism is described as building upon populist strains in American politics that predate Trump, such as Barry Goldwater's 1964 presidential campaign and the Tea Party movement. Laura K. Field posits that the Trump movement is firmly established, and a return to the "old Republican establishment" is unlikely, asserting that the traditional Republican order is no longer dominant.