Understanding Islamic State's Continued Influence\n\nThe Islamic State (ISIS) previously held extensive territory in Iraq and Syria, conducting various attacks. The group was declared defeated by the U.S. in 2019. At its peak, ISIS had an estimated 40,000 foreign fighters from 120 countries, according to the Wilson Center. The ISIS "caliphate," which governed millions across parts of Iraq and Syria, collapsed after years of U.S.-led operations aimed at dismantling its leadership and reclaiming its territory.\n\n## Recent Incidents and Expert Analysis\n\nRecent attacks have been linked by officials to inspiration from ISIS. Australian federal police commissioner Krissy Barrett stated that a mass shooting in Sydney's Bondi Beach was "a terrorist attack inspired by Islamic State." The individuals involved reportedly traveled to Davao, Philippines, before the attack. An attack near Palmyra, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of three Americans, including two U.S. service members, was attributed to ISIS by former President Trump; however, the group did not claim responsibility. In January, the FBI indicated that an assailant in a vehicle attack in New Orleans, which killed 14 people, was inspired by ISIS.\n\nAccording to Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, ISIS has maintained a presence since the collapse of its territorial control, characterized by a more dispersed leadership. The Pentagon estimated that 2,500 ISIS fighters remained in Syria and Iraq last year. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported destroying 15 sites containing ISIS weapons caches in Syria last month, noting that the group's conventional threat has been degraded, and its fighters are dispersed.\n\n## Ideology and Propaganda Strategies\n\nThe Congressional Research Service defines the Islamic State's ideology as a "uniquely hardline version of violent jihadist-Salafism," involving the use of violence to establish what it views as an ideal Islamic society. Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, states that ISIS continues to disseminate propaganda through social media as a key recruitment strategy. This strategy relies on finding a receptive audience for its message. The conflict in Gaza has contributed to the discourse fueling such propaganda.\n\n## Regional Context and Trends\n\nSidney Jones, an adjunct professor at New York University and consultant to the U.N. Office of Counter-Terrorism, noted that militant groups linked to the Islamic State have faced challenges in reestablishing themselves in the Philippines. This context makes the reported link between the Bondi Beach assailants and ISIS-affiliated groups in Mindanao a notable development. U.S.-backed Philippine forces conducted a five-month campaign in 2017 against militant groups affiliated with the Islamic State in Marawi and have continued operations against ISIS remnants across Mindanao. Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, indicated that fully operational terrorist training camps are unlikely in the region, with groups typically operating as small cells.\n\nByman further states that the number of attacks and attempted plots inspired by the Islamic State are declining over time, citing arrests made by agencies such as the FBI.