A new report from global consulting firm RSM forecasts a significant shift in Brisbane's urban landscape, predicting a decline in detached housing and a move towards denser, mixed-use neighborhoods. This projection contrasts with current population data showing the highest growth in outer suburban areas, highlighting two concurrent development trends shaping the city ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
RSM Report: Projected Shift Towards Higher Density
The "RSM 2026 Leading Cities – Brisbane" report, scheduled for release this week, analyzes Brisbane's evolution in response to population growth and the 2032 Games. Key findings include:
- Housing Mix Change: The proportion of detached housing in the region is projected to decrease from 60% to 46% over the next two decades.
- Urban Form: The report describes a transition towards a more contained urban model, with an increase in apartment blocks, village-style shops, and professional services within neighborhoods.
- Policy Support: The Brisbane City Council has endorsed plans for increased density in Wynnum and proposed high-rise developments in Indooroopilly, Carindale, and Nundah.
"This trend appeals to younger demographics and those seeking lower maintenance lifestyles." — Steve Healey, RSM Brisbane Managing Partner
The report also anticipates economic growth creating more opportunities for a 24-hour economy and enhanced use of the Brisbane River for recreation.
Current Population Data: Outer Suburbs Lead Growth
Separate data from KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley indicates that in 2025, Brisbane gained 11,000 interstate migrants, while Sydney lost 33,000 and Melbourne lost 8,500. Approximately one-third of migrants to Brisbane came from Sydney. Interstate migration has softened as Brisbane house prices have risen.
Fastest-growing suburbs include:
- Ripley Valley (gains 8 residents per day)
- Morayfield, Greenbank, Chambers Flat, Yarrabilba, Flagstone
Suburbs with stagnant or declining populations include inner- and middle-ring suburbs, attributed to an ageing population and high house prices.
"Housing affordability is squeezing young families out of affluent areas, and Queensland's lifestyle prioritizing open space drives growth on the fringe." — Terry Rawnsley, KPMG
Housing and Cost Factors:
- Median house prices in March: Sydney $1.79 million, Brisbane $1.21 million, Ripley $849,500.
- Building costs on the outskirts are approximately half those of medium- or high-density housing.
- Residents are moving from Brisbane's southern suburbs to Ipswich (1,000+) and Logan (2,046).
- Brisbane's fertility rate fell 19% over the past decade to 1.44 births per woman.
Expert Perspectives on Development
- Ross Elliott (Suburban Futures director) supported the focus on local amenities, stating it will foster a stronger sense of local community.
- Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner highlighted ongoing suburban renewal efforts, citing South Bank and New Farm as examples of successful transformation aiming to increase housing, dining, and recreation.
- Jared Cassidy (Brisbane City Council Labor opposition leader) emphasized the need for a strong vision for liveable communities beyond increasing height limits, suggesting modern suburban renewal should prioritize public spaces to compensate for reduced private backyards.
- Associate Professor Stephanie Wyeth (University of Queensland) noted that master-planned communities lack shade, public transport, and amenities like pools, requiring future retrofitting for walkability and climate resilience.
- James Tuma (Urbis) identified the 2032 Games as a catalyst for investment in transport, housing, and public spaces.
Background
Brisbane's population is predicted to reach 4 million within 20 years, up from approximately 2.8 million.