Climate Crisis Threatens Global Food Security, Widening Global Divides

Research from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) indicates that 24 countries could face critical food insecurity if global temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius. The analysis suggests that the climate crisis will disproportionately affect food systems in lower-income nations, widening the gap between the most and least vulnerable countries.

Unequal Impacts: A Sevenfold Disparity

Food systems in low-income countries are projected to deteriorate seven times faster than those in wealthy nations. Ritu Bharadwaj, an IIED researcher and author of the study, stated that nations already experiencing poverty, fragility, and limited social safety nets are expected to see the most rapid decline in their food systems.

"Nearly 59% of the world's population currently resides in countries with below-average food security, a disparity that climate change is likely to intensify."

Preventing Deterioration: Key Strategies

Bharadwaj proposed that this trend can be prevented by reinforcing social protection systems capable of rapid responses to climate shocks, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and enhancing water and soil management. She further explained that global food systems are interconnected, meaning climate shocks in a major producing region can lead to price volatility across global supply chains, affecting even high-income countries.

The IIED Food Security Index: Measuring Vulnerability

The IIED developed a Food Security Index for 162 countries, which measures the systemic vulnerability of a country's food system and forecasts the impact of climate breakdown under 1.5C, 2C, and 4C warming scenarios above preindustrial levels. The index evaluates the climate crisis's effects on four key pillars of food systems: availability, accessibility, utilization, and sustainability.

Sustainability and utilization were identified as the most climate-sensitive pillars. This indicates that initial signs of climate damage would appear in water, sanitation, and health systems, potentially causing malnutrition even if food is physically present. An increase in climate risk is also associated with reduced food access due to rising prices and market disruptions.

Stark Projections Under a 2°C Warming Scenario

Under a 2C heating scenario, countries like Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti, and Mozambique are projected to be among the worst-affected, with food insecurity increasing by over 30%. In contrast, high-income countries would experience an average increase of 3%.

Across low-income countries, food insecurity is projected to increase by 22% on average under the 2C scenario. This disparity is particularly striking given that low-income countries are responsible for just 1% of global emissions, while high- and upper-middle-income nations contribute over 80%.

Global Instability and Interconnectedness

Bharadwaj noted that while high-income countries may experience significant agricultural shocks, they possess the financial resources to address domestic crop failures through global markets. However, the wider implications are severe.

A British intelligence report on national security threats from the climate crisis warned that systemic collapse in fragile and conflict-affected states could result in global instability, state collapse, and forced migration.