Moderate Coffee Consumption Linked to Lower Heart Failure Risk

A recent systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that moderate daily coffee consumption may be associated with a lower risk of developing heart failure (HF). The study, published in the Journal of Health, Population, and Nutrition, analyzed data from over 650,000 participants across seven prospective cohorts.

Key Findings

• Drinking two to four cups of coffee daily was associated with a modest reduction in heart failure risk, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.93.
• The lowest estimated risk was observed at one to two cups per day (HR, 0.88).
• Protective effects diminished at higher intake levels, particularly beyond six cups daily.
• Both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee showed similar associations, indicating that compounds other than caffeine, such as chlorogenic acids and polyphenols, might contribute to the benefits.

Methodology

Researchers conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies published between January 2012 and October 2025. The analysis included 13 studies with seven independent cohorts, totaling 20,646 incident HF cases among 656,666 individuals. Heart failure outcomes were ascertained using patient health records or hospital data, accounting for confounders.

Evidence Strength and Implications

The overall evidence certainty was rated as low due to the observational nature of the data, meaning the results show an association rather than direct proof of prevention.

No publication bias was found, and sensitivity analyses confirmed the stability of the results.

The findings suggest that moderate coffee intake, including decaffeinated varieties, can be compatible with a heart-healthy dietary pattern. It is not presented as a standalone strategy to reduce HF risk. Further large-scale, well-controlled studies are needed to better define coffee types, brewing methods, and explore underlying mechanisms.