Widespread protests have continued across Iran, initially stemming from economic grievances related to currency depreciation and rising prices, before expanding to include political demands. Reports on fatalities have varied across different sources. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has distinguished between "protesters" and "rioters," while President Masoud Pezeshkian's government has acknowledged economic challenges and expressed a willingness to negotiate. Internationally, U.S. President Donald Trump has voiced support for the protesters, leading to responses from Iranian officials and fluctuations in global oil prices.
Unrest Across Iran: Economic Roots, Political Demands
Protests began approximately one to two weeks ago, with shopkeepers striking over economic concerns. These demonstrations have since expanded across Iran, occurring in over 280 locations across 27 of Iran's 31 provinces, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). Participants have proceeded despite government warnings and enforcement actions. While rooted in economic issues, protesters have also reportedly chanted against Iran's theocratic system.
Iran's economy has faced significant challenges, particularly in the months following a June conflict with Israel and related international sanctions. The rial currency has experienced substantial depreciation. In December, the rial traded at 1.4 million to the U.S. dollar, and on Tuesday, it reached a new low of 1.46 million to $1. Prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the rial traded at approximately 70 to $1, and in 2015, it was 32,000 rials to $1.
The Iranian Central Bank recently discontinued a subsidized dollar-rial exchange rate for most goods, maintaining it only for medicine and wheat. This change, which previously provided a preferential rate to importers and producers, is anticipated to lead to increased consumer prices. Reports indicate rising prices for essential goods such as cooking oil, cheese, and chicken, with some stores experiencing empty shelves or unavailability of imported rice. President Pezeshkian attributed the currency depreciation to inflation and sanctions, cautioning that conditions could worsen without "realistic decisions."
Casualties and Key Incidents Reported
Reports on the number of fatalities related to the protests have varied:
- At least 10 fatalities were reported following a week of protests.
- Activists abroad reported at least 36 deaths, including 30 protesters, four children, and two security forces members, along with over 2,000 detentions.
- Authorities reported at least seven fatalities, including both security personnel and protesters, over Wednesday and Thursday, occurring across four cities primarily inhabited by Iran's Lur ethnic group.
- Other reports indicated 14 individuals, including security forces, have died since the protests commenced.
- One source referred to "hundreds of fatalities reported" in the context of security forces addressing large-scale demonstrations.
Specific incidents reported include:
Tehran's Grand Bazaar
On Tuesday, protesters conducted a sit-in. Security forces used tear gas to disperse them, leading to the closure of other sections of the market. Footage later purportedly showed tear gas use at a hospital and a metro station in Tehran.
Qom
Overnight into Saturday, a man died in a grenade explosion. State-owned IRAN newspaper, citing security officials, reported the man was allegedly carrying the grenade to attack individuals. Online videos purportedly depicted street fires.
Harsin
A Basij member reportedly died in a gun and knife attack overnight into Saturday.
Ilam Province
President Pezeshkian on Monday directed an investigation into events in Ilam province, following reports of fatalities among protesters in Malekshahi County. Online videos purportedly showed security forces firing on civilians. An "incident in a hospital in the city of Ilam" was also acknowledged, with online video footage depicting security forces in riot gear entering a hospital where activists stated they were seeking demonstrators. On Tuesday night, the semiofficial Fars news agency reported that a crowd from a funeral for two deceased individuals damaged three banks in Malekshahi, resulting in one fatality and several injuries. In Malekshahi, a security force member was killed during clashes on Saturday, and Iranian media reported two assailants were killed during an attempt by "rioters" to storm a police station.
Lorestan Province
In Azna, online videos purportedly showed objects set ablaze in streets and sounds of gunfire. Fars news agency reported three deaths in Azna. In Kouhdasht, a 21-year-old volunteer from the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard's Basij force reportedly died on Wednesday night. A deputy governor in Lorestan province attributed the death to "rioters."
Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province
In Lordegan, online footage depicted demonstrators on a street with background gunfire. Fars, citing an anonymous official, reported two fatalities. The Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran also reported two demonstrator deaths there.
Isfahan Province
State media acknowledged the death of a man in Fuladshahr on Thursday, with activist groups attributing this death to police opening fire on demonstrators.
The semiofficial Fars news agency reported on Monday that approximately 250 police officers and 45 members of the Basij force were injured during the demonstrations. Security forces also reported confiscating 100 smuggled pistols. Previous security crackdowns, such as those following a gasoline price hike in 2019 and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, have reportedly resulted in significant fatalities and detentions.
Official Responses from Tehran
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made his first public comments on the demonstrations on Saturday, stating that "rioters must be put in their place." He distinguished between "protesters" and "rioters," asserting that officials should engage with protesters but that "there is no benefit to talking to rioters." Khamenei attributed the collapse of Iran's rial and the protests to "the enemy," reiterating claims, without providing specific evidence, that foreign powers such as Israel or the United States were inciting the protests.
"Rioters must be put in their place. There is no benefit to talking to rioters." – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
President Masoud Pezeshkian, while initiating a government investigation into a protest-related incident, stated on Tuesday that the government's capacity to manage the situation alone is limited, remarking, "We should not expect the government to handle all of this alone." His civilian government has indicated a willingness to negotiate with protesters but has acknowledged its limited capacity to influence the economic situation.
Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which includes the Basij force, operates under the authority of Supreme Leader Khamenei and has historically been involved in suppressing protests. The Eurasia Group, in an analysis released Friday, stated:
"Iran has no organized domestic opposition; protesters are likely acting spontaneously. The regime retains a large security apparatus and would likely suppress such dissent without losing control of the country."
Global Reactions and Market Impact
U.S. President Donald Trump has voiced strong support for the ongoing protests. On Friday, he stated that the United States "will come to their rescue" if Iran "violently kills peaceful protesters." On Saturday, he claimed the U.S. military had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an ally of Tehran. Iranian officials reportedly responded to Trump's comments by threatening to target American troops in the Middle East. President Trump later stated on Truth Social:
"KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!!"
Global crude oil prices have fluctuated in response to developments in Iran and U.S. presidential statements:
- On Tuesday, crude oil prices increased by over 2%, with U.S. crude closing at $61.15 per barrel and Brent crude settling at $65.47 per barrel, following Trump's statements.
- On Wednesday, oil prices declined by over 1% after President Trump indicated a potential shift away from military action against Iran, stating, "we've been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It's stopped. It's stopping and there's no plan for executions." U.S. crude decreased to $60.20 per barrel and Brent crude reached $64.54.
- On Monday, oil prices decreased following statements from President Trump indicating that Iran was engaging in serious discussions with Washington, suggesting a de-escalation in tensions. Brent crude futures declined to $67.28 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to $63.17 per barrel.
These market movements were interpreted as responses to potential de-escalation, including reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guards naval forces did not plan live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, a significant crude oil producer and an OPEC member, faces market observation for potential disruptions to oil supplies.
Regarding its nuclear program, Iran recently announced it was no longer enriching uranium at any site in the country, a move interpreted as signaling openness to negotiations with Western powers to ease sanctions. However, these negotiations have not yet materialized, with both former U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having previously cautioned Tehran against resuming its atomic program.