Sudan Conflict: RSF Capture of El-Fasher and Worsening Humanitarian Crisis Amid International Pressure

Sudan's Civil War Escalates Amidst Capture of El-Fasher and Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

Sudan's civil war continues to escalate, marked by the Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) capture of el-Fasher in Darfur, which followed an 18-month siege and has led to widespread displacement and allegations of severe human rights violations. The conflict has triggered a deepening humanitarian crisis, with famine conditions reported in several areas and international bodies expressing concern and calling for accountability. Recent developments include drone attacks, US sanctions targeting an RSF recruitment network, and a declared, but not yet fully observed, humanitarian ceasefire agreement by the RSF.

Escalation of Conflict and the Fall of El-Fasher

The conflict, which began in April 2023, has seen significant intensification, particularly with the Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) capture of el-Fasher in Darfur. El-Fasher, previously the Sudanese army's last stronghold in western Darfur, fell to the RSF on October 26 after an 18-month siege that reportedly included a food blockade.

This event has resulted in a geographic division within Sudan, with the RSF controlling western Sudan and parts of Kordofan, while the army holds the capital, Khartoum, and central and eastern regions along the Red Sea.

Humanitarian Impact and Displacement

Following the capture of el-Fasher, over 60,000 individuals reportedly fled the city, seeking refuge in areas such as Tawila, approximately 60-80km west. The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) reported struggling to provide adequate shelter and food for those displaced.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) confirmed famine conditions in el-Fasher and Kadugli in South Kordofan last year, and recently in Umm Baru and Kernoi in North Darfur, noting acute malnutrition rates significantly exceeding famine thresholds.

The UN has characterized the situation as the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with over 14 million people displaced and estimates of over 150,000 fatalities nationwide since April 2023. More than 24 million people face acute food insecurity across Sudan.

Allegations of Atrocities and RSF Response

Reports of widespread atrocities against civilians emerged following the RSF's advance into el-Fasher. The UN Human Rights Office detailed allegations of mass killings, summary executions, sexual violence, abductions for ransom, torture, ill-treatment, detention, and disappearances. Many of these attacks were noted as ethnically motivated, targeting non-Arab communities, particularly the Zaghawa and Fur.

Specific incidents reported include:

• Over 6,000 individuals killed during a three-day period in late October in el-Fasher.
• Approximately 4,400 deaths within el-Fasher between October 25 and October 27, and over 1,600 additional deaths among those attempting to escape.
• Reports of RSF fighters firing heavy weapons into a crowd at a university dormitory, resulting in approximately 500 fatalities.
• Allegations of 600 people, including 50 children, being executed while seeking refuge in university facilities.
• Over 460 civilians reportedly shot dead at a hospital in el-Fasher on October 28, according to the WHO.
• Around 300 individuals dying from RSF shelling and drone attacks between October 23 and October 24 at the Abu Shouk camp for displaced people.
• Reports of sexual violence, including rape and gang rape, against women and girls from African Zaghawa non-Arab tribes.

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the RSF, announced an investigation into reported violations by his soldiers during the capture of el-Fasher. He expressed regret and stated a committee arrived in the city to investigate, and the RSF has released footage purporting to show the arrest of militiaman Abu Lulu, accused of summary executions. The RSF denies widespread allegations that the killings are ethnically motivated or follow a pattern of targeting non-Arab populations. Previous commitments for investigations by Gen. Dagalo have reportedly not been fulfilled.

UN-backed human rights experts reported that the campaign of destruction in October by the RSF against non-Arab communities in Darfur shows "hallmarks of genocide," citing the fulfillment of at least three criteria of the 1948 "Genocide Convention." The US State Department had previously concluded that RSF members committed genocide. Both the RSF and the Sudanese army have faced accusations of committing war crimes.

Other Significant Incidents and Fighting

Fighting has intensified across several regions:

• Al-Luweib Village, North Kordofan: A drone strike on a funeral gathering on Monday reportedly killed at least 40 people, attributed by officials and activists to the RSF. The RSF has not commented.
• Bara and El-Obeid: Around 20,000 people reportedly fled to el-Obeid after the RSF captured Bara town. The UN reported summary executions of civilians by RSF fighters in Bara. El-Obeid, a strategic city connecting Khartoum to Darfur, remains under army control despite RSF attempts to penetrate it.
• El-Obeid Drone Strike: A drone strike on a residential property in el-Obeid killed 13 people, including eight children, attributed to the RSF by the Sudan Doctors' Network.
• Kouik, South Kordofan: An attack on a military hospital resulted in 22 fatalities, including the hospital's director and three medical staff, attributed to paramilitary forces.
• Er Rahad, North Kordofan: A drone attack, attributed to the RSF, struck a vehicle transporting displaced families, killing at least 24 people, including eight children and two infants.
• Kadugli, South Kordofan: The city is experiencing catastrophic hunger levels, having been surrounded and deprived of supplies by the RSF. A separate RSF drone attack in Kadugli reportedly killed 15 people, including seven children.
• Heglig Oil Field: The RSF declared control over Heglig, Sudan's largest oil field.
• Aid Convoys: Drone attacks, attributed to the RSF, struck a World Food Programme (WFP) aid convoy in North Kordofan, killing one person and wounding others, and another near a WFP facility in Blue Nile province, wounding a WFP worker.

Expulsion of UN Food Aid Officials

Sudan's military government expelled two senior officials from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), declaring them "personae non grata" and ordering their departure within 72 hours. The WFP stated the decision comes at a critical time for humanitarian needs, with 24 million people facing acute food insecurity. The military government has not publicly provided a reason for the expulsions but has previously accused aid organizations of violating local laws and issuing inaccurate famine reports. State news agency Suna reported that the government affirmed the expulsions would not impact cooperation with the WFP. The WFP is engaging with Sudanese authorities to resolve the situation.

International Response and Peace Efforts

International bodies, including the European Union, African Union, and the UN Security Council, have expressed concern. UN chief António Guterres called for an immediate halt to the violence and urged both the army and the RSF to engage in negotiations. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has warned that reported atrocities could constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The RSF announced its agreement to a humanitarian ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States, also supported by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The RSF indicated readiness for discussions to end hostilities. Sudan's military-led government has not issued an official response to the RSF's statement. Prior to this, Sudan's Defence Minister acknowledged US efforts but emphasized ongoing preparations for military action. Sudan's chargé d'affaires in Nairobi stated the government would only agree to a halt if the RSF were dismantled and its leader held accountable, also indicating a lack of information regarding a truce proposal. Reports of drone attacks near Khartoum and Atbara followed the RSF's ceasefire announcement. Sudan's ambassador to South Africa indicated that an agreement to the plan was premature, citing past experiences where truces were allegedly used by the RSF for repositioning.

The United States has implemented sanctions against a network it alleges is involved in recruiting former Colombian soldiers and training individuals to participate in Sudan's civil war. Eight entities and individuals, primarily Colombian nationals, were sanctioned by the US Treasury, accused of aiding the RSF by providing infantry and drone pilots, as well as tactical and technical expertise, and allegedly training children to fight. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has stated that individuals who "spill young blood for money in foreign countries must be punished criminally." The network includes a dual Colombian-Italian national, a former military officer, reportedly based in the United Arab Emirates. The UAE has been accused of arming the RSF, allegations it denies, though UN reports have presented information suggesting military support to the RSF.

The conflict in Sudan, a power struggle between former allies who came to power in a 2021 coup, has been described by the UN as the world's largest humanitarian crisis, leading to calls for accountability for perpetrators and urgent civilian protection.