Myanmar Military Conducts Election Amidst Widespread Conflict and Criticism\n\nMyanmar's military administration is conducting a multi-stage election, marking the first nationwide vote since the military seized power almost five years ago. The election process is scheduled to occur in three stages over one month, with the initial phase held on December 28. This election takes place amid ongoing civil conflict and has drawn criticism internationally and domestically.\n\n### Election Logistics and Political Landscape\n\nIn Aungmyaythazan, Mandalay, retired Lieutenant-General Tayza Kyaw of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a party backed by the military, held a campaign rally. Approximately 300-400 attendees were present, many of whom were families affected by a March earthquake in Mandalay, and dispersed after the event concluded.\n\nThe National League for Democracy (NLD), the party that won a majority of seats in the 2020 general election, has been dissolved by the military administration. Its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, is currently detained in an undisclosed location. Large sections of the country remain inaccessible for voting due to ongoing conflict. In areas where voting is planned, public expression regarding the election is restricted. Party officials at the Mandalay rally advised against journalists interviewing attendees, citing potential issues with their statements. Plain-clothes military intelligence officers were also observed at the event.\n\n### Restrictions on Dissent\n\nThe military administration has implemented laws that criminalize actions perceived as undermining the electoral process. In July, a new law was introduced, criminalizing "any speech, organizing, inciting, protesting, or distributing leaflets in order to destroy a part of the electoral process." Tayzar San, a doctor who organized early protests against the 2021 coup, was charged under this law for distributing leaflets advocating an election boycott. A reward has been offered for information leading to his arrest. In September, three individuals in Yangon received sentences ranging from 42 to 49 years for distributing stickers depicting a bullet and a ballot box. A large poster in Mandalay encourages cooperation against "those harming the union."\n\n### Military Leadership's Stance and International Relations\n\nJunta leader Min Aung Hlaing has expressed confidence that the election will provide a degree of legitimacy. He attended a Christmas mass in Yangon and delivered remarks condemning "hatred and resentment between individuals." Min Aung Hlaing faces charges from the UN and human rights groups concerning the Rohingya crisis, and the 2021 coup initiated a civil conflict that has resulted in an estimated 90,000 fatalities, according to ACLED data analysis.\n\nChina has provided diplomatic, technical, and financial support for the election. The Myanmar army, equipped with Chinese and Russian weaponry, has reported regaining territory from armed opposition groups over the past two years. Min Aung Hlaing's administration anticipates including additional reconquered territory in the third stage of the election. With the NLD dissolved and its leader detained, the USDP is expected to secure a significant victory, contrasting with its six percent share of parliamentary seats in the 2020 election. The election is viewed by some, including China, as a potential path for the military to resolve the political deadlock resulting from the coup.\n\n### Ongoing Conflict and Local Impact\n\nThe civil conflict continues in regions outside of urban centers like Mandalay. Areas across the Irrawaddy River, such as the Mingun temple complex, are contested territories. People's Defence Forces (PDFs) control numerous villages and conduct ambushes against army convoys. Travel to Mingun requires navigating multiple checkpoints. A local police commander in the region stated that he and his security detail carry weapons due to the necessity of moving within the village. He described his opponents, including a group identified as the Unicorn Guerrilla Force, as non-negotiating. The commander noted that the election would not be held in most villages north of his position and observed that "Everyone here has taken sides in this conflict... no-one is ready to compromise." Access to Mingun was deemed too hazardous for journalists due to potential encounters with PDFs.