Numerous political developments are anticipated for 2026, influencing control of power in Washington and the agenda of President Trump. These developments are expected to be consequential. Here are some key questions for the upcoming year:
Economic Outlook and Affordability
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Economic Perception: Public opinion polls indicate dissatisfaction with the economy. A December NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found 63% of respondents stating the country is headed in the wrong direction. President Trump's overall approval rating is 38%, and 36% for his handling of the economy. A majority of the public perceives the country to be in a recession. Prices are identified as the primary economic concern.
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Impact on Elections: Democratic candidates achieved electoral success in 2025 special congressional elections and off-year gubernatorial elections. Historically, the party in power has experienced electoral challenges during periods of public economic dissatisfaction. This trend may continue if economic perceptions do not improve.
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Affordability Initiatives: President Trump's policies, including tariffs, have been associated with increased costs. Polling indicates public perception that tariffs contribute to budget concerns (two-thirds in an NPR poll) and that the President has contributed more to raising prices than lowering them (November Yahoo/YouGov poll, 2-to-1 margin). A Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of tariffs is pending. The administration has reduced some agricultural tariffs and proposed a bailout for farmers to address prices. Potential future actions include new tax credits or pressuring corporations on pricing. The White House has organized events focused on "affordability," where the President has also addressed immigration and cultural topics.
Congressional and Legislative Landscape
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Presidential Campaigning: President Trump maintains popularity among the Republican base but exhibits lower approval among independent voters. While approval ratings among Republicans remain solid, the President's overall job approval is among the lowest of his second term. Polling and 2025 election results indicate a decrease in support for President Trump among independent voters and Latino voters compared to 2024. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles stated plans for increased presidential campaign trail appearances. President Trump's endorsements have demonstrated influence in Republican primaries, but have had differing outcomes in competitive general elections. As a term-limited president turning 80 in June, the November midterms could impact the perception of his political influence.
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Congressional Departures: A high number of non-reelection announcements by incumbents from the party in power can precede significant electoral shifts. A record 56 members of Congress (over 10% of 535) have announced they will not seek re-election, including 44 House incumbents (25 Republicans, 19 Democrats).
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Legislative Agenda: President Trump signed a spending package into law in 2025. The potential for further legislative accomplishments is uncertain. The administration has utilized executive actions and public pressure, and has focused on centralizing power within the White House during a period of Republican control in Congress.
Presidential Actions and Policy Areas
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Unilateral Actions: Foreign policy and immigration have been areas where the Trump administration has taken action without congressional involvement. Actions include naval strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific, statements regarding Venezuela, and initiatives related to peace in Ukraine and a Middle East ceasefire. Questions exist regarding the extent of future actions concerning Venezuela, the continuation of naval strikes, potential for further internal bombings, and potential congressional responses to unilateral actions. The continuation of current immigration and deportation policies is a topic of discussion. Public approval for the administration's immigration policies has declined, and polls indicate a majority views the deportation approach as too harsh or excessive.
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Health Care: President Trump has consistently advocated for health care reform superior to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), without legislative enactment in his time in politics. A government shutdown occurred last fall concerning ACA subsidies. A compromise agreement between moderate Democrats and Republican leaders facilitated a vote on ACA subsidies and government reopening. The bill and other related legislation did not pass. The potential for the President to advocate for solutions, particularly in an election year when healthcare costs are a primary voter concern, is being observed.
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Government Shutdown Risk: The potential for another government shutdown regarding subsidies, the allocation of public blame, and the perception among Democratic voters are topics of consideration.
Democratic Party Dynamics
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Democratic Base Engagement: The level of engagement from the Democratic voter base is a factor in potential Democratic control of the House in upcoming elections. Democratic voters in 2025 exhibited lower approval of their party's leadership compared to Republicans. Despite lower party approval, Democrats achieved electoral successes in 2025, suggesting that opposition to the President and Republican Party may be a strong motivator for Democratic voters.
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Democratic Campaign Strategies: Democratic campaign models vary, exemplified by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) stated that the party does not require a single approach, advocating for diverse representation focused on working-class interests. Republican strategies may involve associating Democratic candidates with Mayor Mamdani. The effectiveness of this approach is a subject of observation, particularly following President Trump's public comments regarding the incoming New York mayor.
Administration and Future Elections
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Cabinet Turnover: Turnover in White House and executive branch positions is common. During President Trump's first term, there were four Chiefs of Staff and four different individuals served as Defense Secretary and Secretary of State (including acting and confirmed roles). Reports in 2025 have mentioned Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in discussions regarding potential departures, but the President has retained them in their positions.
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Redistricting Outcomes: Mid-decade redistricting outcomes are a significant factor in congressional control. The current redistricting process has led to a reduction in competitive electoral districts, a trend observed since 2018. The narrow margin in the House of Representatives makes each electoral seat influential. President Trump encouraged states with Republican majorities to redraw districts to favor the Republican Party, with varied results. Democrats have had success in responding to Republican redistricting efforts. California Governor Gavin Newsom obtained voter approval to temporarily suspend a requirement for independent commission-drawn districts, potentially increasing the number of Democratic seats. This outcome represents a significant development for Governor Newsom, who is considered a potential candidate for 2028.
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Positioning for 2028: 2026 is anticipated as the period when discussions regarding the 2028 presidential election will commence. Observance will be directed towards individuals making visits to Iowa and New Hampshire. Numerous individuals within both the Republican and Democratic parties are expected to position themselves for the 2028 presidential election, presenting visions for the country's future. The 2028 election is projected to be the first open presidential election in twelve years, and potentially the first in over three decades without a candidate named Trump, Biden, Clinton, or Bush on the ballot. The field of potential candidates is currently under development.