Presidential Elections Underway in Central African Republic and Guinea
Citizens in Guinea and the Central African Republic (CAR) are preparing to vote for their presidents, who will serve seven-year terms. While both elections could proceed to run-off ballots, the incumbent leaders are widely expected to secure outright victories in the first round, each garnering over 50% of the vote.
Central African Republic Election
The CAR, a landlocked nation, has experienced chronic instability for decades, marked by the presence of armed groups. From 2013 to 2016, interventions by African, French, and UN peacekeepers contributed to averting deeper inter-communal violence. The national government in Bangui has faced challenges in asserting its authority in distant regions. Despite persistent challenges, multi-party politics has largely been maintained, allowing for a notable degree of opposition and protest. This year has seen two major rebel groups re-engage in the peace process, initiating disarmament and demobilization. The country also operates a special court for human rights crimes, staffed by national and international judges.
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a mathematician and former university vice-chancellor, initially entered politics as prime minister. Following a period of transition, he was elected head of state. Now nearing the end of his second term, Touadéra has implemented constitutional reforms to remove term limits, allowing him to seek re-election. This decision resulted in a boycott by a segment of the opposition. Despite prior speculation, his prominent electoral rival, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, has been permitted to participate.
Guinea Election
In contrast, Guinea, located on Africa's west coast, is preparing for an election where Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya, leader of the September 2021 coup that removed civilian President Alpha Condé, is seeking to transition to a constitutionally elected ruler. Doumbouya faces eight challengers, but his campaign has maintained a prominent presence across Conakry, the capital. Cellou Dalein Diallo, a leading opposition figure over the past decade with significant support among the Peul community, has been excluded from the contest.
The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) has expressed relief regarding the return to an elected government in Guinea, despite the constraints on political choice. This follows the bloc's experience of the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger approximately a year ago, after military regimes in those countries, which seized power between 2020 and 2023, declined to commit to clear timeframes for civilian rule restoration.
Doumbouya's approach has differed from some neighboring regimes. While maintaining relations with the junta in Mali, he has pursued a methodical constitutional review leading to the current vote, although delayed beyond Ecowas's initial preferences. His international relations strategy also differs from neighboring governments that have established security ties with Russia and altered partnerships with France. Doumbouya has maintained relations with Western governments, including Paris, with Guinean officials describing the French Development Agency as a key partner.
The Doumbouya administration has received a measured response from France, the West generally, and Ecowas, despite documented human rights concerns. His removal of Condé — who had overseen a constitutional referendum enabling him to seek a third term and presided over periods of security force violence — was met with public celebration in Conakry and limited international criticism.
Doumbouya's actions in initiating the long-delayed trial of those accused in the 2009 stadium massacre were viewed positively internationally. However, during his rule, youth protesters were shot, and civil society activists Billo Bah and Foniké Mengué were detained and remain unaccounted for, with regional and international reactions being subdued.
The decision by Guinea to remain within Ecowas and restore elected government, despite Doumbouya's earlier pledge that no junta member would stand, has been met with relief by regional leaders and European governments as a move towards restoring constitutional order. Amid impacts from jihadist groups in southern Mali and Burkina Faso, the progress towards constitutional stability in Guinea, despite persistent civil-rights concerns, has been acknowledged.
Similar acknowledgments apply to Touadéra's bid for a third term in the CAR, a country experiencing a period of transition following years of insecurity. The UN peacekeeping force, Minusca, is assisting the government in restoring basic administration and services. While the CAR relies significantly on Russian military advice, President Touadéra has worked to rebuild relations with France and maintain partnerships with the EU and the UN. Given the ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan and domestic fragilities, international partners have expressed support, which contrasts with the frustrations of opponents who view a Touadéra third term as illegitimate.