Myanmar Schedules Phased Elections Amid Ongoing Conflict
Myanmar's military administration has announced a phased general election, scheduled to commence on December 28 and conclude in late January. This initiative is presented as an effort to restore national stability and alleviate the country's diplomatic isolation following the 2021 military coup.
Conflict and Humanitarian Situation
The elections are set against a backdrop of ongoing civil conflict. Since the 2021 coup, military actions have resulted in widespread displacement and detentions. Aid agencies report that over 11 million people are experiencing food insecurity. The military is also engaged in efforts to regain territory lost to opposition forces since the coup.
International and Domestic Reactions
United Nations Secretary General AntĂłnio Guterres, speaking at an ASEAN summit in October, questioned the feasibility of free and fair elections in Myanmar given the current conflict and the military's human rights record. Most Western governments have declined to send observers, characterizing the elections as illegitimate.
To manage the electoral process, the military has implemented a new law prohibiting "interference." Reports indicate that hundreds of individuals have been detained under this legislation, some for social media posts critical of the elections or for engaging with such content. Military leader Min Aung Hlaing has acknowledged that elections will not be conducted in approximately half of the country, comprising contested or rebel-held areas.
Critics suggest the election aims to establish a parliament dominated by the military's allied party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The USDP previously lost to Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) in the 2020 elections. The NLD is currently banned, and Suu Kyi, along with other party leaders, remains imprisoned.
Military Posture and External Influence
Recent analyses suggest the military has begun to regain tactical advantage, pushing back opposition forces in several strategic locations. Factors cited for this shift include a conscription campaign, increased deployment of sophisticated drones, and improved battlefield organization. Concurrently, opposition groups are noted for their fragmentation and perceived strategic missteps.
China, alongside Russia and India, has expressed support for the elections. Beijing's perspective, as interpreted by analysts, views Myanmar's military as a stabilizing force necessary to protect significant infrastructure projects—such as gas and oil pipelines—and broader geopolitical ambitions, particularly the China-Myanmar economic corridor. China has reportedly pressured ethnic armed organizations in the north to cede territory and to cease arming other rebel factions.
Opposition Challenges and Public Sentiment
Analyst Min Zaw Oo observes signs of fatigue among some young individuals who joined the armed resistance post-coup, with some reportedly seeking livelihood opportunities in neighboring countries. Despite this, some opposition commanders, such as Ko Ta Mar, reiterate their commitment to the objective of ending military involvement in politics, while expressing frustration over the opposition's coordination. They reject the elections as a temporary measure that could exacerbate long-term issues.
Conversely, analyst David Mathieson indicates a growing sentiment among parts of the populace for any measure that might offer relief from the protracted conflict, economic hardship, and displacement. He notes a perception among some citizens that the shadow National Unity Government lacks a clear plan, leading some to consider that even a military-backed regime might offer a path to stabilization. The military appears to be leveraging this sentiment to achieve its goals of domestic order and reduced international isolation. The subsequent rounds of elections are slated for January.