Federal Reserve Bank of New York: March 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations reveals a mixed but generally more pessimistic outlook among households.

Households are anticipating higher inflation in the short and medium term, alongside a significant surge in gas price expectations.

While longer-term inflation expectations remained stable, the labor market presented a complex picture, with improved job finding prospects counterbalanced by increased worries about job loss and a worsening unemployment rate. Meanwhile, household financial situations are viewed with growing pessimism, despite stable income and spending growth expectations.

Inflation Outlook

Households anticipate an uptick in inflation over the short and medium horizons. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.4%, and median three-year-ahead expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%. In contrast, median five-year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 3.0%. Inflation uncertainty also saw an increase across all horizons.

A notable surge was observed in commodity price expectations. Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations saw a significant rise of 5.3 percentage points to 9.4%, marking the highest level since March 2022. Food cost expectations increased by 0.7 percentage point to 6%, and rent expectations rose by 1.2 percentage points to 7.1%.

Median home price growth expectations also increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3%. Medical care cost expectations remained unchanged at 9.7%, while college education cost expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 9.0%.

Labor Market Perceptions

The labor market presented a nuanced outlook. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%. Simultaneously, mean unemployment expectations—the perceived probability of a higher U.S. unemployment rate in one year—increased by 3.6 percentage points to 43.5%, reaching its highest level since April 2025.

Concerns about job security also intensified. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 14.4%. Adding to the dynamic, the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily saw a rise of 2.4 percentage points to 18.3%.

Despite these worsening job loss expectations, there was a silver lining regarding job prospects. The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost improved, increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%.

Household Financial Health

Household income and spending expectations remained largely stable. The median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 2.9%, while median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased slightly by 0.2 percentage point to 5.1%.

Regarding credit and debt, perceptions of current credit access improved. However, expectations for future credit availability slightly deteriorated. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 12.3%.

Expectations for a year-ahead change in taxes decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1%. In contrast, median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.8%.

Consumers expressed increased pessimism about their future household financial situations, with perceptions about current and year-ahead financial situations deteriorating to the highest level of pessimism since April 2025.

Further reflecting this sentiment, the mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 36.3%.