Europe Faces Looming Jet Fuel Shortage, Industry Warns

A major European airport industry group has warned that the continent could face a systemic jet fuel shortage within three weeks if maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted.

The warning comes as the peak summer travel season begins, with some airports already reporting supply constraints and airlines implementing fuel surcharges.

The Warning from ACI Europe

The airport industry group ACI Europe communicated its assessment in a letter to European Union officials and in statements to Bloomberg News.

The group stated that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in a "significant and stable way" within the next three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage is "set to become a reality for the EU."

ACI Europe warned that a shortage would ripple through the aviation system and affect economic activity across the European Union.

Background and Supply Dependency

Europe's vulnerability stems from its heavy reliance on imported jet fuel and limited domestic refining capacity dedicated to its production. According to ACI Europe, approximately 30% of Europe's jet fuel imports typically originate from the Gulf area.

The pressure on supply is already evident. Seven airports in Italy have restricted access to jet fuel in recent days as supplies tighten. ACI Europe stated the current situation has exposed Europe's dependency on imported fuel.

Market and Price Impact

Jet fuel prices have moved in correlation with crude oil prices. Following the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices increased above $100 per barrel, raising costs for airlines. As of the Friday referenced in the reports, Brent crude was trading near $96 per barrel.

In response to higher costs, some carriers have begun implementing fuel surcharges and additional fees for customers.

Broader Industry and Official Assessments

Other analyses and officials have echoed concerns about Europe's jet fuel supply:

• The climate campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) stated that the Middle East crisis has contributed to an increase in airline ticket prices, estimating an average increase of approximately $105 (90 euros) for long-haul flights from Europe since the outbreak of the war.
• Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned last week that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so" of remaining jet fuel supply.
• Market analysts have noted that Northwest Europe is one of the regions most exposed to the jet fuel crisis, with imports dropping from historical norms.

Official Response and Preparedness

In response to the situation, ACI Europe has formally requested the European Commission to monitor supply and production levels over the next six months.

Separately, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned on Tuesday that Europe faces a difficult summer with possible fuel shortages. He stated there might be "security of supply problems on jet fuel and possibly diesel" and noted that airlines are reducing demand by closing some routes. Commissioner Jorgensen dismissed the possibility of imposing a new windfall tax on oil and gas companies.

Airlines are preparing for increased summer demand, a period when fuel consumption typically peaks.