Syria Under New Leadership: A Year After Assad's Departure
One year ago, a rebel offensive led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa, and his militia group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced from Idlib towards Damascus. This led to the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, who is now in Russia. Ahmed al-Sharaa currently serves as the interim president of Syria.
The conflict has left Syria in a state of disrepair, with many cities and villages featuring buildings damaged by war. Despite ongoing challenges, a shift in governance has occurred.
Leadership and Internal Dynamics
Ahmed al-Sharaa has engaged with international entities, including Saudi Arabia and Western nations, presenting himself as a figure for Syria's future stability. In May, a meeting between al-Sharaa and then-US President Donald Trump took place, where Trump reportedly described him as a "young attractive tough guy."
Domestically, Sharaa's authority does not extend to the Kurdish-controlled north-east or to certain parts of the south where Syrian Druze communities, supported by Israeli allies, seek autonomy. Concerns have also been noted among Alawite communities on the coast, recalling past incidents.
Sharaa's background includes fighting for al-Qaeda in Iraq and serving as a commander with the group that evolved into Islamic State. He later disassociated from and engaged in conflict with both IS and al-Qaeda. Individuals who met him in Idlib reported a shift in his perspectives towards governing Syria's diverse religious landscape, which includes a Sunni majority, Kurds, Druze, and Christians.
The Fall of the Previous Government
The HTS offensive progressed rapidly, capturing Aleppo in three days. This contrasted with the years-long conflict for control of the city between 2012 and 2016, which concluded with the previous government's victory, aided by Russian air and artillery support. By the end of the year following the offensive, government troops had largely disbanded across the country, with reports indicating a decreased willingness to fight for the former administration.
Following Assad's departure, Sharaa, appearing in civilian attire, stated that Syria was fatigued by war and posed no threat to its neighbors or the West, committing to govern for all Syrians. This message garnered interest from some Syrians and foreign governments. Israel, however, dismissed these assurances, and some jihadist groups criticized Sharaa as a traitor.
External Relations and US Engagement
Sharaa's efforts to engage with Western nations have yielded results. Within two weeks of assuming power, a delegation of senior American diplomats met with him. Subsequently, the US removed a $10 million bounty on his arrest, and sanctions imposed on Syria have seen reductions, including the suspension of the Caesar Act. A notable event was Sharaa's visit to the White House in November, making him the first Syrian president to do so.
During his meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, Trump reportedly sprayed Sharaa with cologne and offered him a supply for his wife. Saudi Arabia and Western governments generally view Sharaa as a critical factor for stability in the region, cautioning against a return to civil conflict given the lingering effects of decades of centralized rule and a lengthy war.
Internal Security and Sectarian Concerns
Sharaa, a Sunni Muslim, leads a government that does not control the entirety of Syria. Efforts to gain acceptance from Kurdish and Druze communities have been unsuccessful. The Alawite community, from which the Assad family originated, remains apprehensive. Historically, the Alawite minority, comprising about 10% of the population, formed the base of the previous government. Preventing further significant outbreaks of violence is a primary challenge for the current administration.
Justice and Human Rights
Ahead of the anniversary of Assad's departure, the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) expressed concerns regarding the pace of justice. The OHCHR noted that while some initial steps have been taken, more is required. The OHCHR reported that hundreds of individuals have been killed over the past year by security forces, groups associated with the former government, local armed groups, and unidentified individuals. Other reported violations include sexual violence, arbitrary detentions, property destruction, forced evictions, and restrictions on freedoms.
Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Bedouin communities were cited as being significantly affected by this violence, which has been exacerbated by increased hate speech. A risk for the upcoming period is a recurrence of sectarian violence, such as that witnessed last March in Alawite areas. During this period, clashes between new government forces and pro-former government fighters reportedly led to the deaths of approximately 1,400 people, predominantly adult men, but also including women, elderly, disabled individuals, and children. The Sharaa government cooperated with a UN investigation, which found no evidence of government orders for these attacks but noted concerns about the government's ability to control armed Sunni groups supposedly integrated into its security forces. Some individuals responsible for the massacres have faced trial.
In July, violence erupted between Druze and Bedouin communities in Sweida province. When government forces intervened, they engaged in conflict with Druze militias. Israel responded with airstrikes, including one that impacted the Ministry of Defence in Damascus. A US-mediated ceasefire was implemented to prevent further escalation, but tens of thousands of people were displaced.
Israeli Border and Security Dynamics
Israel remains a significant factor in the region. Following Assad's departure, Israel conducted major airstrikes against remaining military infrastructure and expanded its control over Syrian territory from the occupied Golan Heights, citing national security interests related to preventing weapons from falling into unauthorized hands. Attempts by the US to broker a security agreement between Israel and Syria have stalled. Syria seeks a return to the 1974 agreement, while Israel demands demilitarization of a large area south of Damascus and retention of seized land.
In the month prior to this report, Israeli ground incursions into Syria intensified. A raid by IDF troops in the border village of Beit Jinn on November 28 reportedly led to clashes, with six Israelis wounded and at least 13 local residents killed, along with dozens wounded, according to state media. The Damascus government condemned the incident as a war crime. Donald Trump commented on his Truth Social platform, expressing satisfaction with Sharaa's stabilization efforts and urging Israel to maintain dialogue with Syria.
A resident of Beit Jinn, Khalil Abu Daher, recounted the November 28 raid, stating his 17-year-old daughter was killed by gunfire. His 9-year-old daughter sustained a hip injury. Residents expressed desires for peace, security, and access to medical facilities.
Socio-Economic Conditions and Future Outlook
One year after the change in leadership, the new administration remains in power. US support has been evident, sanctions are being eased, and the economy shows some activity with new business agreements, including modernization of oil and gas infrastructure and privatization of airports. However, these developments have not yet significantly improved conditions for most Syrians. A government-led reconstruction fund is absent, with rebuilding efforts largely falling to individuals.
Unresolved sectarian tensions pose a risk of renewed conflict. Dialogue with Israel, mediated by the US, has not progressed. The government in Damascus is centralized around Sharaa, the foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani, and close associates, with no clear framework for accountable governance reported.
Many Syrians express concerns about future stability, lack of essential services like schools and clinics, and ongoing safety issues, according to a local resident.