Syria One Year After Assad's Departure: Leadership Transition, International Engagement, and Persistent Challenges
Transition of Power
One year ago, an offensive led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and his group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced from Idlib towards Damascus. This offensive resulted in the departure of President Bashar al-Assad and his family to Russia. Ahmed al-Sharaa currently serves as the interim president of Syria. The country continues to face significant challenges, with many urban and rural areas remaining in a state of disrepair due to conflict.
International Relations and Domestic Control
Al-Sharaa has engaged in diplomatic efforts to secure international recognition and support for a stable future for Syria. These efforts have included discussions with Saudi Arabia and a meeting with US President Donald Trump, who publicly described al-Sharaa as a "young attractive tough guy." Domestically, al-Sharaa's authority is not universally established across Syria. Areas in the north-east remain under Kurdish control, while parts of the south, inhabited by Syrian Druze, have expressed aspirations for a separate state supported by Israeli allies. Communities along the coast, particularly the Alawites (the sect associated with the former Assad regime), have expressed apprehension regarding security.
Al-Sharaa's past includes involvement with al-Qaeda in Iraq and later as a commander with the group that evolved into Islamic State. He subsequently distanced himself from and engaged in conflict with both IS and al-Qaeda, developing a pragmatic approach to governance in Syria's religiously diverse context.
Military Campaign and Collapse of Regime Forces
The HTS offensive, which commenced in early December a year prior, achieved rapid territorial gains. Aleppo, a major northern city, was captured by HTS forces within three days. This contrasted with the prolonged period of conflict for control of the city between 2012 and 2016, which concluded with a victory for the Assad regime following Russian military intervention. By the end of the year, government troops across the country exhibited widespread withdrawal, with both conscripts and loyalists no longer participating in conflict for the former regime.
Sharaa's Leadership and International Reception
Following Assad's departure, al-Sharaa assumed leadership and conveyed a message of national reconciliation and non-aggression towards neighboring countries and Western states. Israel, however, expressed skepticism regarding al-Sharaa's administration, while some jihadist hardliners criticized him for perceived compromises of his religious and historical allegiances.
Concerns regarding potential destabilization from Islamic State sleeper cells were noted during al-Sharaa's ascent. Islamic State in Syria has demonstrated reduced operational capacity, with recent attacks primarily targeting Kurdish-led forces in the north-east, although some attacks against government-controlled cities have been reported recently. IS social media channels have accused al-Sharaa of betraying Sunni Syrians and acting as an agent for Western powers, without providing verifiable evidence.
Western Engagement and Sanctions Relief
Al-Sharaa's diplomatic engagement with Western nations has resulted in notable policy changes. Within two weeks of his ascent to power, a US delegation visited Syria, leading to the removal of a $10 million bounty previously placed on al-Sharaa. Sanctions imposed on Syria under the Assad regime have been progressively reduced, with the Caesar Act suspended and under consideration for repeal by the US Congress. A significant development occurred in November when al-Sharaa visited the White House, becoming the first Syrian leader to do so. Saudi Arabia and Western governments view al-Sharaa as a key figure for stabilizing Syria and potentially preventing a return to civil conflict, which could exacerbate regional instability.
Regional Divisions and Sectarian Tensions
Al-Sharaa's government, predominantly Sunni Muslim, does not exert control over the entirety of Syria. Attempts to integrate Kurdish regions in the north-east and Druze areas in the south under Damascus's authority have not been successful. The Alawite community on the coast, which formed the basis of the Assad regime's power, remains cautious. The potential for renewed sectarian violence poses a significant challenge for the government.
Human Rights and Justice Concerns
The UN human rights office (OHCHR) expressed concerns regarding the slow progress in addressing past human rights violations following Assad's fall. The OHCHR reported that hundreds of individuals have been killed in the past year by various actors, including security forces, elements associated with the former government, local armed groups, and unidentified individuals. Other reported violations include sexual violence, arbitrary detentions, property destruction, forced evictions, and restrictions on freedoms of expression and assembly, primarily affecting Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Bedouin communities.
In March, sectarian violence occurred in Alawite areas, leading to an estimated 1,400 fatalities, predominantly adult men, but also including women, elderly, disabled individuals, and children. A UN investigation found no evidence that the authorities ordered these attacks but noted concerns about the government's ability to control associated armed Sunni groups. In July, violence between Druze and Bedouin communities erupted in Sweida province. Government forces attempting to restore order engaged with Druze militias, prompting Israeli airstrikes that damaged the Ministry of Defense in Damascus. A US-brokered ceasefire was implemented to prevent further escalation.
The Israel Question and Border Incidents
Israel's presence remains a critical factor in the Syrian landscape. Following Assad's fall, Israel conducted air strikes to target remaining Syrian military capabilities and expanded its control in the Golan Heights. Efforts by the US to mediate a security agreement between Israel and Syria have stalled. Syria seeks a return to the 1974 agreement, while Israel demands demilitarization of a significant area south of Damascus and intends to retain its territorial gains.
Recent months have seen increased Israeli ground incursions into Syria. For instance, on November 28, Israeli forces conducted a raid in the border village of Beit Jinn, reportedly to apprehend Sunni militants. This operation resulted in the deaths of at least 13 local residents and dozens of injuries, with six Israeli personnel also wounded. The Damascus government condemned the incident as a war crime. US President Trump commented on the raid, urging Israel to maintain dialogue with Syria to support its stabilization. A resident of Beit Jinn, Khalil Abu Daher, reported that his 17-year-old daughter was killed and his nine-year-old daughter was injured during the raid.
Current State and Future Challenges
One year after the transition of power, the new Syrian administration has maintained control and secured some international backing. Sanctions relief is underway, and the economy is exhibiting some activity, including projects to modernize oil and gas infrastructure and privatize airports. However, these developments have not yet significantly improved the daily lives of most Syrians, and no comprehensive rebuilding fund is in place, leaving reconstruction efforts largely to individuals. Unresolved sectarian tensions persist, and the US-mediated dialogue with Israel has not advanced. The Syrian government faces challenges in establishing accountable governance structures beyond a core leadership group. Concerns regarding security and the future remain prevalent among parts of the Syrian population.